South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - December 29th 2012>

[Coast]

at the moment here its that yucky fine drizzly rain that is so depressing !

Got that here too MKSA, but it's not hanging around for long:

Edited January 2, 2013 by Coast

[hernebaylooby]

HNY hbl!!!!

A brief respite for a week or so gives us dryer, mild but drab conditions. You gotta take the rough with the smooth I guess?!

I suppose, dry ould be nice but im not liking the milder! well its again drizzling here letts hope we are getting all this rain now and not in the ( dare i say this word this time of year) summer!

[Ben_Cambs]

A poor afternoon of weather with drizzly rain and feeling cool in the rain. Not much to talk about weather-wise in the next few days, the general theme will be cloudy, mild and dry, though a break from the rain will be most welcomed I'm sure!

[Guest archiesmummy]

It's heavy rain here, wasn't expecting this much tbh...been like it for about an hour

Make that two hours!

Edited January 2, 2013 by archiesmummy

[Snowangel-MK]

Not much to talk about weather-wise in the next few days

I'm sure we will all be able to fill up the thread with something though

Edited January 2, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Ben_Cambs]

I'm sure we will all be able to fill up the thread with something though

Of course! At least the lighter winds will allow for less frustrating cycle rides for myself too! Can feel like this on a windy day..

[Snowangel-MK]

Of course! At least the lighter winds will allow for less frustrating cycle rides for myself too! Can feel like this on a windy day..

haha, that's funny....I'm planing to go a nice walk on Sunday (followed by a pub lunch of course) I just hope with all the recent rain I don't end up like this.....

[Keraunic]

Hi each. Drizzle here as well. My rain alarm has been working overtime and it keeps telling me that "Precipitation is so many miles away" Er...it's on top of us numpty.

[Coast]

Er...it's on top of us numpty.

I use these handy devices......

[Kent Snow]

Fairly steady rain in the past 30 minutes after light rain earlier. 7C.

[chilly milly]

Wet and miserable and muddy and squelchy. And that's just me after the dog walk.

[Coast]

Wet and miserable and muddy and squelchy. And that's just me after the dog walk.

Ewww nice, do you mind standing on this mat while you post then please, you're making a terrible mess on the wood flooring?!

[coldtoes]

Happy new year to all. Have been 'hanging around' for the last couple of years reading and trying to absorb as much as I can (hoping that something will stick). Hubby bought me a TFA Sinus weather station for xmas. Now trying to get to grips with that. So, hello to all and here's hoping for a cold spell in the not-too-distant future. :-)

[john pike]

calling fi on the 10th

quite a few cold ensembles showing from the 11th

my ramp run has to be p18 the orange red one

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=18&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=18&mode=1&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=18&mode=2&carte=0

run through them

the cold air starts on that run on the 12th

[Snowangel-MK]

Happy new year to all. Have been 'hanging around' for the last couple of years reading and trying to absorb as much as I can

Hello Coldtoes,

I'm pleased we haven't put you off and you've decided to post at last, nice to see so many people getting weather stations for Crimbo as well

[coldtoes]

Lol, thanks MKsnowangel. I feel like i've gone from the back of the classroom, head down, to the middle where i'll occasionally put my hand up ;-). Thoroughly enjoy reading everyones posts

[Paul Ashford]

Welcome Cold Toes - If you have any problems with your WS. I'm sure someone on here will be able to help.

[coldtoes]

Thanks Paul, i'll be sure to shout if I get stuck (high probability of that :-) )

[Jayces]

Happy New Year Everyone.

Now, where's the snow?

I hope this SSW malarkey delivers, I expect to have feet of snow here by the end of January until the end of March.

[Ben_Cambs]

I haven't done one of these for a while, but here's a model summary based on today's output:

The next few days herald in a quieter period of weather, with an area of HP building in from the south.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm721.gif

However, plenty of cloud will be trapped in the HP cell as well as plenty of mild air:

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm722.gif

For the majority of the time conditions will be cloudy, mild but dry with light winds. Temperatures generally between 9-11C during the day and not falling by much at night. These conditions are likely to last into the new week.

Further ahead, it does appear that Atlantic driven weather will struggle to return to the scene, and it's likely that the region may not recieve any meaningful rainfall again until the middle of next week at the very earliest. For example, this UKMO chart at T+144 would give wetter conditions to the NW of the UK but our region would remain dry:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

Judging from the ensemble means of the GFS, ECM and NAEFS, I believe the drier theme than of late will continue for the next 10 days at least. Though some rain can't be ruled out, drier weather appears more likely:

NAEFS: http://176.31.229.22...-0-0-240.png?12

Suggestive of higher than average pressure around and just to the south of the UK, with the main Atlantic trough further west towards Greenland.

ECM 0z ens : http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

Mean for >1025mb pressure at T+240, suggesting drier weather.

GFS ens 12z London: http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

Not many precipitation spikes on that graph. Also to note gradually cooling temperatures in the longer term.

So to conclude, remaining mainly dry over the next 10 days with the risk of rain only increasing to the end of the 10 days, temperatures dropping off slightly towards the average by the end of the period too.

Lastly, I'd like to apologise for not doing any updates for a while, the run-up to Christmas was very hectic and unfortunately didn't have enough time to post model updates. Hopefully, I'll be able to start doing them a lot more regularly again.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Ben_Cambs

[Keraunic]

Anyone notice how its staying lighter for a teeny bit longer? YAY! Now, some snow would brighten it up even more.

[gottolovethisweather]

calling fi on the 10th

quite a few cold ensembles showing from the 11th

the cold air starts on that run on the 12th

Can we bank that please. Going as predicted by myself and Ben_Cambs, so all looking good, just make this appear at t+120 in about five days time and it should be looking tasty.

[Jason T]

BOOOOM.. Clocks Ticking.

ANALYSIS STRATOSPHERE

STRATWARMING 2013: chronological monitoring of Sudden Stratospheric WARMING and possible frost in TROPOSPHERE in January 2013

Details Main Category: teleconnections & Stratosphere Category: Analysis Stratosphere

03 Jan2013

We begin immediately by saying that a strong and fast phenomenon of heating to the reference height of 10 hPa in Stratosphere, it is not always intended to propagate into the underlying Troposphere , making notes phenomenologies cold weather due to the destabilization of thePolar Vortex tropospheric and the subsequent transport of masses of cold air that make up thetemperate mid-latitudes .

Clarity on this important point , we show readers that the various posts of renovation aspects of the situation that we are monitoring, this article will appear in ascending order , so that their reading is recommended from the bottom of the article to rise to the top .

Also, to facilitate the understanding of what we are going to publish below you should read the simplified summary teaching on the phenomenon of Stratwarming in order to orientate on analysis and explanations , which may otherwise result in difficult to understand for those who are not expert in the subject matter .

Click below for teaching simplified summary: Stratwarming: Concept Summary

And we also see the example of actively Stratwarming type Wave 2 that occurred between 20 and 27 January 2009 andnot involved with its icy consequences on the Mediterranean, instead placing them between Central Asia and North America .

In the first picture animated example of how the increase in the 10 hPa geopotential in the Arctic , go to replace the normal area of low pressure on ' Arctic with a figure of High Pressure .

In the second image animated example of how rising temperatures at 10 hPa in the Arctic , go to split in two thesingle lobe of cold Arctic air and place it in the form of two distinct lobes icy between Central Asia and North America.

WARNING!

CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO VIEW THE ANIMATION.

To follow the updates of the situation.

At 03 by Luciano Serangeli (01/02/2013)

We are approaching with great strides in defining moment of the main and most powerful event of the winter season.

Between 4 and 6 January we will reach the peak of heated ( stratwarming ) already in place at the height of isobaric 10 hPa in Stratosphere. Within a few days the increase in temperature will exceed 50 degrees Celsius.

A fact that will determine initially a strong movement (displacement) of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (low pressure area) off-site natural, because of the powerful new figure anticyclonic that supplant and then, from the maps at our disposal specialist, will lead to a split (split) of the VPT same in two distinct lobes.

This heating layer, if at the same time determinasse reversal of the temperature gradient between pole and 60 degrees north, the reversal of the motion of the zonal stratospheric winds that become the East or in the absence of these factors, a value ofNAMless than -3, may be counted as Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming .

Only after the maximum heated to 10 hPa the new set-baric heat will be transmitted down to reach the ground presumably from the middle of the month and the end of the second decade.

But let's look at three slides that summarize what has been said, the temperatures and geopotential anomalies at altitudestratospheric reference 10 hPa (about 30 km above the ground).

Today, January 2, 2013.

Heated already very intense at 10 hPa, but not maximum and essentially located within the Russian-Siberian mainland.Stratospheric Polar Vortex shifted slightly but still largely in place.

January 6, 2013:

Maximum extension and intensity of the heated to 10 hPa. Stratospheric Polar Vortex off-site, located mainly in North America and Central and Eastern Europe.

January 9, 2013:

Heated to 10 hPa still very present and split (split) of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in two distinct lobes, between North America and Central and Eastern Europe, with particular interest in the Mediterranean area.

Although it is normally maintain proper care of atmospheric phenomena so far apart in time level, good reliability in long-term tropospheric forecasts, provided by the Stratosphere in winter to forecasters, it begins to testify in an increasingly clear the most likely transition the current weather situation-zonal oceanic, mild and humid, with a harsh cold weather during episodes of retrograde nature, with marked continental characteristics, and by many, even scientific, are shown to continue throughout the end of January and for most of February 2013.

We'll see, continuing to monitor day-to-day evolution of the situation.

[scrat]

Just been watching natures weirdest events and loved the cloud formations they showed, totally incredible. And, I didn't know that ice was a factor in lightening. Learning all the time :-)

[Summer of 76]

Well having just visited the Model Thread I honestly feel that someone will be raising an urgent resolution at the next UN meeting for peacekeepers to be deployed, Coast MKSA and GLTW your blue helmets are on standby . I think there is a mixture of frustration the models are not showing what most people want along with the first day back at work.

So nice to return home to the regional thread