January 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)

[Optimus Prime]

GFS 18z has the mean temperature 22nd - 31st at 2.9c. CET is 3.5c to the 21st. Manley however is significantly lower at 3.1c to the 21st.

Final figure would be 3.3c before possible adjustments. Comparable to January 2001 (3.2c) 1991 (3.3c) and 1986 (3.5c) in recent years. All of those years aside from 2001 had very cold February's (but February 2001 was a very wintry month for Scotland)

Oh and forgot January 2009 came in at 3.0c. That probably won't be beaten. What followed was a generally snowy February.

[Optimus Prime]

If January averages 3.3c the winter will have averaged 4.0c so far which is 0.7c below 71-000 normal.

Last 5 years;

D/J 2012 5.7c (+1.0c)

D/J 2011 1.5c (-3.2c)

D/J 2010 2.3c (-2.4c)

D/J 2009 3.2c (-1.5c)

D/J 2008 5.8c (+1.1c)

Edited January 22, 2013 by Optimus Prime

[BornFromTheVoid]

3.3C to the 22nd

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was -0.6C. Today's minimum is -1.7C while maxima are are generally above 0C, so a drop to 3.1C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

2.9C to the 24th (-2.7)

2.6C to the 25th (-3.0)

2.6C to the 26th (0.6)

2.6C to the 27th (4.6)

2.7C to the 28th (3.8]

2.8C to the 29th (6.3)

3.0C to the 30th (9.4)

Sub 3C is going to be close!

[Isolated Frost]

Remember the days of waiting for the mystical sub 3c month?

[Isolated Frost]

Just had a check at the the list of entries (1 Jan- not a fan of entries afterwards..)

13/89 went for a sub 3c month, just 14.6%

Impressive month. I'd say Rybris Ponce at 3.0c is the best looking bet atm

edit- checked December, 35/98 went for sub-3c, 35.7%

It leads to you believe that the general consensus will be colder predictions if the start of the month is colder (first 10 days, viewed by the nwp)

Edited January 23, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[The PIT]

Sunny old Sheffield down to 2.9C a few more days to drop yet then a slow rise should be on the cards.

[damianslaw]

Remember the days of waiting for the mystical sub 3c month?

Yes since 1987, I think we have only managed 2 sub 3c January's these being 1997 and 2010. We came very close in 2001 I think and 2009, anyone have the stats?

I remember back in the winters of 06/07 and 07/08 many were saying the chances of seeing a sub 3 degree month again were becoming very slim, Jan 2010 changed things markedly..

[Weather-history]

10th-23rd January CET: 0.3C

I think that is the 5th consecutive winter that has produced at least a fortnight of close to freezing or below CET period.

[Summer Sun]

Netweather have the CET at 3.37 which is 0.83°C below the 4.2C average (71 to 00 average)

I would expect the final CET to come in at around average once things turn milder during the final 5 days of January

Edited January 24, 2013 by Gavin.

[Optimus Prime]

Netweather have the CET at 3.37 which is 0.83°C below the 4.2C average (71 to 00 average)

I would expect the final CET to come in at around average once things turn milder during the final 5 days of January

*Sigh* The net weather CET is always higher than the official recorded CET so you need to adjust coordinately. It's typically 0.3c higher so you either add 0.3c onto the 71-000 average or you minus 0.3c of the actual recorded temperature for the anomaly. Is it stands it's around 1.13c below normal.

[DR Hosking]

3.0c to the 24th

[reef]

3.0c to the 24th

Strange how the mean max and mean min figures on the hadley site have updated to today but the mean max is stuck on the 22nd.

Its a shame how the cloud levels were so high during this cold spell as we could have had some extremely low minima. Still, after the mild first 8 days getting down to 3C is pretty impressive.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley CET is 2.9C up to 25th

[Isolated Frost]

55-45 in favour of a plus 3c not sub 3c month? About 3.3c before corrections seems likely- about 3c/3.1c after them.

[The PIT]

Down to 2.6C in Sunny Sheffield onwards and upwards from now on.

[J10]

Considering such a snowy month in many places, this is looking quite a mild month in some regards.

[Milhouse]

Considering such a snowy month in many places, this is looking quite a mild month in some regards.

Due to the very mild first week and the cloudy nights.

[Harve]

Due to the very mild first week and the cloudy nights.

The next week isn't exactly looking chilly though. I'm happy with 3.9c, even though it's likely to come in a few notches lower than that.

[damianslaw]

Mmmm going to be very difficult achieving a sub 3 degree finish. There is going to be quite a warm up in the next 2-3 days peaking on Tuesday before we a return to more normal values by the 31st.

I think a finish between 3 and 3.2 degrees is where we will end up, very similiar to Jan 2001 and 2009 I think?

As someone said the very mild first 10 days and the lack of clear skies during the past 2 weeks is the key reason why. Had we seen clearer skies during the cold period, then a finish in the 2's would have been guaranteed.

I still think February has a good chance of being the coldest month of the winter, even if the start is looking rather average.

The one notable aspect of this January is how unlike 1996, 1997, 2009 and 2010 we have managed to see the coldest period coincide with the middle- to second third of the month as opposed to the first 10 days as we saw in 1997, 2009 and 2010, and the last 10 days as we saw in 1996. January 2001 was very similiar with the mid month period delivering the coldest period of the month, however, the length of the cold wasn't quite as long in 2001, but the start was not as mild as this month. February 2001 was quite a cold wintry month at times which in turn was followed by a wintry and cold at times March. Of the years mentioned only 1997 failed to deliver a cold wntry spell in February, and incidentally 1996 and 2010 deliver very cold weather for March.

[Aaron]

The figure is 2.0C for me.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Considering such a snowy month in many places, this is looking quite a mild month in some regards.

February 2009 saw a comparable cold and snowy spell in the first half to how the last fortnight has seen (12th to 26th January 2013) - widespread snowfalls although never with any exceptionally low temperatures, and that month still managed to finish up close to average in the end for the CET and still even ended up over 4.0*C. We have done a little better this January and should still finish below 4*C.

January 1984 was also a very snowy month in a number of places yet that still finished up with a CET close to average.

It is the very mild first week and lack of any particularly cold nights during the cold spell over the last two weeks that has meant that this month will not overall end up especially cold in terms of the CET. This month has had very much a Feb 2009 feel to it; a two week cold snowy spell, but without any exceptionally low temperatures, but mild at other times; the main difference has been that the cold spell has occurred over the middle to latter half as opposed to through the first half as in Feb 2009.

[Gustywind]

You could easily turn it around and say considering how mild the first third of the month was, we have done very well to be close to recording a comfortably below average month, especially considering how cloudy the nights were in the colder period and that the last week looks set to be above average. It wasn't long ago a CET of 3 or below was being deemed unlikely to be achieved again.

Very impressive daytime temps over the past 10 days have helped, my locale for example recorded 6 consecutive ice days.

[Summer Sun]

Slight rise today upto 3.0c now to the 26th

I expect further rises over the week now the milder air has arrived

Edited January 27, 2013 by Gavin.

[Optimus Prime]

Main difference here between Feb 2009 & Jan 2013 are the much lower daytime maxima being recorded this month. A midday temperature of -1.7c last Friday was much lower than anything experienced in Feb 2009.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Today's minimum is 2.2C while maxima were around 9C, so an increase tomorrow to 3.1C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

3.2C to the 28th (5.3)

3.4C to the 29th (9.5)

3.6C to the 30th (9.0)

3.7C to the 31st (6.0)

No chance of a sub 3.0C finish now unfortunately.