The Midlands Regional Winter Discussion

[MKN]

As long as the gfs has cooked the warm sector slightly we should be ok surely the BBC would have sleety grahics if they thought gfs was right.

[Bishop Brennan]

NAE does look more promising for the East Midlands. The Peak District could get a good dumping between 6pm Sun and 6pm Mon. Add to that the snowcover will probably not melt anywhere next week and the chance of further falls as disturbances run through the cold air, by next weekend there could be some seriously deep snow up there.

Walking in the Peak District anytime after tomorrow could be very interesting indeed.

I think you'll be in a prime position, Supacell. You're further North and East than most of us on here, plus you've got elevation on your side as well

Bish

[chrisb1357]

Can anyone tell me how its looking for Derby Area

[Adzyy]

I'm not getting my hopes up until i see it falling from the sky. Fed up of let downs.

EDIT: However, every time I look at MetO, the forecast increases for Rugby. Now showing light snow midnight > heavy snow > light > light > heavy > sleet > light.

Gonna go right down to the wire I think.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Adzyy

[kev238]

Agree supacell should be fine. At the moment I am expecting Nottingham to be in a good position, just, so expect belper with a bit more altitude to be fine.

Of course the influx of milder uppers and dew points could head further north east and scupper it for everyone.

The guidance from high res nae will be interesting as will the radar, which will be the best way of deciding if it will snow or not!

[Supacell]

Can anyone tell me how its looking for Derby Area

As Bish says above, the Derby area and all the NE Midlands looking okay at this point. DP's are between 0c and -1c throughout and that would indicate an all snow event. Its on a knife-edge though with a 1c rise in DP's enough to spoil the fun for places with little elevation. Although in Pinxton I think you would be okay

[picog]

Us west midlanders look like snow then rain through monday then maybe snow monday night needs to be all snow.

I think we might be far too west for the snow. It's going to be gut wrenching if we miss out, We'll have to hope for a late westwards adjustment and no warm sector.

[kev238]

The west will get some snow from first band. But might not last too long in the morning

[andy_leics22]

I'm keeping quiet on the snow prospects, too many times i've seen great snow prospects at t48 that go wrong! I'll only get excited about this event when the precip arrives

[The Wolf]

I will be totally gutted if we get rain on Monday whilst many other areas get pounded by

snow. I just pray that my location isnt too far West.

Bloody Mild sector.

[beefy201]

left trouser legy left trouser legy pants time :-) (Green Mile)

[kev f]

just watched the BBC weather again and it's showing two occluded fronts.

i was under the (maybe false)impression that there is no temp change from ahead of the front to behind an occluded front as essentially the warm sector has been mixed out?

am i correct in saying that??

[Shezale coventry]

After monday event looks dry for our region next week when will be our best chance of snow after monday?

[syed2878]

evening peeps. So what r the chances for brum sunday and monday? Thx. I c the met have yellow snow warning from 1500h sunday and for monday.

[Gord]

Tonight it's the turn of the East Midlanders to relax and look forward to lots of snow while over here in the West Midlands, we're still shuffling in our seats uneasily about it. Wonder who'll be doing the squeaky bum dance tomorrow!

In Dudley, we have some elevation on our side, I would have thought that would help our cause. We're one of the highest areas in the built up area of the West Midlands.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Gord

[chrisb1357]

Now showing more rain for me on Monday from the NW 7 Day Forecast tool

[Chess01]

Just done a postcode search on the met office and we have light snow from 6pm sunday throught till 12am monday then heavy snow then at 6 light snow 9 is cload 12 is sleet 3 is sleet then 6pm is snow . However if i search stoke are which is 5 miles away from me and lower elavation they also have snow forecast for wendsday but my location hasnt

[The Wolf]

^{To me it looks like Mondays event is going tits up. Big downgrade looking at some}

^{of the charts tonight. Very disappointed.}

[Bishop Brennan]

The 18z NAE is looking very promising for Sunday night & the early hours of Monday morning..............

Bish

[Gord]

I think I'd rather know it was slipping away from us now rather than the event itself going wrong when we weren't expecting it to. Unlike the 9th Feb last year when a big snow event seemed certain for us...only for it to rain for most of it. This time, we are more than aware of the risk for rain so won't be as gut wrenching. To be fair, the BBC have never been too keen on the idea of a pure snow event for us. If things continue this way tomorrow, the warning area by the met office may be tweaked with areas of the West Midlands slipping out of it. They tend to re-jig them just before the event to focus on particular areas more anyway. Makes sense because that's the nature of events like these...so I wouldn't be cross at the Met Office at all if it happened.

Still tomorrow's model runs and forecasts to get through. I hope we don't lose this one...that'll be two snow warnings lost in the space of 4 days!

Deep down, I have this feeling that we're going to be ok with this one though...despite all the forecasts in front of us.

Edit: and the NAE chart that Bish just posted goes against most of what I just said anyway!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Gord

[MKN]

The nmm shows snow anywhere east of brum roughly albeit I've only seen one image posted elsewer. Id guess itl end up somewer between that suggestion and that of the nae.

[cyclonic happiness]

well, there's no point in getting upset, we're used to this kind of crap every winter aren't we? just make sure you have plenty of beer to hand whilst radar watching tomorrow night

[The Wolf]

My feeling is that it will snow tomorrow night but we washed away by rain on

Monday in West Midlands. Areas East of Bham look ok at the moment but it will

be gut wrenching for us in the West. I also wouldnt be surprised to see the charts look

even worse for us tomorrow as we get nearer the event which would be just bloomin

typical! I pray that I am wrong but I've not got a good feeling about Monday whatsoever.

The latest BBC forecast looked crap for us aswell.

[Bishop Brennan]

well, there's no point in getting upset, we're used to this kind of crap every winter aren't we? just make sure you have plenty of beer to hand whilst radar watching tomorrow night

Get ready for a lot of very sloshed-sounding posts in that case!

Bish

[Bishop Brennan]

My feeling is that it will snow tomorrow night but we washed away by rain on Monday in West Midlands.

That may well be how it pans out for us in the west of the region, although don't forget just because it starts out as rain on Monday doesn't mean that it can't turn to snow soon afterwards

Also, the latest 18Z charts look like prolonging the cold spell through to next weekend and maybe even beyond, so potentially plenty more opportunities in the days ahead

Bish