South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - December 29th 2012>

[chilly milly]

I think we were under the blue when he posted them last night! They have now updated to the 00z which put us under a lot of green

Oh I see. Thanks Lottie.

[Steve C]

Morning all

Happy New Year and all that!

Back to work now, for a rest.

There would have been a great sunrise here too, but I missed it.

[Kent Snow]

Slate grey start to the day. 5C and light breeze.

[Snowangel-MK]

There would have been a great sunrise here too, but I missed it.

I missed it too..... *yawns* Good Morning

[Coast]

I missed it too..... *yawns* Good Morning

What time do you call this then?

[Snowangel-MK]

What time do you call this then?

Coffee time ?

.......black decaf no sugar please

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Strat warming eh? Could be interesting if something comes out of it...

[Coast]

Could be interesting if something comes out of it...

[Ruthie]

Morning all. Not long up, as was up till gone 1am reading my new zombie book! Did wake up early and saw amazingly red sunrise! Have a good day all...

[scrat]

Anyone else having the most amazing sunrise? its beautiful!!!

Taken in North Watford:

Looks amazing. We had a beautiful sunrise in Biggin Hill too, just didn't have a chance to take a picture (I always think there has to be some benefit to getting up early and that sunrise was one of them). Only one day at work for me this week, so not so bad. Very dull here in Bromley, real nothingy type of weather, the sort of weather I hate! Hey ho....I'm sure there is something a bit more dramatic round the corner (ever hopeful)

[Coast]

I'm sure there is something a bit more dramatic round the corner (ever hopeful)

It's quite a big corner at the moment I'm afraid.

[80sWeather]

Back to work today....boo hoo!

Hard today as the factory is freezing cos of christmas shutdown, and im still in christmas holiday mode thus not interested in work one bit.

Missed the sunrise but could just make out the beginning as it was still dark.

[Summer of 76]

Looking through the model discussion thread is like being on a rollercoaster at the sea side, one person thinks everything is great another thinks the look bad, funny how people can view the charts in a different way. The comment from Ian Ferguson last night within the model thread was interesting

fergieweather, on 01 January 2013 - 16:22 , said:

Absolutely. This is a crucial posting and everyone new to model-watching needs to appreciate the inevitable level of flux we'll now see in MOS into the longer medium-range/trend period. It's a fascinating time developing and trust me - the more I hear about what could happen later January from UKMO colleagues, the more exciting it becomes. There's a real buzz in discussions about this one.... (and I'm not normally drawn by such things!!)

fergieweather, on 01 January 2013 - 16:33 , said:

It's the major SSW event that catches the collective eye.... we're now entering a fascinating phase of a real-world test of the combined published research on this phenomenon versus outcome. The model flip-flop in solutions as they play catch-up further down the line on some highly complex dynamics will become a characteristic (if frustrating for some!) scenario now and this point needs stressing on the forum.

as well as the statement on the met office web site within the 16 to 30 days outlook from 4am this morning.

"Then, later, there is an increasing risk of more marked changes of weather-type occurring, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and wintry weather increases relative to late December and early January."

Only time will tell and maybe i may be able to use my sledge come the end of the month

[Coast]

Only time will tell and maybe i may be able to use my sledge come the end of the month

Sounds to me like a lot of the usual 'hedging of bets', but in a more technical stylie!!

(I've still got my fingers crossed you will notice)

Edited January 2, 2013 by Coast

[Summer of 76]

You could be right Coast although the sledge could be used on the mud

[Azores Hi]

I keep telling myself I'm not going to get sucked in this time but I'm already glued to the models!

We have a long way to travel synoptically that's true but with a SSW all bets are off and it could be a lot worse, we could be looking at the current pattern WITHOUT a SSW on the horizon.

[Coast]

the sledge could be used on the mud

Around here it would be compulsory!

I keep telling myself I'm not going to get sucked in this time but I'm already glued to the models!

It gets us every time eh AH?

[Azores Hi]

It gets us every time eh AH?

I guess if it didn't then we wouldn't be here in the first place lol

But I think a lot of us got badly burnt by the promise in early December, that was a month ago now, even longer since the BEAST first appeared in FI only to be dragged away at the last minute. I reckon we still have a good week before we could start to see some tantalising output from the GFS et al.

It's been too long and people are understandably getting a little tired of hearing about the strat and the promise of something colder and I fear if Mr Vortex doesn't play nice we are going to see lots of toys thrown out of prams.

[Coast]

I reckon we still have a good week before we could start to see some tantalising output from the GFS et al.

I'm normally too dubious (scared?) to look beyond that anyway, but in that particular time-frame I can't see anything currently that points to something colder. I'm taking each week as it comes and with relatively dry conditions promised for the next 6/7 days I'll take that to start 2013 please.

My punt is still for early/mid February - no science, no knowledge, no skill - just a hunch!

[Steve C]

I hope to see snow too, but I'm really looking forward to daylight returning more.

I don't really like this period, just after Christmas tbh.

[Village]

Its all perfectly normal.

The models are always poor with the synthetic runs at times of maximum and minimum insolation. I have said it for years and complained to the Meto that they are spending too much time model watching and not enough time watching conditions at the Hpa 1000 level. Thats what counts at this time of minimum insolation.

Four years ago I argued with the Meto that they should stop their Long term forcasting because it was making them look ridiculous.

They did.

As for our conditions here in the southeast....its all typical for this time of year. Highs of 11C in a cloudy southwesterly blow is all too common. We also know that as we head towards February that its all very common to experience freezing conditions from the East as High Pressure can tend to build over scandiland.

If anyone dare suggest that the flip-flopping from a soutwesterly warm, wet and windy to a easterly dry and cold at this time of year is abnormal and linked to extreme weather changes due to man made climate change then they really havent got a clue.

Both types of weather can and do effect the UK in January and February .... its all perfectly normal and the big contrasts in temperature and weather types are simply typical due to a frigid continental air mass being nothing like a warm tropical maritime airmass. It simply means that the wind changed direction and has nothing to do with theories of man made climate change bringing extreme weather events. Its always happened.

Welcome to a typical winter in the southeast of the UK.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Village

[Guest archiesmummy]

Its all perfectly normal.

The models are always poor with the synthetic runs at times of maximum and minimum insolation. I have said it for years and complained to the Meto that they are spending too much time model watching and not enough time watching conditions at the Hpa 1000 level. Thats what counts at this time of minimum insolation.

Four years ago I argued with the Meto that they should stop their Long term forcasting because it was making them look ridiculous.

They did.

As for our conditions here in the southeast....its all typical for this time of year. Highs of 11C in a cloudy southwesterly blow is all too common. We also know that as we head towards February that its all very common to experience freezing conditions from the East as High Pressure can tend to build over scandiland.

If anyone dare suggest that the flip-flopping from a soutwesterly warm, wet and windy to a easterly dry and cold at this time of year is abnormal and linked to extreme weather changes due to man made climate change then they really havent got a clue.

Both types of weather can and do effect the UK in January and February .... its all perfectly normal and the big contrasts in temperature and weather types are simply typical due to a frigid continental air mass being nothing like a warm tropical maritime airmass. It simply means that the wind changed direction and has nothing to do with theories of man made climate change bringing extreme weather events. Its always happened.

Welcome to a typical winter in the southeast of the UK.

Well said....

And just for a change its raining! Lol

[hernebaylooby]

happy new year everyone! hope every one had a spifin time! and lets hope we see some white stuff this year! its overcast outside and just stopped spitting so no change there from the last 2 weeks!

[Coast]

happy new year everyone! hope every one had a spifin time! and lets hope we see some white stuff this year! its overcast outside and just stopped spitting so no change there from the last 2 weeks!

HNY hbl!!!!

A brief respite for a week or so gives us dryer, mild but drab conditions. You gotta take the rough with the smooth I guess?!

Edited January 2, 2013 by Coast

[Snowangel-MK]

Just dry would be good for now, it would certainly help the ground recover from the sodden mess it is and make the new years resolution of some long walks easier...at the moment here its that yucky fine drizzly rain that is so depressing !