Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

[Mark Parsons]

1. Why are people guessing at the result of the SSW when no one knows the result for us?
   
2. Why do we need to be told that it won't be good for us, When no one Knows?
   
3. Why is the GFS wrong and ECM right, when no one knows?
   
4. To many people want to make a judgement in the hope that they can say told you so.
   
5. There is more chance of cold now than there has been due to various indicators, so lets see how it pans out. I think everyone knows we may miss out but.....
   
6. Lets see where we go from here and learn as we go.
   

What sums this up is the need to be mature, realistic and look on it as all being subjective in the name of fun!!! :-)

[Weathizard]

SW'erlies in FI matters no more than raging E'erlies in FI, Don't you read the posts from the Pros?

Not saying it does but toys tend to get thrown out the pram in here when a run shows great sypnotics only to bring a poor next run! Hopefully the ENS show come improvement though.

Very poor run, but hey ho, swings and roundabouts, the models at the moment are about as much use as a chocolate teapot!

Edited January 4, 2013 by Weathizard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

One can only await the inevitable model downgrade now as 00z was perfection...we saw it in Dec...will we see it again?

BFTP

[Southender]

Awful 6z GFS run.

Chalk and Cheese from its earlier output.

Nothing to be concerned about just yet.

Plenty more chopping and changing to come.

[weather eater]

Still miles apart at 192 but I feel the GFS has moved SLIGHTLY towards the ECM here.

Not looking forward to the fall out if this run brings in SW'lies! (Toys being thrown) and/or it all goes to pot! Have to say as well this is what the big cluster on the 0z pointed too, mid lattitude blocking getting a bit stuck and we are stuck west of the cold arctic air.

I think there is a danger of trying to read too much into model runs that don’t really have clue how things will evolve, obviously this is the thread for discussing the models but I think it would be wise at this stage to view post 120hrs with a large pinch of scepticism.

[Snowman31]

Really is tiring chasing snow in this country. Lets hope for the sake of our sanity that something good comes out of this SSW event.

[Radiating Dendrite]

So are we binning the 6z then?

Strap yourself in for the ride folks!

As has been said numerous times, one run should not be taken in isolation but in the context of other runs.

Hopefully the 12z will be more positive than the 6z GFS.

[Tim Bland]

It's runs like this that make me want to emigrate ! Seems 90% of the NH gets the cold and we miss out

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1&carte=1

Check out east Europe and the USA.. Even Florida is colder than us!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=384&code=0&mode=1&carte=1

We can't be that unlucky can we?

Edited January 4, 2013 by Tim Bland

[joggs]

Imo its too early to talk about upgrades and downgrades in the models especially when soundings from the mo are saying the ssw is only just affecting the outer reaches of the output and theres great uncertainty how they are going to handle the situation.

[TEITS]

Im liking the 06Z NOGAPS run.

Plenty to be optimistic about this morning despite the disagreement at +144. After reading the Strat thread the potential for blocking could well last for 6 weeks and then if you combine the fact that blocking has always been more likely in Feb than Dec the outlook is looking promising. Basically if we don't see a quick E,ly develop at +168 then the potential remains for cold spells to develop for the rest of Jan into Feb.

Prolonged cold spells for the UK has always been about getting many factors together at the right time and in my opinion this SSW has occured at exactly the right time.

[EML Network]

Looking at both the overnight ECM and the mornings GFS , I think that our first attempt at a cold spell of weather looks to be in about 11 days time, but IMO were going to be once again in a position where all the action is out to our East, where we go from there is a different story...but for those among you who might start to get disheartened should we fail at this first bite of the 2013 cherry, I'd say keep the faith as we'll likely get a good few bites at the cherry before Winter is over , the closer we get to Feb , the more I am hearing that this is going to be the month for one of those bites to pay off.

[bluearmy]

predictable responses to a 'less than inspirational' operational. there seems no reliable output at the moment. maybe thats not the case. the trend is probably away from a quick response this morning but that could easily reverse on the 12z's. the ecm mean looked better than the de bilt graphical. i wonder if the gefs will reflect the positive tilt on the ridge shown in the op? so many questions, so few answers.

[UV-RAY]

The 06z looks like being dry, cold and very frosty IMO. Perfect for those who have been flooded in the last month, I'll take that over any Easterly.

[Rollo]

Here we go again,members taking each set of charts in isolation. 00z over the moon,06z down in the dumps-give this current situation time or it will drive you up the wall. Just a note about Roger Smiths long range forecast if you have not read it or forgotten read it again.

Edited January 4, 2013 by Rollo

[Mark Parsons]

It's runs like this that make me want to emigrate ! Seems 90% of the NH gets the cold and we miss out

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=1

Check out east Europe and the USA.. Even Florida is colder than us!

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=1

We can't be that unlucky can we?

It's just the same for other parts of Europe, when we get cold we get it at the expense of say Eastern Europe sometimes, plus we have not been in a favourable position on the planet for quite sometime probably not since the last iceage lol...........

[bobbydog]

IGNORE EVERY RUN FROM EVERY MODEL AFTER 144HRS

alternatively, ignore every post from ian ferguson which contains information from a world class professional forecasting organisation....

[bradymk]

The 6z not as good for cold as the 00z and this is why i think the secondary warming over western Greenland is so important for us because if this occurs, even if we miss our initial chance next week, there will be even more chance following weeks. This is not like December, there is plenty of potential for further reloads to occur if we miss the initial hit of cold. We are looking at 4 or 5 weeks of very little PV in the NH which gives us an increased chance of blocking way into February. Please dont get too dissapointed by one run, i bet the ensembles will still be good along with the 12z's. I also think the ECM will move towards the GFS rather than the other way round from what i am seeing. Looking forward to hear more from Ian on any updates in the Met.

[chionomaniac]

predictable responses to a 'less than inspirational' operational. there seems no reliable output at the moment. maybe thats not the case. the trend is probably away from a quick response this morning but that could easily reverse on the 12z's. the ecm mean looked better than the de bilt graphical. i wonder if the gefs will reflect the positive tilt on the ridge shown in the op? so many questions, so few answers.

Still a wonderful run from a disrupted vortex point of view. When you are looking at specifics, for specific locations, ones mood will swing as much as the model output. If you look at the NH trend, then one can be as happy with this run as the last we are dealing with FI synoptic trends here - not close in T+72 detail. When we get the Arctic high - the situation is very much like the game Wheel of Fortune - where the high offloads itself to will be the lucky winner. Not us this spin.

Edited January 4, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Jason M]

Run does look in line with most of the 00Z ensembles to be fair. That said, watch the ensembles go cold again now :-)

I think this saga has a way to run. It seems to me that if we take what the strat guys are saying that we will end up with blocking to our north, however as others have observed we currently have the exact opposite. Assuming that the strat guys are broadly correct it seems to me that the models are having a nightmare trying to find a roadmap to switch from the current almost Bartlett set up where the end game should be.

As Fergie said yesterday, medium to long term models are unreliable at present.

Jason

[Robbie Garrett]

At the moment, the first cold blast of 2013 looks set to be January 13th-16th. As I mentioned last year from my email from the MetOffice, GFS past Day 8 is very poor and has a poor track record. Looking at the GFS past this date it goes for the high to be jet blasted out the way, a run I don't think possible. The GFS ensembles for London are trending cooler with some still showing some very cold weather coming up, this is probably as a result of the initial stratospheric warming that is shown....

Of all the models we look at we tend to find that the GFS is the most variable and has a poor track record past day 8.

Obviously there will be times when it does pick something up, but on the whole it is more often wrong than right at that timescale.

This may be one such occasion but don't really know and tend to be influenced by the ECMWF model, which is also indicating colder, but possibly nothing quite so extreme.

CFS..

ECMWF going for an easterly a little bit later, sooner rather than later though.

GFS going for something later too like with the ECMWF.

if you look at the Physics behind the positioning of the trough into Eastern Europe and the high centered over Europe with the positioning of the trough in the Atlantic , there is only one way that high will go. North!! Control, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6, P9, P11, P12, P13 and P19 all agree to some extent.

NCEP 500hPa mean anomaly.

[Mark Parsons]

IGNORE EVERY RUN FROM EVERY MODEL AFTER 144HRS

alternatively, ignore every post from ian ferguson which contains information from a world class professional forecasting organisation....

Good job you are wearing a helmet mate, your head could get a bit sore today banging it on that brick wall!! Seriously though if Ian F and co are saying what they are saying then who are we to question it?? Yes they could be wrong but come on guys give them some respect please!

[Buzz]

IGNORE EVERY RUN FROM EVERY MODEL AFTER 144HRS

alternatively, ignore every post from ian ferguson which contains information from a world class professional forecasting organisation....

Quite.

Better still, everyone should read (and re-read!) this earlier message from Ian:

[Troubleatmill]

IGNORE EVERY RUN FROM EVERY MODEL AFTER 144HRS

alternatively, ignore every post from ian ferguson which contains information from a world class professional forecasting organisation....

Have to disagree bobbydog, fair enough ignore t384 but fairly often the general set up is seen up to t240 end even slightly beyond sometimes, it depends on the set up you are currently in, sometimes its 72hrs dont look beyond and sometimes much further

Edited January 4, 2013 by Nick JB

[Heisenberg]

Not a great run, but as we all know the models are always going to struggle with a warming.....keep the faith, we will have our portion of cherry before the winters end....

[Methuselah]

Has there ever been a model 'prediction' at T+384 that's verified? I think not...But, at the end of the day, it's all academic anyway: weather doesn't 'listen' to man-made computer models...

Edited January 4, 2013 by Rybris Ponce