Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

[snowhope]

Hi All,

Dont post very often but I was wondering if Ian F would be kind enough to shed some light on a question I have. (dont worry its not asking if its going to snow in X location in 10 weeks time)

You hinted at a possible change to the current pattern some days ago now after meeting with colleagues at the Met. This was some time prior to todays charts showing the beginnings of possible change mid month. You guys obviously have access to data more that what we get to see by looking at the standard models but what were these decisions based upon? Was it the SSW that is occuring or a mixture of massive data collection, experience and human input? Either way predicting the changes back towards the 22nd of december (I think thats when you mentioned it was stated to yourself and colleagues) could be a very accurate prediction.

I hope its not too much like the magic circle and you cannot reveal all your tricks but it would be interesting to know.

Many thanks for your time.

Gavin

Edited January 3, 2013 by snowhope

[fergieweather]

John Hammond mentions the SSW on BBC Weather!

Well, that was unexpected. Ian F was right...

Admittedly he tipped me off... ;-)

[Chris D]

Admittedly he tipped me off... ;-)

Lol!

[mulzy]

Just scanning the GEFS 18z and huge variation at just 144 hrs.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0

Edited January 3, 2013 by mulzy

[from russia with love]

well john hammond has jinxed it now! i think that a major event is on the way similar to '85 although i still think that the real push for cold conditions will hit west europe from about the 25th jan onwards.

[fergieweather]

Lol!

The joys of having him as my mentor. And I couldn't have been assigned a better one in my opinion! A super bloke. As they all (and lasses) are at BBC WX Centre.

[EML Network]

I couldn't help but to post this, Peturbatation 20 at + 168 ...it would be sods law if the UK ended up slap bang in the middle of various pressure systems in every direction, and a forecasters worst nightmare I should imagine...any cold runs are going to be outside of the 192 range and so are to be taken with as much pinch of salt as the warmer runs are to be.

I would like to think by this time next week we'll know one way or another how the land is going to lay post SSW, and I'm expecting some wild variations on the ensembles between now and then.

[The Eagle]

Wild divergences on the ensembles. Kind of like a selection box.

[bobbydog]

Admittedly he tipped me off... ;-)

never go to beachy head with him....

[BarometerBunts]

Was just explaining to my husband a rudimentary description of what was happening in the stratosphere and how it MIGHT have implications regarding a pattern change in our weather when John Hammond makes a mention at the end of his forecast. Thanks to you guys my husband thinks I am a genius lol. So proud to be a part of the netweather community. We are all going to seem like experts when joe public catches on to the emerging links between our weather on the World up there and we can grasp the concept in laymans terms thanks to the educational posts of the likes of Chiono, GP and our favourite experts on here

[Timmytour]

A lot of quality guys work for the Met with the BBC, not least Ian Ferguson, and its great to have his input on this thread, and through him the input of others.

But you have to say the BBC news lot can be numpties. Having widely reported in april that the drought was set to last till Christmas ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-17690389 ), and related this to global warming, they then pursue the fact that we ended up with so much rain as evidence of ....global warming!!

And now they claim that the wet conditions are set to stay and become the norm.....yet in their report they do not refer once to the excellent guys in the corporation whose business is the weather. And no wonder, because the professionals know you can't tell what's three weeks ahead let alone what things will be like for years to come.

So I wonder if what could be evolving in the models now, leads to the kind of severe spell of winter most of us long for, what the BBC news lot will make of it? "This looks like being the way our winters are going to be from now on"

The Corporation's news team has such an agenda with forcing the notion of global warming upon us... it's great to see Ian on here remind us that not all their staff has the mentality of the news lot!

[snowuse]

The joys of having him as my mentor. And I couldn't have been assigned a better one in my opinion! A super bloke. As they all (and lasses) are at BBC WX Centre.

And he loves the Quo, which proves his superb judgement!

[Chris D]

And he loves the Quo, which proves his superb judgement!

Haha, was just gonna say! Ooops, sorry I think I've made too many posts in this thread now...back to quietly viewing it...

Edited January 3, 2013 by Chris D

[Isolated Frost]

Here's the d11 GFS hemispherical view.

508dm, 532dm, 556dm and 580dm shown (edited on paint, so sorry!)

Vortex destroyed, polar high ridging in and disturbing the longwave flow majorly across 70-90N. If you see zonal, I see madness... this looks a very ingrained pattern where we will get reloads whether we hit or miss.

Took a while, it's pretty shoddy but I'm distracted by Football Manager... who needs the models when you're transforming an Icelandic second division side into world-beaters?!

Mon Por Akureyri!!

[swilliam]

Nice looking ensemble mean at 192 - split vortex, artic high, ridges in the Atlantic and alutieans

[Cheshire Freeze]

The joys of having him as my mentor. And I couldn't have been assigned a better one in my opinion! A super bloke. As they all (and lasses) are at BBC WX Centre.

He's one of my favourites, if not my favourite. He seems to have really stepped up in the past few years and seems genuinely enthusiastic about his profession. Who can blame him given the intrinsically interesting nature of meteorology!

[fergieweather]

Hi All,

Dont post very often but I was wondering if Ian F would be kind enough to shed some light on a question I have. (dont worry its not asking if its going to snow in X location in 10 weeks time)

You hinted at a possible change to the current pattern some days ago now after meeting with colleagues at the Met. This was some time prior to todays charts showing the beginnings of possible change mid month. You guys obviously have access to data more that what we get to see by looking at the standard models but what were these decisions based upon? Was it the SSW that is occuring or a mixture of massive data collection, experience and human input? Either way predicting the changes back towards the 22nd of december (I think thats when you mentioned it was stated to yourself and colleagues) could be a very accurate prediction.

I hope its not too much like the magic circle and you cannot reveal all your tricks but it would be interesting to know.

Many thanks for your time.

Gavin

In summary (and bear in mind we've yet to see outcome, so can't be premature assuming correct assertions!), it's a combination of the likes of GloSea4; some extraordinarily large & qualified brains at Hadley Centre who run it; and varied senior forecasters who've trodden this SSW path before. Hadley remain understandably non-committal on current outcome until we see some more consistent nearer-term output. But watch this space.

[Weathizard]

Ens at 240 looking chilly, not a lot of mild runs. + noticed high pressure seems more dominant in the NH in past runs, even over the uk looks more prominent.

[johnholmes]

John, as an avid follower of your posts, would you please explain why you are so bullish of cold in the uk compared to your usually quite conservative (and indeed balanced) self? I thought you wanted to see 3 consecutive 500 mb charts going the same way before you nailed your colours to the mast. Surely that hasn't happened already at this early stage has it?

Far more amateur than you of course as a former professional, I'd place the odds much lower though (although perhaps we should say odds of what precisely) and I am nowhere near the biggest doom merchant on this board!

hi WB

I have now seen 3 days of output from the anomaly charts that all show a similar idea. That is +ve heights developing n of the UK, ranging from NW-ENW so in my view a change of type is about to occur. It also fits in with, however amateurish my view on 30 mb temperatures spikes is, for a blocking possibility 10-17 January. Some reserve on this as the first spike for cold and blocking around Xmas did not occur other than the Cairngorms/n Scotland areas. The NAE output, yesterday and today is less shall we say ghungho, (spel wrong I am sure) than either NOAA 6-10 or its 8-14 version today or even ECMWF-GFS outputs. Still on balance I am fairly sure, as the 80% suggests that within 6-14 days this block will occur?

Of course I could be wrong, not the first or the last, but at some point as a forecaster you have to get off the fence.

hope that answers your question?

[kumquat]

Here's the d11 GFS hemispherical view.

508dm, 532dm, 556dm and 580dm shown (edited on paint, so sorry!)

Vortex destroyed, polar high ridging in and disturbing the longwave flow majorly across 70-90N. If you see zonal, I see madness... this looks a very ingrained pattern where we will get reloads whether we hit or miss.

Took a while, it's pretty shoddy but I'm distracted by Football Manager... who needs the models when you're transforming an Icelandic second division side into world-beaters?!

Mon Por Akureyri!!

Yeah, but that's at T+300. The Celts beat you to it by a few thousand years

Edited January 3, 2013 by kumquat

[-uksnow-]

I'll take a ptb 2

with a side order of 11 please

[SMU]

I see GP's super AO & raise him a MEGA -AO

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-2-1-276.png?18

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

I see GP's super AO & raise him a MEGA -AO

http://modeles.meteo...-2-1-276.png?18

S

Won't see too many better than that Steve.

[johnholmes]

^^ I doubt the public will even recognise the stratosphere- as far as most are concerned its where episodes of star trek are filmed...

It would need a decent amount of forecast time to convey a message, something the beeb are very poor at given to the met office.

S

As for the shortwave argument- its due to the positioning & speed of the jet- it not to do with the upper pattern im afraid-

The reason the high pressures didnt retrograde together in December will have been the jet that was FORECAST to split in the atlantic & move east through svalbard, when in reality the Jet split in the atlantic & lopped north, then moving south through norway- hence the development of a shortwave in that region.

I have to pick that comment up Steve.

Where do you think the jet is if its not in the upper air?

Of course the upper pattern sets up the situation where the so called 'short wave' better termed small low, develops-totally wrong to imply otherwise from a meteorological stand point.

[fergieweather]

Won't see too many better than that Steve.

Indeed. Troubling for anyone whose motor leaks antifreeze....!!