Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

[bluearmy]

The vortices are shrinking on each run.

[Isolated Frost]

It's the energy from the trough in N Norway that is stopping the arctic high from ridging southwards, though it is a superb run

[SMU]

It's a toasty 28 degrees in his neck of the woods soon up there...wouldn't fancy the frostbite on the way down..

24c is the magic temp!- on a par with my Jan 1985!

This run could be the cobra run where TEITS breaks out the beast signature....

S

[Dunstable Snow]

Interesting reading comments about not mentioning the potential cold spell arising from SSW ! Its a bit like Bazil Fawlty's dont mention the war sketch ! Anyway, I jumped in with both size 9's at a new years eve party. At around 1am we were asked by the host to come up with an interesting fact. I was second one in and the first participant is an IT geek so you can guess what his example was like... anyway, having consumed 2 bottles of red by this point i jumped in with my SSW fact to be followed up by a second 'canadian based' warming ( their was a canadian present so thought topicle) and potentially further warmingleading to severecold at mid latitudes. Unfortunately I didnt dwell too much on the fact that no guarantees for cold ! It was interesting to see how all 11 present got very excited about the prospect of snow and cold bar my wife who cant stand the stuff !

I hope that I m not going to be eating humble pie with this but I suspect most there were to drunk to remember. FWIW I think we will have some tooing and frowing over the nextcouple of days and then the moddles will pick up on a quick route to cold (within 168) which will then be sustained (with the normal waxing and waning) over the following weeks through to mid February.

Great analysis on here tonight by the way. Good to see SM back on form and the input from IF, together with CH JH and GP and others much appreciated.

Cheers

Cheers

[chionomaniac]

The vortices are shrinking on each run.

This kind of chart below is what I would have expected to see in tandem with the strat charts all along

It may or may not verify - but I find it a tad confusing that it has taken so long to see trop modeling that reflects the forecast strat conditions.

[Jonan92]

Vortex split

[Weathizard]

Look at the amount of troughing on the 10th jan? Unusual or normal?

[SMU]

This kind of chart below is what I would have expected to see in tandem with the strat charts all along

It may or may not verify - but I find it a tad confusing that it has taken so long to see trop modeling that reflects the forecast strat conditions.

I agree hence my growing frustration yesterday especially when you think at the 10 HPA level the modelling has been spot on-

Maybe the model isnt as good as we think in terms of making the 3D link-

Anyway the pub run is running out of high res time-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010318/gfsnh-0-186.png?18

A classical look- one of those archive type charts that is the mild before the bitter storm...

S

[syed2878]

thx guys for the replies regarding the cfs model.

[Jonan92]

Three chuncks of Vortex

[bluearmy]

Flip of resolution required to move things on. At least will be something to watch now!

[Chris D]

John Hammond mentions the SSW on BBC Weather!

Well, that was unexpected. Ian F was right...

Oh and yes, my word at the 18z! Has some similarities to the 06z this morning

Edited January 3, 2013 by Chris D

[minus 9]

John hammond just mentioned about the statosphere at the end of his forcast on bbc one.

[Jonan92]

1060hpa Polar High

[Cheshire Freeze]

Vortex annihilation on the 18z....

[Cloud 10]

1060 mb Arctic high!

[Bristawl Si]

John hammond just mentioned about the statosphere at the end of his forcast on bbc one.

So Netweather leads the way in the UK then! Have u guys got a decent PR rep?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Slightly off topic John Hammond on the BBC mentioned at the end of the 10:30 forecast about something happening high up in the atmosphere which though the month could have an impact on our weather! As per Ians comment earlier in the thread.

:o missed it!

[TEITS]

A classical look- one of those archive type charts that is the mild before the bitter storm...

S

These really are classic 1980s charts. I still think there is scope for one of those sudden E,lys appearing at +144 over the next few days i.e GEFS PTB 5. We often stare at E,lys at +240 and hope they arrive at +0 but sometimes in these situations they can arrive earlier.

Having said this maybe im just being impatient and don't want to wait any longer for the Siberian express train.

What on earth has CH done with the PV.

Your strat warming has given it a right kicking!

[Jason H]

Vortex annihilation on the 18z....

WOW!

[lorenzo]

The Ens within this run are going to be a riot for eye candy..

[Jonan92]

Strong third warming showed again, but in another place

[-uksnow-]

Anyone want to expand on exactly what john hammond mentioned?!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Anyone want to expand on exactly what john hammond mentioned?!

Or even better, upload the forecast to Youtube!

[weather_it_will]

Some cold air heading our way in deepest FI