Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Isolated Frost]

Ahhhh my pretty... soon you will be back with me. Soon.

[lorenzo]

I think the ECM flip from Easterly really punched everyone in the stomach, certainly peed me off anyway, 41/51 ensembles on the 'winning' model ! Maybe wouldn't have been so bad if this hadn't been the 2nd one in succession to disappear.

Am sure it will be back and the 80% of correct members can have their revenge on the 20%..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think the ECM flip from Easterly really punched everyone in the stomach, certainly peed me off anyway, 41/51 ensembles on the 'winning' model ! Maybe wouldn't have been so bad if this hadn't been the 2nd one in succession to disappear.

Am sure it will be back and the 80% of correct members can have their revenge on the 20%..

Along with the 80+% confidence of deep cold for December......its freezing cold tonight.....but maybe that's it. The little one looks like winning

BFTP

[phil nw.]

Yes i too am disappointed with the turn in the outputs since last week.Last couple of days have been nice and crisp,frosty and feeling seasonal and as SM said should have been the taster for our easterly that was modelled last week.Shame that the Atlantic is on standby instead.

However let`s not lose sight of a weaker and disorganised PV and a southerly tracking jet.

There`s lot`s of cold around and it wont take much amplification of the pattern to bring it this way.

[ZONE 51]

It is frustrating, not sure how the forecasters keep up with the model output changes! It's interesting when we are at these situations that no certainty in the outcome is yet set, who knows, there could be a snow event for some as the systems move in this week.

Below is an image i quickly put together showing the advancing mild air as an oven and an ice block on the cold blocking high to the east.

The ice block v the oven:

Edited December 12, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[TEITS]

I think the ECM flip from Easterly really punched everyone in the stomach, certainly peed me off anyway, 4

Strangely it didn't to me. Whilst I was quietly getting excited I knew from experience that when it comes to the elusive E,ly this has to be modelled in the +72 timeframe or even +48.

I feel what really annoyed members is how the change in the output was probably one of the most extreme I have ever seen. I remember jokingly saying that the E,lys might even reach the E coast of the US such was the extent of the E,ly flow across the Atlantic.

Lets hope for a similiar change in some of the GFS +300 projections because at the moment these charts look horrid!

[MP-R]

Two words sum up the models this morning 'oh dear'! Though I'm still looking at the 20th/21st as a possible turning point to something more wintry again.

[Summer Sun]

A straw to clutch but look at the 21st and the wind direction

[carinthian]

Hi,

What a massive let down for you lot starved of cold and lovers of snow over in Blighty. The projected Easterly failed to deliver again. Even over here the cold and snow was not as severe as suggested a week ago and there is now talk of a warm Christmas ! Lets all hope, talk of a wet and warm Christmas is blown to pieces by an unexpected cold surge from the East. From my experience, it usually happens that way , rather from looking at model predictions.

C

[Absolute Zero]

There is no middle ground on this forum, its either party time or a funeral. We are all living in the past and trying to revisit our youth with memories of 47, 63, 79 and 81 and it's causing distress. In a few days time there will be another party and the cycle will continue. How often do very cold runs actually verify? A dice would be at least as good i think.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Proper deflated that it is going to turn milder shortly after waking up this morning to a winter wonderland. I just long for the next cold spell already gggggrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr LOL

[MR EXTREMES]

this is not a insult to gp but i think the winter forecast thats been done might well need to be redone.

not saying jan wont have something intresting but i do think if a more el nino pattern had set in then things might have been different.

[snowmaddave]

Can the people in charge of our country change weather patterns!!!

Think about it, the last thing they want is a country that is crippled in debt and is about to be hit from a major cold spell, at Christmas when the most money is been spent, roads blocked, people staying in, shops shut, makes sense to me that if they knew something very cold was on route, they could influence the climate around us, I know it sounds aload of dog biscuits but hey you never know, loads of vids on YouTube about this particular subject, haarp technology I think its called. Also when you see some of them charts that were been produced, it does make you wonder how things can change that quick!!!

sorry guys thats my conspiracy theory moan out the way!!!

[snow freak]

I for one, will stop kidding myself that this winter will end up to be anything other than predominantly mild as per usual for UK winters. Yes, we will obviously have a few days of cold weather, but as for any substantial cold and snow, then I think we need to be realistic and not raise our hopes. We are unfortunate to live on an island stuck out in the Atlantic, with a gulf stream which ensures we don't normally get any substantial cold periods and if we do, they are shortlived affairs before the atlantic wins out again. I feel very depressed the way this winter is going and the thought of having to wait another 10 years before we get decent cold and snow events is far too long.

[coram]

Not only have the models been hopeless, but so have the forecasters. The Met Office belatedly bought into the cold spell just before it disappeared on the models and the first part of GP's forecast (ie December) looks like it's going to be badly wrong. I am more convinced than ever that the models and the forecasters cannot be relied upon for anything beyond the next four or five days.

[snow freak]

The models were consistently showing substantial cold the past few weeks and although we have had a few days of cold, the prolonged severe weather has been hijacked by the usual atlantic mild weather. The chances of the UK being hit by a prolonged cold spell is very rare and 9/10 the mild weather will win. I also wonder why people even bother looking at the models if they end up being so inaccurate to be honest. As people keep saying the weather cannot be accurately forecast more than a few days beforehand, then what is the point of having these multi million pound computer giving you predictions which may (or may not) come true?

[MP-R]

I just want a cold spell from the north - they're much more exciting and actually produce decent snow, colder temperatures and more sunshine e.g. Jan 2010 and the start of the second spell in Dec 2010.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

From a IMBY perspective the most decent cold spells of recent winters have come before xmas, so if this theme continues for this winter then things don't bode well if this current cold spell is it LOL

[cerneman]

All our winters in this country since end of last ice age have been variations on same theme, Mild/chilly with spells of colder weather, The memorable winters are when we have cold spell that lasts longer and colder than normal, But even the great winters of past always sandwiched between mild, All we know for 2012/13 winter is we have had our first cold spell very early into winter, Not that long or really deep cold, but first cold spell never or less, We now enter mild and await next cold spell be it short or long, I am rather pleased that weather forecasting can still not confidently forecast beyond few days, Think how boring if every month given forecast that 100% correct, The same models and signels that caused so much excitment short while ago are now throwing people into depression,Things will change and with luck the next cold spell will be better,

[syed2878]

i thot the pv suppose move out to siberia but reading today's posts it's going back home. Oh 1other thing is that when models shows mild it will most likely verrryfigh, accept summer of course.

[Tony Beets]

My theory is this!!!

It's all down to the government, they have borrowed some freakishly weird weather tweaking machine from china or North Korea so that we don't get our rightful snowmageddon event in the next couple of weeks. That ECM run was genuine, it was going to happen and then the machine was switched on and buggered all of our plans up!!

Don't despair tho!! I have hired a group of people who are going to hunt down this weapon of mass cold and snowy destruction. U might have herd of them before..... They are known as the A TEAM!!

So don't despair, at this very moment they are hot on the chase of the evil wet weather mongers and before too long we will have our

SNOWMAGEDDON!!!!!!!!!

[snow freak]

We can't win in this country. In winter it is predominantly mild and in summer it is predominantly cool. We should be called the country of perpetual Autumn.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Only approx 30 mins until the next depressing set of model runs come out

[Stationary Front]

12z doing everything it can to prevent a cold set up for most of the Uk. Lol 13c on Xmas eve!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

You can tell that there is no more cold weather on the horizon when they are arguing in the model thread about whether something is zonal or not , all very exciting stuff!!!!!