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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Impressive consistency from the GFS over the last 4 runs, UKMO and ECM both had the troughs much further east by +120 even so hopefully they move more towards the GFS this morning. Still very far from a done deal but look at the westward shift over the last 48 hours.

4th January GFS 00Z:

gfsnh-0-144.png?0

3rd January 00Z:

gfsnh-2013010300-0-168.png?0

2nd January:

gfsnh-2013010200-0-192.png?0

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

Decent profile here

Rtavn1441.png

It is good but one thing that worries me is the strengthened PV on this run. Which will probably stop any heights which want to build out to the west near America. Edited by Panayiotis
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

This may turn into a Scandi ridge at 159hrs (image below)...

Edit: At 168hrs our weather is coming from the east, wonderful as suggested by me and AWD earlier.

post-17320-0-31780200-1357273469_thumb.p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Slowly but surely coming... (the cold that is ;) )

post-17320-0-38104500-1357273959_thumb.p

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Marked improvement on the UKMO, broadly the same idea by +144 as the GFS at least with the ridge northwards, albeit quite a bit further east.

UN144-21.GIF?04-05

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Far into FI but this is quite sublime...

h500slp.png

Couple of frames later and the UK (and a lot of Europe) in the freezer....

h500slp.png

Exquisite

ukmintemp.png

Edited by CreweCold
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted (edited)

I wouldn't take FI too literally when there's such volatility in the shorter term with the vortex modelling, but while the GFS 00Z is less 'progressive' with the solution i.e. splits the vortex and drops the majority of it into Scandi later than on the pub run, once it sets up it is an absolute peach:

gfsnh-0-312.png?0

Eye candy and nothing more at this stage, but nice to see all the same.

Would it be fair to call this the 'cobra run'? Certainly very close to it. Just stunning stuff.

gfsnh-0-384.png?0

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

And there she is! Amazing run, in the medium and long term, I would put my bets if cold is coming that it will come from the east, Perturbation 5 seems to be the leader! tease.gif

This seems to fit very nicely with what I said earlier, most of the UK under snow!

post-17320-0-42443000-1357274759_thumb.p

post-17320-0-60733700-1357274917_thumb.p

Edited by Panayiotis
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Zenarcher Seasoned

Zenarcher

Posted
Posted

3 positive things so far from the outputs this morning,

1. GFS FI is good I'm sure many people will be happy with it.

2. When comparing the UKMO 12z and the latest 00z run we see it pushing the Atlantic lows heading into the S of Greenland West which is what we want to see and more importantly goes against it's 12z run and more in line with the other models now.

3. When you go back and look at the Northern Hemisphere temps I notice something interesting as time goes on the GFS is making the temperatures slightly warmer each day as everything is coming into a more reliable timeframe.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Amazing FI

gfsnh-0-372_mwc4.png

gfs-0-372_vvx9.png

gfs-1-372_xbc5.png

Anyone "cool zonal"? LOL

No it's anti zonal, the much nicer and cooler sister of unpleasant uncle barty

Edited by CreweCold
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Jonan92 Enthusiast

Jonan92

Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Posted (edited)

Nogaps anyone?

nogaps-0-180_ihm5.png

Run de Controle

gens-0-1-192_ntl0.png

Edited by Jonan92
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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted

some ride it's been over the last 24h long may it continu.

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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett Community Regular

Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Posted
Posted

Fantastic 0z GFS with a big piece of the PV making its home in scandy!! UKMO on the other hand is going to offer little prospect for cold at 144 with again far too much energy to the NW,hopefully ECM will be better than the 12z yesterday.

Basically at last we have some kind of hope on the horizon,until i see the euro's come on board im not getting suckered in,not a jot...

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Some nice cold charts still out in GFS FI from the East... We just need the ECM to jump on board now.

gfs-0-372.png?0

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted (edited)

Ensembles are indeed poor, but control and opp are very similar at 192 which is a good sign.

I do agree though that excitement should be kept firmly in check and fergies post yesterday evening should be kept in mind as significant changes will still be occurring over the next few days in the output.

Jason

Edited by Jason M
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Shouldn't get myself worried but I've noticed a fairly marked rise in the mean on the ENS and actually not as many members going for severe cold. Strange how the OP and control finally get on board and the ENS start to get off the boat! Still good though, obviously not complaining just something to watch!

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

The ECM is simply not building pressure to the North in the same way the GFS does and it's 0z looks a carbon copy of its 12z last night, the Azores High remains the dominant feature and the jet rides over the top to keep us very much on the mild side.

Unfortuantely the gefs ensembles are not great with the majority going with some kind of mid latitude high,with ukmo looking in my opinion pretty poor for cold down the line i hope people dont get to optimistic.

As ever time will telll...

Yes certainly if the mid-term synoptics play out like the ECM then it's a poor outlook going forward from days 7-9 for any cold down the line.

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weather is fun Newbie

weather is fun

Posted
  • Location: north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: north yorkshire
Posted

Think too many are expecting this ssw event to bring cold to the uk to be garenteed. Sorry but dont think it will happen like that. Never thought i would say it but im with brain gaze on this one. With the uk missing out on the cold. Think the models will firm up late weekened early next week. But not expecting anything cold and snowy to hit the uk im afraid. The esembles dont look too good for us. The azores high looks like remaining dominante keeping us on the mild side. All im saying is dont get your hopes up again. As you may be very dissapointed again.

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted (edited)

chipper smile.png

im glad I tuned in for the 00z.

The jet is getting slower and slower.....

ukmo raw catching up fast....

S

Steve - remember your own words about what you call the F.F.S in FI !

I'm a little concerned that no other models are building pressure to the North in anywhere near the same way as the GFS control and OP, and I think some sort of flattening is likely, whether we will get another shot a bit later in the month we will have to see.

Edited by Ian Brown
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