South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - December 29th 2012>

[john pike]

gfs at 240

ecm at 240

take your pick

[Summer of 76]

gfs at 240

ecm at 240

take your pick

john a case of going 50 50 or phoning a friend

[john pike]

john a case of going 50 50 or phoning a friend

hi chris

i was gonna ask the audience

how anyone can say winters over etc totally baffles me

[Summer of 76]

I wouldn't ask in the audience in model thread

[gottolovethisweather]

gfs at 240ecm at 240take your pick

Both to me don't look particularly stunning but are a vast improvement on the current mildness. A slow progression onto something colder will occur in the model outputs over the coming days, it will however stay at >t+120 etc. Even at that range, it will still be in the realms of FI but I remain convinced that the cold will come and then and only then, we can think about snow prospects.I expect you Mr.JP will have many a RAMP chart to post by the weekend.

Patience most definitely needed but I try to keep my expectations at reasonable levels, unlike certain other members in the MOD thread. The SSW will occur and the focus on the downwelling will be the telling signal, come Mid January onwards. Keep an eye on the MetO long rangers and look for consistency in their use of the word SNOW would be my advice for now.

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2461575

No mention yet but as their confidence in the forecast increases, they will begin to mention the sought-after frozen liquid more regularly.

Not forgetting their 16-30 dayer shown below, is already picking up on the probability and has attracted the attention of the media. I would however pay more credence to the 6-15 day signal as this would be much more reliable.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/61907-meto-uk-further-outlook-16-day-to-30-forecast/page__st__1380#entry2461578

Edited January 2, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

Both to me don't look particularly stunning but are a vast improvement on the current mildness. A slow progression onto something colder will occur in the model outputs over the coming days, it will however stay at >t+120 etc. Even at that range, it will still be in the realms of FI but I remain convinced that the cold will come and then and only then, we can think about snow prospects.I expect you Mr.JP will have many a RAMP chart to post by the weekend.

Patience most definitely needed but I try to keep my expectations at reasonable levels, unlike certain other members in the MOD thread. The SSW will occur and the focus on the downwelling will be the telling signal, come Mid January onwards. Keep an eye on the MetO long rangers and look for consistency in their use of the word SNOW would be my advice for now.

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2461575

No mention yet but as their confidence in the forecast increases, they will begin to mention the sought-after frozen liquid more regularly.

me show ramp charts?

never

there are some very good ensembles about at present also gfs control run was very good

i agree re the 120 mark and the fax charts could get interesting by about monday

still agree re the cold spell i would hazard from the 12th or 15th will be the start of it

whos wants a bet the 18z throws out a mega cold run

re the 2 charts i posted at 240

they are so different that means to me they are probably both wrong

Edited January 2, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

I wouldn't ask in the audience in model thread

[gottolovethisweather]

This post sums up things in the Model Output thread at the moment and more appropriately the actual model output.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75412-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-12z-301212/page__st__640#entry2462122

As JP suggests, the charts are so different because there is a very high level of uncertainty at the current time. With model confusion, I think you get a higher chance of misinterpretation by us weather model watchers.

[john pike]

nao looks to being going negative around 12th january

this is why it helps to see this negative-not positive

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

solar power has been very quiet recently

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

so expect the jet to weaken soon

http://www.ehow.co.uk/info_8412297_solar-flare-effects-jet-stream.html

although the strat talk will no doubt have an effect on our weather

i feel there are a lot of other different factors as well

the jet being a main player in my eyes

Edited January 2, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

tomorrow

west north westerly light flow

maybe some drizzle around again

moreso around anglia-yarmouth way

around 10 degrees

tomorrow night

west-north westerly flow

looks dry and cloudy

temperatures around 5-6 degrees

friday

very light westerly flow

sunshine and cloudy

around 10 degrees

looks dry

possibly misty around the coasts towards the evening

friday night

very light south westerly flow

again looks dry

mist more likely on south-south east coasts

5-6 degrees again

saturday

west south westerly flow

better chance of sunny spells

around 12-13 degrees

looks dry

sunday

very light south westerly flow

again looks dry

mainly cloudy today

10-12 degrees

fog could be a more wider issue

monday

very light south westerly flow

starts dry but possible showery bits in the afternoon

possibly a little bit heavier anglia way

8-10 degrees

note high pressure still looks strong on the last fax chart

patience grasshopper

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=317&y=146&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

some very cold ensembles there

will go to wetter when in

ramp charts coming

[Snowangel-MK]

Just been watching natures weirdest events and loved the cloud formations they showed, totally incredible. And, I didn't know that ice was a factor in lightening. Learning all the time :-)

I've just caught up with this episode, here is the link if anyone missed it .....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01pqmxw/Natures_Weirdest_Events_Series_2_Episode_2/

I particularly enjoyed the bit about the lenticularis and mammatus clouds

[john pike]

[Snowangel-MK]

BOOOOM.. Clocks Ticking.

ANALYSIS STRATOSPHERE

STRATWARMING 2013: chronological monitoring of Sudden Stratospheric WARMING and possible frost in TROPOSPHERE in January 2013

For anyone else like me who is trying to understand all this SSW business there is a nice bit of bedtime reading for you here...

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable

I believe there is now solid evidence that a polar vortex collapse is probable in at least a few stratospheric levels in the next few weeks (for those wanting my definition of a collapse, see the last paragraph or two).

http://theweathercen...blogspot.co.uk/

[john pike]

note the VERY cold ensemble runs

5 runs below -10

warmish and dry to the 8th

fi is the 11th although i feel more confident on the colder spell coming soon

more runs are needed but i like these

[john pike]

might as well show you another cold run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=9&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=9&mode=0&carte=0

2 ramps and i will leave it there

there are plenty more

[Mark Neal.]

Oh John! You and your teasing cold ramp charts, you will never learn I like MK and i'm sure many others on here are very interested in this SSW and what is going to happen and the changes afoot, it is surely going to be primed watching in the coming days and weeks. I got a good feeling end of January & Febrrruary will be special

[Snowangel-MK]

I like MK

I like you too MN

(so when can I have a ride in your hot air balloon ? lol)

[john pike]

hi mark

i expect the cold air to kick in around the 15th

the cold charts posted are due to a weak atlantic

and jet drop resulting in an easterly flow

the ssw event is worth watching but we do not necessarily need this for a cold spell

time will tell .

[Mark Neal.]

I like you too MN

(so when can I have a ride in your hot air balloon ? lol)

Nice to know the feeling is mutual hahaha. Is that euphemism btw? lol ( On a serious note, when I pass my balloon pilots license your welcome to come and have a flight )

hi mark

i expect the cold air to kick in around the 15th

the cold charts posted are due to a weak atlantic

and jet drop resulting in an easterly flow

the ssw event is worth watching but we do not necessarily need this for a cold spell

time will tell .

Hello John. I tend to agree I think many people who are unaware that a SSW doesn't always guarantee us getting in on the fun, but also it doesn't necessarily mean we can't get cold, we can get a cold spell without though. As you say 'Time will definitely tell'.

[john pike]

Nice to know the feeling is mutual hahaha. Is that euphemism btw? lol ( On a serious note, when I pass my balloon pilots license your welcome to come and have a flight )

Hello John. I tend to agree I think many people who are unaware that a SSW doesn't always guarantee us getting in on the fun, but also it doesn't necessarily mean we can't get cold, we can get a cold spell without though. As you say 'Time will definitely tell'.

hi mark

adds to the fun of it

be nice to get a direct hit from the ssw event

models certainly getting interesting

be happier when the fax charts come into the time span

probably monday-wednesday will hopefully get good

i have to post my ramp charts or i cannot sleep at night

[Mark Neal.]

hi mark

adds to the fun of it

be nice to get a direct hit from the ssw event

models certainly getting interesting

be happier when the fax charts come into the time span

probably monday-wednesday will hopefully get good

i have to post my ramp charts or i cannot sleep at night

I agree its good to see ramp charts even when the weather at the current time is miles away from that given chart. It is just is a bit of fun. at the end of the day. The only difference being we all want to see cold and snow at the end of the day

[Snowangel-MK]

.......when I pass my balloon pilots license your welcome to come and have a flight

Oh yes please

I think there might be one or two other people on here who would like that as well so hurry up and pass

[Mark Neal.]

Oh yes please

I think there might be one or two other people on here who would like that as well so hurry up and pass

No pressure then! I hope to be flying out of Billing Aerodrome in August for the Northampton Balloon Festival may end up floating over MK

[john pike]

hi mark

just watch out for flying christmas trees

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=xsDZbRankCs#!