South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - December 29th 2012>

[Jason T]

Well, after a pretty tedious couple of weeks model watching, it appears some momentum is gathering towards a much colder middle/end of January. Let's hope this isn't the monumental let down that the phantom easterly gave us in early December. Fingers crossed, John Pike's chart ramping device is primed and ready to go!

JP Gonna be running around naked soon, Keep the updates coming John.

It's quiet in here...is everyone watching the pub run roll out? Things looking perky in the model thread at the moment!

Trust me,The Easterly that failed in December, was a blessing in disguise,What we are potentially looking at now is a true Winter haven with every trimming and a long haul. JP very right to call FI at short time scales as the models are going to change pretty quick whilst they deal with the Strat Warming.

[username home]

Hammond's 2240 forecast ended with a watch this space reference to developments in the stratosphere later on next week... Not often the beeb forecasters talk about anything like that...

[Ice Day]

Trust me,The Easterly that failed in December, was a blessing in disguise,What we are potentially looking at now is a true Winter haven with every trimming and a long haul. JP very right to call FI at short time scales as the models are going to change pretty quick whilst they deal with the Strat Warming.

I think you maybe right, this could be the prelude to a very decent event, however recent experience tells us to keep our feet well and truly planted until we're 48 hours out (probably 24 hours if it's an easterly)!

Edited January 3, 2013 by Ice Day

[Jason T]

I think you maybe right, this could be the prelude to a very decent event, however recent experience tells us to keep our feet well and truly planted until we're 48 hours out (probably 24 hours if it's an easterly)!

What is different this time is that the Atlantic is no where near as strong, Prime time Winter,Still a little way to go,but so far so very good indeed.

[mulzy]

I will be ramping soon

Although it looks safe to venture in the mod thread at present

Think a lot of excellent ensembles shortly :-)

Fax charts about half an hour

I will be too - but we all await the master ramper to come out of hibernation...

[Jason T]

HERE COMES OUR WINTER......

[Ice Day]

HERE COMES OUR WINTER......

Jeez, that's some snowball!!!!!

[john pike]

tomorrow

dry

very light south westerly flow

10-11 degrees

cloudy with the odd sunny spells

tomorrow night

light south westerly flow

dry

fog possible on south coast

6-8 degrees

saturday

dry

highs 12-13

better chance of some sun

very light west to south west flow

saturday night

dry

light west to south west flow

6-8 degrees

fog on coast line possible

sunday

very light south westerly flow

dry

cloudy

10-12 degrees

showers possible around anglia and yarmouth

monday

light south westerly flow

staying dry and cloudy

8-10 degrees

increasing chance of overnight fog and frost

tuesday

light west to south westerly flow

dry mainly with higher chance of some showers late afternoon

fog could be an issue again

8-10 degrees

[john pike]

lets look at the 120 models

ecm

gfs

fax

surprisingly not that far apart

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=0&mode=1

p 16 starts the cold air on the 11th

think its a bit too quick though

Edited January 3, 2013 by john pike

[Whereisthesnow?]

Quick question - can anyone recommend one definitive book I can read to understand the fundementals of reading the models please? Thanks!

[Great Plum]

HERE COMES OUR WINTER......

So that's how the strat warming happens...

[john pike]

gotta post p3

awesome run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=3&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=3&mode=0&carte=0

and that run would not be a snap that would go on for a while

[john pike]

Quick question - can anyone recommend one definitive book I can read to understand the fundementals of reading the models please? Thanks!

http://www.research.noaa.gov/climate/t_modeling.html

http://weather.about.com/od/forecastingtechniques/ss/mapsymbols_2.htm

http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/climate_models.php

worth a read

[80sWeather]

What is different this time is that the Atlantic is no where near as strong, Prime time Winter,Still a little way to go,but so far so very good indeed.

Yes prime time indeed!

Just a thought, when was the last time we had a good cold spell in the middle of January?

[Whereisthesnow?]

Thanks John!

[john pike]

fi is now the 9th so a day earlier than the 12z

dry to the 8th

warm until the 9th

some very cold ensembles from the 11th

[80sWeather]

Quick question - can anyone recommend one definitive book I can read to understand the fundementals of reading the models please? Thanks!

[Snowangel-MK]

UK Outlook for Friday 18 Jan 2013 to Friday 1 Feb 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to often be close to average for the time of year to begin with. Then, later, there is an increasing risk of more marked changes of weather-type occurring, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and wintry weather increases relative to early January.

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[Coast]

Things have got so boring weatherwise I've now taken the batteries out of my little weatherstation and put them in my TV remote

It's not what's current though, its the potential that's interesting!

Morning Regionnaires!!!

Looks like its going to get chillier after the 9th?

Edited January 4, 2013 by Coast

[Steve C]

Morning all.

Mild and cloudy here again.

I did notice John Hammond give subtle hints about changes afoot in the upper atmosphere, after the BBC News at 10 yesterday. I bet a few people in the model thread would have wet their pants on hearing that. However, I reckon 99% of the viewers would have wondered what he was on about. Interesting times ahead indeed.

[Coast]

I did notice John Hammond give subtle hints about changes afoot in the upper atmosphere, after the BBC News at 10 yesterday.

Morning Steve,

I think NW stole the march on the BBC yesterday:

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2463186

But maybe there was inside discussion?????

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2463171

Edited January 4, 2013 by Coast

[Steve C]

Morning Steve,

I think NW stole the march on the BBC yesterday:

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2463186

But maybe there was inside discussion?????

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2463171

I have been reading the Strat thread this year, though won't post there due to having nothing of value to add at the moment. I've obviously been noting the trends there.

I guess it's just a wait and see game now really. I won't get too excited until anything happens though (or a couple of days max before). 20 or 25 years ago I would have, but have had too much weather disappointment in the meantime and I have a 'whatever will be, will be' attitude now.

[Coast]

I guess it's just a wait and see game now really. I won't get too excited until anything happens though (or a couple of days max before). 20 or 25 years ago I would have, but have had too much weather disappointment in the meantime and I have a 'whatever will be, will be' attitude now.

Absolutely! It's interesting times though and great to watch any evolution, we just need to keep a calm head.

[Steve C]

I did follow your links Coast; I don't tend to go into the model thread much, as I find it irritating and I can work out most of what I wish for myself, or pick up stuff on this thread, or read the stratospheric thread for new stuff, but it seems like a few people did indeed wet themselves (metaphorically speaking)

Edited January 4, 2013 by Steve C