Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

[-uksnow-]

http://web.kma.go.kr...1.10.21&x=5&y=9

And a link for KMA charts, were on the left been tilted on our side.

Edited January 3, 2013 by -eded-

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

A question for the more experienced members - the mjo is something many people have said they are worried about recently, is the forecast very reliable? I seem to remember just yesterday someone posting the mjo plots and there was a weak phase 5 after phase 3-4 now it seems much more progressive towards 7-8? Is this normal?

And with regards to the NAO/AO what, ideally, is best for cold to be delivered here?

Thanks to anyone that can't be bothered to answer the questions, avid model follower but teleconnections I find difficult to understand!

I can't answer your question about the MJO I'm afraid but the NAO needs to be negative, usually caused by a blocking mid Atlantic high stretching to Greenland. If the AO is also negative this is also a good thing if you want cold in the UK. Thats my basic understanding anyway.

[legritter]

A very interesting spell of modell watching on its way i think .i know its early days but starting to see some good high pressure starting to show up in poles on later charts .from my little knowledge of SSWarming i have today had a good read up on info and find the science very interesting and although its in its infancy i think with modern computers and sattelites we could fairly quickly learn exactly whats going on in our upper atmosphere .but back to now and the mild continues for quite a while then probably low pressure moving back in from the west ,but how far east and south low pressure gets is still to be modelled .I personally think given all the present Telleconnections that mother nature is a cooking ,will it be a nice dish full of winters of old or a boring dish of woe ,not long to wait ,just hang on in there gang .

[Interitus]

Done some searching, not sure if this is of any help but hey ho!

Courtesy of Americanwx forum:

"The model output from the Korean Met Agency is actually a version of the Unified Model (which is the proper name of the UKMET model) that they started running in 2007. They started using a 4DVAR assimilation scheme (like the ECMWF) earlier this year, and they're planning a resolution increase from the current 40 km to 25 km. The red line on the graph is their 4DVAR-based upgrade...it'll be interesting to see more results from that, especially after the resolution upgrade."

and i know this is outdated but if anyone can decipher it then go ahead as it was with the above quote

That graph shows even the new Korean model performs worse than the Japanese JMA - make of that what you will.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Latest tweet from Matt Hugo reguarding the AO

https://twitter.com/...3789056/photo/1

2m temperatures...just have a look at how above normal temperatures in Greenland/Iceland look!

https://twitter.com/...4834560/photo/1

Edited January 3, 2013 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[AWD]

Extended EC ens;

Make of them what you can!

[SMU]

MattHugo81

Once again, as expected, the 12Z ECM ENS are all over the place medium and long term, confidence in any specific weather type is low.

03/01/2013 20:48

MattHugo81

One uniform agreement between the GFS and ECM ensembles is, however, a marked trend towards higher pressure across the N hem. #ssw

03/01/2013 20:48

MattHugo81

EC32 day is updated overnight but I have a feeling it'll be useless at week 3 and 4 and won't be picking up anything of interesting yet.

03/01/2013 20:50

It was useless at week 1 with the last fiasco...... just for our memories.....

S

[nick sussex]

Extended EC ens;

Make of them what you can!

Two clusters one shouts coldish rain the other sledges! Given the SSW and the fact that through the chaos the ECM mean still splits the PV with one lobe in Canada and the other in ne Scandi then I'm happy to go with the sledge trend cluster.

[ChartViewer]

It was useless at week 1 with the last fiasco...... just for our memories.....

S

But then it was every model Steve....Lets be honest everyone got taken in and massively with that ECM.....Only an 18z GFS Shortwave started the alarm bells ringing for all of us. And how near to event was we....T96 if i remember correctly.

Edited January 3, 2013 by ChartViewer

[fergieweather]

Extended EC ens;

Make of them what you can!

Erm - what that spread does is exemplify the problem of forecasting into MR what might happen from SSW effects down the line: depending on positioning of any eventual blocking, the end result for us could range from very mild southerlies, to cold easterlies/northerlies; to mild/damp westerlies or effectively any hybrid of these and equally any from other compass point not yet mentioned! Trickyeee...

Edited January 3, 2013 by fergieweather

[snowking]

Two clusters one shouts coldish rain the other sledges! Given the SSW and the fact that through the chaos the ECM mean still splits the PV with one lobe in Canada and the other in ne Scandi then I'm happy to go with the sledge trend cluster.

Particularly if we end up with more of a northerly flow initially, those De Bilt ensembles may be a little skewed. Wouldn't be surprised to see the London ensembles looking a little better....though all of this said, given the widely discussed mid range uncertainty, this might all be pointless conjecture!

SK

[SnowObsessor90]

Oh dear I just let it slip to one of my family members about the potential we're starting to see hinted at so if this all ends coming to nothing again you can all feel free to blame me.

[SMU]

But then it was every model Steve....Lets be honest everyone got taken in and massively with that ECM.....Only an 18z GFS Shortwave started the alarm bells ringing for all of us. And how near to event was we....T96 if i remember correctly.

yep correct everything was wrong- funny how mild weather never implodes at 96 ....

We are in the same boat this time- With any cold I am drawing the marker at T60 for extra safety...

S

[chionomaniac]

But then it was every model Steve....Lets be honest everyone got taken in and massively with that ECM.....Only an 18z GFS Shortwave started the alarm bells ringing for all of us. And how near to event was we....T96 if i remember correctly.

It wasn't the shortwave and never will be - the upper pattern dictates the lower!!

The shortwave is always a consequence of the upper pattern - not the other way around as some would have you believe.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh dear I just let it slip to one of my family members about the potential we're starting to see hinted at so if this all ends coming to nothing again you can all feel free to blame me.

Now that's gone and done it lol

[lorenzo]

Don't mention 'that' ECM - still recovering!

FWIW here are the ECM and Ens with GEFS and control at 240.

[Cheshire Freeze]

yep correct everything was wrong- funny how mild weather never implodes at 96 ....

We are in the same boat this time- With any cold I am drawing the marker at T60 for extra safety...

S

I'll be sticking my head out of the back door to make sure it's actually arrived.....lol

[fergieweather]

Now that's gone and done it lol

Just say you're employed by Vantage Weather Solutions. Simples.

[ChartViewer]

It wasn't the shortwave and never will be - the upper pattern dictates the lower!!

The shortwave is always a consequence of the upper pattern - not the other way around as some would have you believe.

Ha Ha sorry you and Steve are the experts...you 2 battle the shortwave upper air pattern debate....Lets just enjoy what is in front of us ...Sorry for re igniting that one Chio/Steve ....Love both your posts

[Methuselah]

It wasn't the shortwave and never will be - the upper pattern dictates the lower!!

The shortwave is always a consequence of the upper pattern - not the other way around as some would have you believe.

Thanks for that, chiono. I couldn't quite find the right way of expressing it...

[Timmytour]

The upcoming pub run should be interesting, though I expect a nudge towards good things rather than a shove.

I'm sticking by my post written at 2:38 this morning, carefully crafted after several pints of Guinness...:-)

Look at what the 0z from friday morning starts showing.....that will be the establishing, if not the beginning, of an exciting model AND weather journey!

[SMU]

Erm - what that spread does is exemplify the problem of forecasting into MR what might happen from SSW effects down the line: depending on positioning of any eventual blocking, the end result for us could range from very mild southerlies, to cold easterlies/northerlies; to mild/damp westerlies or effectively any hybrid of these and equally any from other compass point not yet mentioned! Trickyeee...

Welcome to our world lol....

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just say you're employed by Vantage Weather Solutions. Simples.

I'm going to refrain from saying anything to my family for the time being. Though I am quietly confident of something at least a little bit more seasonal.

[SMU]

As for the shortwave debate its for another time to investigate- If you look at the archives there seems to be endless easterlies, never scuppered by anything always seemless in delivery-

However we dont have any memory of the ones that missed- of course have any dodgy model data that suggested an easterly that was scuppered last minute-

Our first real bitter blow was 2001 with the Kettley high that never arrived- because the angle of the jet-

However whats notable is the presence of shortwaves on the SW flank of Scandi Highs- they will be products of the jet flow, however sadly because they are so shallow they are usually picked up very late in proceedings- when the models start to get visibility of the pattern...

Lets see what the pub run brings...

S

Edited January 3, 2013 by Steve Murr

[fergieweather]

I'm going to refrain from saying anything to my family for the time being. Though I am quietly confident of something at least a little bit more seasonal.

Perfect phraseology ;-)

Edited January 3, 2013 by fergieweather