North West England Regional Thread

[cheshire snow]

sat cs

Forget saturday,wait until Monday

C.S

Edited January 10, 2013 by cheshire snow

[chicken soup]

Why its gonna miss us again monday.

[iand61]

Matt Hugo on twitter

The 12z ECM is an absolute snow-fest of a run! Jeez if that verifies it maintains the cold but a major risk of snow with it.

7:03pm - 10 Jan 13

Matt lives locally so I hope that he is looking at the absolute snow-fest he talks about from an IMBY point of view.

[cheshire snow]

Why its gonna miss us again monday.

not according to the gfs/ecm/ukmo

rain/snow who knows but there will be PPN about

C.S

[johnwirral]

Still snow for us on the GEM on Monday, although it is usually a few sausages short of a barbie

[Jan]

I don't think we will get the snow except for maybe the Pennine areas, East Lancs etc, we will all have to wait and see how it all develops over the next few days, it is going to be very cold though

[cheshire snow]

Met Office outlook Sat-Mon

Saturday rain or snow perhaps effecting the south of the region

Sunday Dry bright but cold

Monday RISK of sleet/snow later in the day

C.S

[iand61]

Just been in the model thread and there are certainly some excited folk in there.

In some cases, not without reason although I still feel that some are heading for a reality check if and when snow actually arrives.

The general agreement seems to be though that this, as usual will be a midlands south event with most of the action coming from southerly tracking lows.

That got me thinking in that why do lows such as those forecast always follow a track which leaves us on the dry northern edge or even sink further south into France.

Surely there is no set path for LP systems and therefore no reason, other than bad luck why this happens on almost every occasion.

Or am I missing something here.

[snowdrifter]

Just read through recent posts in this thread. Having gone through 10 winters on netweather as a NW England member (on the coast to boot!) I think the best policy is to accept that our location has less of a chance of snow in most set-ups, being sheltered by the Penines to the East, the sea to the west and the south being a non-cold direction! Having said all that WHEN snow arrives the taste is so much sweeter and (whispers) especially when the E/SE don't quite get they hoped for!!

PS: See sat pic below for proof that even from the sea it CAN happen!

Edited January 10, 2013 by snowdrifter

[snowdrifter]

Snow on Monday evening anyone? Looks fairly epic for most of the NW I'd say. No chicken-counting please, Far too much hatching to do.

...shows rain on the coast from an IMBY pov, but hey, it should be getting cold for snow anywhere by then if this ppn comes off!

Edited January 10, 2013 by snowdrifter

[iand61]

Just read through recent posts in this thread. Having gone through 10 winters on netweather as a NW England member (on the coast to boot!) I think the best policy is to accept that our location has less of a chance of snow in most set-ups, being sheltered by the Penines to the East, the sea to the west and the south being a non-cold direction! Having said all that WHEN snow arrives the taste is so much sweeter and (whispers) especially when the E/SE don't quite get they hoped for!!

PS: See sat pic below for proof that even from the sea it CAN happen!

Your right with the above but it doesn't stop the feeling of frustration when everywhere else gets hammered and our region stays dry.

What I've never understood though is if we are not favoured for snow from any direction then where did the mammoth falls of the past originate. Possibly stalling frontal attacks played a role and these are as rare as hens teeth these days but I have memories of falls of 1 - 2 feet and drifts 15 feet and more high but looking at current Synoptics and those of recent winters it's difficult to see how this would occur.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Snow on Monday evening anyone? Looks fairly epic for most of the NW I'd say. No chicken-counting please, Far too much hatching to do.

...shows rain on the coast from an IMBY pov, but hey, it should be getting cold for snow anywhere by then if this ppn comes off!

Hope its still there on 18Z, saturday looks like coming to nothing

[damianslaw]

Hooray we saw our first bout of sunshine of 2013 today - a few hours of blue sky late this morning- a real tonic. However, the cloud and mist covered the sky by mid afternoon lead into another early dusk with mist and patchy fog. Another cold day max of just 2 degrees. Now foggy and cold... a true winter evening.

Looking ahead, the NW is unlikely to see any snow this weekend, doubt any snow showers on Sunday will make it across the Pennines. However, the chances of snow increase markedly by Monday - all will depend on the track of the shortwave, uppers will certainly be conducive to snow as the front moves in from the North, and depending on the track of the shortwave many places could hold onto a lengthy period of snow, but it could also turn to a sleety messy mixture if we pull in milder uppers from the NW. I would say anywhere with height should see a decent snowfall, places further inland also have greater chance of the snow staying as snow.

Regarding best snow synoptics for the NW, potent cold NW airstreams normally deliver the goods - example Jan 1984. Stalling frontal attacks from the west crashing into cold continental air usually deliver the heaviest falls - early Feb 96 great example. Low pressure if it tracks across the midlands can deliver copious amounts as well - but such systems are rare beasts - don't have an example of such synoptics but sure there have been some.

When the polar vortex becomes fragmented as settles over the country then the NW is in as favourable position as anywhere, as low pressures, troughs galore spin off the vortex from the NE - the current ECM synoptics show such a scenario - a snow lovers dream!

[feb1991blizzard]

Hope its still there on 18Z, saturday looks like coming to nothing

It is still there on the 18z withe better to follow.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes the slider. feb 1996 anyone ???

[martinj2]

weird - fog AND rain here Temp +2

[dodge]

mmm...I'd bank and stick with what the charts are now showing for next week. Don't want to risk it and gamble for anything better. People are suggesting widespread snow fall overnight Monday into Tues. Could make the commute to work perilous as it only takes a few cm's to cause traffic chaos in this country. BBC/Met office forecasts this weekend (especially countryfile) will be eagerly anticipated.

[feb1991blizzard]

BOOM !!!!!!

mmm...I'd bank and stick with what the charts are now showing for next week. Don't want to risk it and gamble for anything better. People are suggesting widespread snow fall overnight Monday into Tues. Could make the commute to work perilous as it only takes a few cm's to cause traffic chaos in this country. BBC/Met office forecasts this weekend (especially countryfile) will be eagerly anticipated.

BRING IT ON!!!! COME ON. NETWEATHER IS ALIVE AGAIN!!!!!

[snowdrifter]

BOOM !!!!!!

BRING IT ON!!!! COME ON. NETWEATHER IS ALIVE AGAIN!!!!!

Was about to post that one! Feb '96 anyone?

[feb1991blizzard]

Was about to post that one! Feb '96 anyone?

To be honest i was suprised no one beat me to it - i saw it coming a mile off but didnt want to jjnx it by posting it until i was sure!!

[snowdrifter]

Harsh Climate just posted this on the Model Forum:

"Band of snow/less cold fails to make it past the pennines due to the cold air winning!"

Except this time it would be FROM THE WEST!!!!

Other quotes:

"Lots of snow in these charts, especially for the west. Some places could cop over a foot if these were to come off!" (Radianting Dendrite)

"Loving this run for later next week - West is Best!" (Bristol Boy)

Bancking ppn charts now

[martinj2]

Harsh Climate just posted this on the Model Forum:

"Band of snow/less cold fails to make it past the pennines due to the cold air winning!"

Except this time it would be FROM THE WEST!!!!

Other quotes:

"Lots of snow in these charts, especially for the west. Some places could cop over a foot if these were to come off!" (Radianting Dendrite)

"Loving this run for later next week - West is Best!" (Bristol Boy)

Bancking ppn charts now

SWeet!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Harsh Climate just posted this on the Model Forum:

"Band of snow/less cold fails to make it past the pennines due to the cold air winning!"

Except this time it would be FROM THE WEST!!!!

Other quotes:

"Lots of snow in these charts, especially for the west. Some places could cop over a foot if these were to come off!" (Radianting Dendrite)

"Loving this run for later next week - West is Best!" (Bristol Boy)

Bancking ppn charts now

Just for fun though at the moment, im not getting to far ahead of myself, i love it when stonking runs come out and the forum goes int o meltdown but still a lot of hurdles to cross, the first one though (consistent x model agreement on at least a week of below average - well below average temps with snow possibilities for the uk will hopefully be finalised by this time tommorow.

[snowdrifter]

...and if it were to come off (just a bit of fun this far out of course) then acc to the ppn charts we'd get 24hrs of snow, again, not unlike the stalling front of Feb '96 - Blackpool was cut off.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=2&carte=1

Just for fun though at the moment, im not getting to far ahead of myself, i love it when stonking runs come out and the forum goes int o meltdown but still a lot of hurdles to cross, the first one though (consistent x model agreement on at least a week of below average - well below average temps with snow possibilities for the uk will hopefully be finalised by this time tommorow.

Yeah I know - you're right of course - I'll try and reign things in myself! V rare we get even some kind of suggestion of something decent though!

[Snow free zone]

Crikey, was only joking when i mentioned Feb 96 this afternoon ...... you never know ..