Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond

[Neiller22]

Well I don't get it! What computer do they use!! It's light years away from what people are saying here. Also look at met office website regional forecast for Northern Ireland as it is saying heavy rain snd sleet with snow on high ground. Yet have warning for us! All completely confusing. So a long way to go as expert opinion from professionals ain't looking good for here going by that

[Baltic Regions]

Its another case of sit back and see what happens. Im not going to get so caught up in this that im a nervous wreck come next week. I could be shovelling snow or chilling in the house. Lets just see what we get.

Im pretty hopeful though, charts looking great!

[Neiller22]

I know it is. I just have this gut feeling it ain't going to work out for us. In theses marginal cases we normally end up on the wrong side I'm afraid. I know the charts look gret but the experts state otherwise.

[minus86BriJ]

Met eireann rarely get their longer range forcasts of cold scenarios right. If I was to believe everything they said over the last week we'd of seen piles of the white stuff already so their milder outlook for the weekend should be treated disrespectfully. That said I never expect snow on this boulder in the Atlantic until there's a snowball hurtling towards my girlfriends face.

Edited January 16, 2013 by minus86BriJ

[Neiller22]

It's not just met eirann though. Bbc reginal website for Northern Ireland indicates rain and sleet. That was updated at 4am so they agree with met eirann

[BornFromTheVoid]

0Z GFS looking great for Ireland with many possible snow events

Friday night and into Saturday, great snow potential for the north

The early early hours of Monday offering a rain/sleet to snow event for the whole country

Another for the whole country Monday night into Tuesday

Slight potential again into Wednesday.

Hopefully these little events will remain consistent, but it wouldn't take much for them to disappear. Still, there's certainly hope!

[mountain shadow]

Just caught Carol Kirkwoods forecast on the Beeb showing rain only for NI with all the snow pushing across the Irish sea which is opposite to what the GFS shows.

So even with only 48 hours until the event were still none the wiser.

But that Kirkwood forecast has certainly dampened my spirits.

[Neiller22]

As I said. Don't think it will happen here. Been saying this for days and I didn't buy into it. Hope I'm wrong

[BIG LAD]

yup fridays snow symbols on bbc teletext have been replaced by rain. not looking good im afraid and im deffo not expecting anything.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Expect rain to turn more and more to Snow on Friday - expect further upgrades too

[Neiller22]

I fully expect warning to be lifted from us I'm afraid .

[mountain shadow]

The automated and Kirkwood forecast appear to come from the 6z NAE which pushes the Atlantic in quickly.

This is opposite to the overnight GFS, ECM and UKMET run which bring a snow event to the North.

We will get an idea of The Met Office thoughts later as the Weather Warnings are updated.

Lets see what the GFS 6z brings

[Downburst]

Well I think the north should have the best chance, obviously so very marginal it's hard to say but rain/sleet the fav for sea level. If you can get the wind down in sheltered areas and with evaporative cooling and heavy showers it might build up on the grass, then freeze over night, early showers in the morning over night will settle snow on pavements/roads. To be honest guys do not expect it to happen with UK met and Irish Met not just using the ECM/GFS LOL! they have a better view.

[somofagun]

I dont know about this one. If you forget about the models for a minute and actually look at what is happening outside your window. I have a keen interest in the weather and the old sayings are not far wrong. It usually dries up a bit before a big snow event this is not happening at the minute. I feel the conditions are just not right for us this time. I think the best we can expect is a sleety mess with the maybe the sperrins ect seeing snow.

[Neiller22]

Gfs pushing everything east again on latest run so I'm afraid this is only going one way folks as expected. And that's rain for most

[Neiller22]

Latest gfs has whole of uk snowbound bar Ireland and sw!! What a turnaround. Gone are the snow maps. What has this country got to do to see snow this year!

[Kitara1]

I'm getting the feeling we are all going to be by-passed completely. Yet more rain. Depressing.

Hope I'm wrong!!

[Neiller22]

Well Iv been saying this for days that I didn't think it wouldn't happen here. I still stand by that. In fact I'm 98% sure we will see nothing. The other side of the irish see get truck loads of snow as usual. What a woeful winter here so far.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

And yet Somofagun I have seen plenty of rain events change to snow - December 2009 sticks in my memeory as being one such event. Guys, we have plenty of time of subtle upgrades and of course downgrades before Friday - THATS how fluid the situation is - if it snows it snows - if not meh at least we where in the running.

We will hit lucky yet (I didn't say what year though)

[ronan]

That's it Pom! Keep the faith! I Gaurentee that by the 12z's it will have changed again! The exact same happened yesterday morning!!

[mountain shadow]

Massive turn around though Pomeroy in six hours. On current output it is a rain only event for Ireland.

Unless we see a westward correction on the 12s, its all over. Indeed i would say low lying areas have very little chance of snow at all

I fully expect NI to be removed from weather warnings this afternoon.

Well Pi**ed off

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

MS booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Meh if it snows it snows - its horrible stuff anyway and I don't care

[Neiller22]

Funny how some people when they say its a rain only event and all over and expect warning to be removed for Northern Ireland it's posted! I stated this an hr ago bout weather warning and it was not shown! Not getting at you mountain shadow because I totally agree with you. We will get nout. Been saying his for days. Once again across the Irish Sea get it all.

[mountain shadow]

The only reason im on here is for snow.

And their is nothing worse than having snow forecast only for it to be given to someone else.

[Neiller22]

Hats off to met eirann. There computer must be ok because they never bought into this snow outlook. I'm just going to continue to post until one is shown before I actually contact net weather myself to ask why some of my posts are not shown. In case it's a glitch which I know it's not. I know who is playing games