Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

[Weathizard]

Nothing quite like seeing those dark blues piledrive into us! It takes its time on this run but they get here eventually! Wouldn't take much to get them here 100hrs earlier though. Maybe even earlier:

Warming is progged in different places on this run though with the stratospheric vortex over us? Is this a good or bad thing in the long run?

Edited January 3, 2013 by Weathizard

[TEITS]

I know this is +360 but its a good example of what I said earlier.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

This is unlikely to be a repeat of the pattern we witnessed in Dec with a failed E,ly being replaced by mild zonality. Due to the warming in the Stratosphere if the first E,ly fails then we have hope it could return later as the 18Z suggests.

[nobble]

Off topic but at times like this the beeb should bring back rob mcelwee

[Zenarcher]

It may be in the low res part of the run but it's a positive sign indeed,

Large high over the pole

Warm up as well

[nick sussex]

A very entertaining GFS 18hrs run especially viewed from the NH.

Earlier the GFS doesn't deliver in the higher resolution even though it builds a better start but then doesnt take energy se, this wasn't helped by the track of the low moving through the USA.

Looking at the GFS one wonders what the UKMO will look like tomorrow, that looked really very underwhelming at 144hrs.

A confusing picture emerges this evening, I hope when the mist clears we see a clear and lowish stress route to cold and snow!

[Isolated Frost]

The vortex has truly been torn apart.

D11 and it's on it's knees. No sub 496dm in the northern hemisphere!

The details of the run is a strong signal for a large Arctic ridge to dominate, with HP nearby. Retrogression, PV into Scandi, Icelandic High, Scandi High all very much on the table. Exciting times.

[Dunstable Snow]

He talked about developmenmts high up (pointed up to re-inforce the message !) in the atmosphere having a major effect on our weather in the latter part of January. Did not mention cold specifically but suggested that viewers stay tuned. The overiding impression was one of excitement at a major development that we could potentially all feel on the ground. Lets hope so !

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Off topic but at times like this the beeb should bring back rob mcelwee

I agree, he would of mentioned the SSW and then given you a wink and a smile.

Edited January 3, 2013 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogaps/runs/2013010318/nogapsnh-0-144.png?03-23

The NOGAPSeven picking up the extreme signal- thats one amplified flow...

S

[Bristawl Si]

The vortex has truly been torn apart.

D11 and it's on it's knees. No sub 496dm in the northern hemisphere!

The details of the run is a strong signal for a large Arctic ridge to dominate, with HP nearby. Retrogression, PV into Scandi, Icelandic High, Scandi High all very much on the table. Exciting times.

Dry though?

Or am i interpreting incorrectly?

[The Eagle]

http://modeles.meteo...0-144.png?03-23

The NOGAPSeven picking up the extreme signal- thats one amplified flow...

S

Been very consistent last 3 runs incidentally.

[mulzy]

Been very consistent last 3 runs incidentally.

Maybe NOGAPS is leading the way?

[TEITS]

I know its the NOGAPS and I apologise for going on about +144 but I really do think we have the potential of still witnessing a correction W of what the NOGAPS is suggesting.

Im hoping over the next few days that we see a correction W which would mean those N,lys aren't just pushing down the N Sea into Germany but also the UK. Beyond that then you would see the flow veer towards a NE and finally an E,ly.

[Chris K]

Dry though?

Or am i interpreting incorrectly?

At this frame it looks dry for the UK. However Isolated Frost was referring the excitement to the whole northern hemisphere pattern shown. That's how I read it anyway.

Edited January 3, 2013 by Chris K

[Isolated Frost]

Dry though?

Or am i interpreting incorrectly?

The chart shown would indeed be very dry for the UK (very cold though), but the hemispherical pattern is the one to look for at this juncture, and it is looking very interesting.

[on the coast]

A very entertaining GFS 18hrs run especially viewed from the NH.

Earlier the GFS doesn't deliver in the higher resolution even though it builds a better start but then doesnt take energy se, this wasn't helped by the track of the low moving through the USA.

Looking at the GFS one wonders what the UKMO will look like tomorrow, that looked really very underwhelming at 144hrs.

A confusing picture emerges this evening, I hope when the mist clears we see a clear and lowish stress route to cold and snow!

I know exactly what you mean. Was expecting some serious eye candy although I know everything past 96-120 is a mash at the moment.

[Glacier Point]

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

.. probably one of the most negative AO charts you'll see. Polar vortex completely, utterly destroyed.

The gyre of the whole upper atmosphere is clockwise for a considerable 5-10 day period which pancakes the tropopause and the entire hemispheric circulation breaks down. Cold air is displaced into the tropical stratosphere and ypu'll likely see a U-wind response in the tropics with severely weakened trades and intense convective activity in the central Pacific region and Africa with feedback responses which will extend well into the spring (not necessarily a cold signal for Europe for the entire period though).

Remember, this is potentially the starter. A bigger wave response likely around the 25th - 28th Jan. Upper stratospheric profile continuing to bear a strong resemblance to 1987 for our side of the hemisphere.

Edited January 3, 2013 by Glacier Point

[bobbydog]

The vortices are shrinking on each run.

that's what model watching does to you!

[LomondSnowstorm]

The first hurdle to get over for me is to have something like this:

across the board at +60 hours on the Monday 12Zs. IF, and that's a big if at this stage, we can get to the point of having proper ridging northwards and a vertical or slightly negatively tilted trough, then we're going to have a much easier time of it down the line for whatever synoptic pattern may emerge. Sooner or later though, from that point, with all the carnage in the stratospheric vortex hopefully, as modelled by this run, transferring to the troposphere, you feel something very promising would emerge sooner or later...

[Dunstable Snow]

http://modeles.meteo...0-144.png?03-23

The NOGAPSeven picking up the extreme signal- thats one amplified flow...

S

Perhaps a little progressive but if we are there by next Wednesday we would be unlucky not to be in the freezer by the following Sunday. I do think developments will move quite quickly to cold once the mods get a final grip on the significant developments now taking place in the strat and MJO. Lets hope so as I am not sure I can cope with another early Decemner episode !

[weather eater]

Now that’s the sort of run I want to see, almost fantastic but not quite, some really interesting modelling today at least by the GFS and more to come over the next few days I suspect, but this time lets save the best till last this time, preferably within Steve’s 60hr mark.

Edited January 3, 2013 by weather eater

[Cloud 10]

Some subtle differences between yesterday's and today's 18z chart for the 10th of January.

yesterday.. today..

[snowking]

ECM32 control has just updated

Nothing of too much interest in January, some temporary ridges providing some small cold spells, with temporary height rises around Iceland too.

Towards February we see a Sceuro type high set up, but this is eventually pushed south by the end of the run.

What everyone should bear in mind, however, is that with even short range NWP in turmoil at present, something going this far out is, in all likelihood, pretty far off the mark.

SK

[Chris D]

Some subtle differences between yesterday's and today's 18z chart for the 10th of January.

yesterday.. today..

Geez louise...shows the uncertainty of it all lol.

Mind you, the GFS could well be on to something here (and NOGAPS as well)

Edited January 3, 2013 by Chris D

[Cleeve Hill]

Well this whole episode is great entertainment. All the big guns are on here tonight (just need brick fielder for the complete set) so you know something special is stirring. The power of the Internet is amazing. I remember years ago reading snow reports in the telegraph etc which was the closest you would ever get to knowing what was going on at the ski resorts. But now we can look ahead 2 & 3 weeks to watch things evolve.

You guys must get so much satisfaction in seeing this SSW come to fruition and lead the way in the forecasting of this. Special appreciation for chino, GP, Lorenzo and a few others. SM seems to have a smile on his face again.