Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

[nick sussex]

Anyone any clearer on the eventual outcome????

No!!!

Pick a solution out of a hat, that has as much chance of being right.

The ECM blows that low up because a piece of the PV gets ejected sw, and then delivers an Arctic high! OMG we're back to that again.

[peterf]

dont worry be happy!

[snow1975]

The easterly in the north later this week has a Feb 2001 look about it. On that occasion the snow didn't appear in the BBC weather bulletins until the last minute. North Scotland and the Northern Isles were hit badly, even relatively high ground in the central Belt got several inches of snow...

[bluearmy]

the ecm strat zonal wind charts days 8 to 10 should be a laugh in the morning. now that day 8 chart would be a 'game changer' though unlikley ?????

[swfc]

Where is the Arctic High going?

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?17-0

greeland haha

[LomondSnowstorm]

Damp squib since news 24 said turning milder, wet and windy from midweek onwards, no mention of any cold even in the far northeast, so it's not looking good for snow anywhere now, have to say though that the 850's look rather cold on ecm 12z compared to what the weather man just said, so the models must be wrong?

I would never take a BBC tv forecast at face value over the actual model output. They have a tendency to lag behind the latest model output and I doubt the latest 12Z update from the Chief forecaster is out yet in any event.

[chris55]

The easterly in the north later this week has a Feb 2001 look about it. On that occasion the snow didn't appear in the BBC weather bulletins until the last minute. North Scotland and the Northern Isles were hit badly, even relatively high ground in the central Belt got several inches of snow...

Thats the Infamous "Kettley high" is it not?

Edited December 17, 2012 by chris55

[PubliusEnigma]

ECM says dull, grey and mild for Christmas, temps maybe 9oc or so with a breeze coming in from the SW.

A snow free christmas countrywide possibly ?

[chris55]

Oh these models do tease us!!

[Nick F]

GFS 12z ensembles

A few of those members are trending to -10 now

Unfortunately operational at the colder end of the ens for Aberdeen early next week and most ens going for milder uppers for London - 12z ECM op backing up this trend aswell. -6C T850s reaching NE Scotland on Xmas Eve, before it gets pushed back by the might of the Atlantic.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Nick F

[IDO]

The Arctic High splits the vortex again:

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?17-0

Promising:

Edited December 17, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[Katiewombat]

192hrs ECM is Blooming amazing, where did that little surprise come from

What's that up north bursting through the PV!

Please enlighten us dumbo's who cant read the models and are stupid enough to be hooked on this thread. Lol

[chris55]

ECM says dull, grey and mild for Christmas, temps maybe 9oc or so with a breeze coming in from the SW.

A snow free christmas countrywide possibly ?

If that chart was to verify i'd say probably a little cooler, but snow free, pretty much definitely (unless you live on really high ground).

Edited December 17, 2012 by chris55

[snow1975]

Thats the Infamous "Kettley high" is it not?

I think so? I week earlier the charts were epic showing a 1987 repeat.

[swfc]

our local bbc news just showed 4-c at the end of the week with sleet or snow for high ground ??.Anyway the atlantic continues to gather strength and kick on.Are there to be any major changes short term?.It needs to be showing its hand asap

[Matty M]

So basically the ECM leaves us more clueless than ever, not only is the 72-144hr region very uncertain but the 144hr + region too.

Model Uncertainty at new levels

[Katiewombat]

I would never take a BBC tv forecast at face value over the actual model output. They have a tendency to lag behind the latest model output and I doubt the latest 12Z update from the Chief forecaster is out yet in any event.

Even on the website the bbc are several hours behind the met. Last winter anyway. Not looked this year.

[Nick F]

Bit of cold zonality in ECM FI, so not a disaster of a run by any means ... but do we believe FI?

Edited December 17, 2012 by Nick F

[chris55]

our local bbc news just showed 4-c at the end of the week with sleet or snow for high ground ??.Anyway the atlantic continues to gather strength and kick on.Are there to be any major changes short term?.It needs to be showing its hand asap

Location in sig would help.

[cooling climate]

Heights making inroads into the Arctic in the extended range of the ECM run and this will be my

straw to clutch hoping to see a potent cold spell set up as we go towards the end of December

and into the new year.

[swfc]

Location in sig would help.

Sheffield!!!

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

our local bbc news just showed 4-c at the end of the week with sleet or snow for high ground ??.Anyway the atlantic continues to gather strength and kick on.Are there to be any major changes short term?.It needs to be showing its hand asap

yeah same here Paul Hudson had temps of 6c and 7c then 4c for sat with sleet

[Frosty.]

Unfortunately operational at the colder end of the ens for Aberdeen early next week and most ens going for milder uppers for London - 12z ECM op backing up this trend aswell. -6C T850s reaching NE Scotland on Xmas Eve, before it gets pushed back by the might of the Atlantic.

So you agree it's looking like a damp squib everywhere then nick? should I cancel my skiing trip to ne scotland this weekend

[MR EXTREMES]

Damp squib since news 24 said turning milder, wet and windy from midweek onwards, no mention of any cold even in the far northeast, so it's not looking good for snow anywhere now, have to say though that the 850's look rather cold on ecm 12z compared to what the weather man just said, so the models must be wrong?

I'm getting the feeling toys out of the pram.

To be perfectly honest the models don't have a clue so damp squid or snowy suprise are being shown by all of the main models.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The one constant theme I see at present in FI is the continued tendency to see a trough move over Scandi post Xmas towards the New Year. That sort of development is something I've had my eye on for some considerable time. How much that would affect UK re cold is unknown as so many variables, but I'm comfortable that we are heading in that direction.

BFTP