Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[fergieweather]

it is easy to ramp like Ian and then end up wrong!! However we understand Ian whereas many do not, I imagine that there is a fine line between being informative and worrying people that there might be disruptive wintry conditions that will make their every day lives difficult.........

(1) I didn't ramp - I was careful with phraseology and caveats, as limited time permitted - even expressing the record-breaking divergence in model solutions

(2) It is indeed a fine line re informative and bamboozle, but I refuse to subscribe to 'dumbing down' and always have

(3) It's my job to ensure folk (especially the more vulnerable) are very much aware of the impending change of conditions, irrespective of any snow, and yes - sometimes it may cause worry, but we have to play with a straight bat and if some ensemble scenarios became reality, it would indeed be a highly disruptive phase versus the milder weather of late and especially disruptive given the ongoing recovery for many from impacts of heavy rain this winter.

(4) When and if we stare down the barrel of high confidence in any such scenario within 24hrs range, I'll most certainly up the snowy story. Even recent history demonstrates the potential for just 2cm of snow to cause chaos in Bristol and elsewhere across region. I'm forever conscious that for many, many viewers, snow isn't a big yahoo and is faced with dread by many ordinary folk and businesses.

(5) In any event - we ain't there yet, and despite runs today we're still some time away from the period of concern and can expect further model adventures, be they worsening the story or improving (i.e., latter in sense of less snowy / cold etc., as would be accepted as an 'improvement' by many of our viewers, rather than the weather fanatics and snow aficionados).

Edited January 8, 2013 by fergieweather

[cornish snow]

Given the circumstances of what is evolving this could well be a snow event even in Cornwall as there will be enough cold in the circulation, the big IF for everywhere is will there be enough ppn to support even a slight fall??

I cant tell you how many times iv'e looked out my window at a raging east wind sea hitting the cliffs and cold rain slamming down to only later find out,there was a blizzard in helston.

[Bristawl Si]

(1) I didn't ramp - I was careful with phraseology and caveats, as limited time permitted - even expressing the record-breaking divergence in model solutions

(2) It is indeed a fine line re informative and bamboozle, but I refuse to subscribe to 'dumbing down' and always have

(3) It's my job to ensure folk (especially the more vulnerable) are very much aware of the impending change of conditions, irrespective of any snow, and yes - sometimes it may cause worry, but we have to play with a straight bat and if some ensemble scenarios became reality, it would indeed be a highly disruptive phase versus the milder weather of late and especially disruptive given the ongoing recovery for many from impacts of heavy rain this winter.

(4) When and if we stare down the barrel of high confidence in any such scenario within 24hrs range, I'll most certainly up the snowy story. Even recent history demonstrates the potential for just 2cm of snow to cause chaos in Bristol and elsewhere across region. I'm forever conscious that for many, many viewers, snow isn't a big yahoo and is faced with dread by many ordinary folk and businesses.

(5) In any event - we ain't there yet, and despite runs today we're still some time away from the period of concern and can expect further model adventures, be they worsening the story or improving (i.e., latter in sense of less snowy / cold etc., as would be accepted as an 'improvement' by many of our viewers, rather than the weather fanatics and snow aficionados).

Great post Ian.

I think we all need to realise on here that we're v excitable folk because we find the weather so interesting and many netweather posters are fanatics.

We are v much in the minority in population terms.

Ian has to present to a whole region of the country where the vast majority are NOT like us. He is a professional with a brief to 'serve' all his media audience (TV and radio).

What he's doing on NW this winter is a bonus really, as most employers would not let one discuss 'work' in a public forum, unless one was in a Media relations/external comms position.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Jason74]

Got my Prozac and six pack of Stella ready for the pub run

[fergieweather]

PS latest UKMO analysis just received doesn't - on face value - look very wintry at all for most of southern England through weekend - exception being E districts /E Anglia / SE on Sunday and potential for some leading and back edge falls later Sat and again Sun, but UKMO v uncertain on N'ward extent to this. Monday mostly dry in their prog with exception of snow in far SE. Their modified GM fields looks nowhere near as snow-bound as the raw GFS indicated, for example, but take with suitable salt pinch.... will probably see MOGREPS and other snow probs etc later this eve.

Edited January 8, 2013 by fergieweather

[Polar Bear]

(1) I didn't ramp - I was careful with phraseology and caveats, as limited time permitted - even expressing the record-breaking divergence in model solutions

(2) It is indeed a fine line re informative and bamboozle, but I refuse to subscribe to 'dumbing down' and always have

(3) It's my job to ensure folk (especially the more vulnerable) are very much aware of the impending change of conditions, irrespective of any snow, and yes - sometimes it may cause worry, but we have to play with a straight bat and if some ensemble scenarios became reality, it would indeed be a highly disruptive phase versus the milder weather of late and especially disruptive given the ongoing recovery for many from impacts of heavy rain this winter.

(4) When and if we stare down the barrel of high confidence in any such scenario within 24hrs range, I'll most certainly up the snowy story. Even recent history demonstrates the potential for just 2cm of snow to cause chaos in Bristol and elsewhere across region. I'm forever conscious that for many, many viewers, snow isn't a big yahoo and is faced with dread by many ordinary folk and businesses.

(5) In any event - we ain't there yet, and despite runs today we're still some time away from the period of concern and can expect further model adventures, be they worsening the story or improving (i.e., latter in sense of less snowy / cold etc., as would be accepted as an 'improvement' by many of our viewers, rather than the weather fanatics and snow aficionados).

Well I thought it was perfect. I don't understand models I don't know you very well and I can speak for most of friends colleagues family who would appreciate your forecast and prefer to most that are currently given regionally. The thing is most dont seem to appreciate is i think it not only gives some information but raises awareness by empowering people with more knowledge. You get my vote and ill be tuning to you more frequently.

[dancing daisy]

I demand snow! I have told everyone after latest run. My weather geek certificate of excellence will be ripped up if this doesn't happen! <insert smilie - on mobile>

[snowflakey]

A rather Amby post from the IOW I'm afraid. Looks to me a very borderline snow event in my neck of the woods IMO, with a easterly flow on the Saturday with a slight maritime influence, however a better chance on the Sun with more of a NE, I'm probably reading the charts incorrectly. hope I'm wrong.

[dancing daisy]

PS latest UKMO analysis just received doesn't - on face value - look very wintry at all for most of southern England through weekend - exception being E districts /E Anglia / SE on Sunday and potential for some leading and back edge falls later Sat and again Sun, but UKMO v uncertain on N'ward extent to this. Monday mostly dry in their prog with exception of snow in far SE. Their modified GM fields looks nowhere near as snow-bound as the raw GFS indicated, for example, but take with suitable salt pinch.... will probably see MOGREPS and other snow probs etc later this eve.

Wrestled the laptop back after the shock of reading this, I cannot highlight on my mobile (inept).

What??!!!!???

[fergieweather]

Wrestled the laptop back after the shock of reading this, I cannot highlight on my mobile (inept).

What??!!!!???

Yes, interestingly they talk of rain for most areas; hill snow; more wintry flavour Sunday on back edge as it all retreats away but even then some of it remains as rain / sleet. Anyway - like I said - we await the detailed guidance and rationale - we've only had the abstract summary so far and graphics frames through to Monday. Strangely, the detailed stuff usually issued by 7pm but still not. They're obviously busy on it.

[flyer]

I logged out for a few minutes, but it's no good I had to come back.

Thank you, thank you, thank you for whoever did the naked snow dance - it may have worked

That'll be one of our new members then. Spotted earlier in the mod tent, sorry I mean room - "naturist-holiday.com"

Just in case I'm on the wind up check in the member search but best log out first else you could get approached

[davecornwall]

Is this the start of the dreaded downgrades?

I just hope is stays dry and cold over the few weeks, not the continued bloody mild and dull like it has for most of the year!!!!

[dancing daisy]

Yes, interestingly they talk of rain for most areas; hill snow; more wintry flavour Sunday on back edge as it all retreats away but even then some of it remains as rain / sleet. Anyway - like I said - we await the detailed guidance and rationale - we've only had the abstract summary so far and graphics frames through to Monday. Strangely, the detailed stuff usually issued by 7pm but still not. They're obviously busy on it.

Ah your just teasing! Aren't you!???

I thought this event was pretty much nailed on. Maybe the detailed stuff is late because everyone at HO is sitting around open mouthed at the latest charts?

[fergieweather]

Ah your just teasing! Aren't you!???

I thought this event was pretty much nailed on. Maybe the detailed stuff is late because everyone at HO is sitting around open mouthed at the latest charts?

Nope.

Still v v uncertain. Just chatted to UKMO. They aren't going for snowmageddon. But lots of uncertainty on detail.

[cornish snow]

Is this the start of the dreaded downgrades?

I just hope is stays dry and cold over the few weeks, not the continued bloody mild and dull like it has for most of the year!!!!

Forgive my ignorance but where is kelly brey

[davecornwall]

Just north of Callington

[cornish snow]

Just north of Callington

Thanks for that. Just couldn't place it.

So you should mean davedevon then

[dancing daisy]

Nope.

Still v v uncertain. Just chatted to UKMO. They aren't going for snowmageddon. But lots of uncertainty on detail.

[Polar Bear]

Nope.

Still v v uncertain. Just chatted to UKMO. They aren't going for snowmageddon. But lots of uncertainty on detail.

damn blast .. Oh well there's always tomorrow . And well if it downgrades then so be it - as long as there is still a colder outlook. Not too much to ask then is it ?

[jtay]

Ah your just teasing! Aren't you!???

I thought this event was pretty much nailed on. Maybe the detailed stuff is late because everyone at HO is sitting around open mouthed at the latest charts?

It's never nailed on at this range, I'm afraid. We're at T+96 and the position of the transition low will be crucial only for the weekend's excitment, but not for next week's cold.

Don't get hung up on Sat/Sun down here, everything comes to she who waits.

[noggin]

but I refuse to subscribe to 'dumbing down' and always have

I wish all tv weather presenters/forecasters felt the same.

Sometimes I cringe when I hear them talking about bits of blue, holes in the sky and so on and so forth!

[Dampdorset82]

PS latest UKMO analysis just received doesn't - on face value - look very wintry at all for most of southern England through weekend - exception being E districts /E Anglia / SE on Sunday and potential for some leading and back edge falls later Sat and again Sun, but UKMO v uncertain on N'ward extent to this. Monday mostly dry in their prog with exception of snow in far SE. Their modified GM fields looks nowhere near as snow-bound as the raw GFS indicated, for example, but take with suitable salt pinch.... will probably see MOGREPS and other snow probs etc later this eve.

My thoughts exactly, temps 3-4c higher for the M4 south. I would expect snow/freezing rain on the back edge....the biggest concern will be icy conditions for the south later in the night looks very dangerous indeed!

[Mark Parsons]

(1) I didn't ramp - I was careful with phraseology and caveats, as limited time permitted - even expressing the record-breaking divergence in model solutions

(2) It is indeed a fine line re informative and bamboozle, but I refuse to subscribe to 'dumbing down' and always have

(3) It's my job to ensure folk (especially the more vulnerable) are very much aware of the impending change of conditions, irrespective of any snow, and yes - sometimes it may cause worry, but we have to play with a straight bat and if some ensemble scenarios became reality, it would indeed be a highly disruptive phase versus the milder weather of late and especially disruptive given the ongoing recovery for many from impacts of heavy rain this winter.

(4) When and if we stare down the barrel of high confidence in any such scenario within 24hrs range, I'll most certainly up the snowy story. Even recent history demonstrates the potential for just 2cm of snow to cause chaos in Bristol and elsewhere across region. I'm forever conscious that for many, many viewers, snow isn't a big yahoo and is faced with dread by many ordinary folk and businesses.

(5) In any event - we ain't there yet, and despite runs today we're still some time away from the period of concern and can expect further model adventures, be they worsening the story or improving (i.e., latter in sense of less snowy / cold etc., as would be accepted as an 'improvement' by many of our viewers, rather than the weather fanatics and snow aficionados).

This is the post people needed to here, did'nt mean to offend you Ian but it got it off your chest! Thanks for a great post.

[liam300]

So guys what's making us have a warmer temperature then 50 miles north.

[Dampdorset82]

This is purely down to the positioning of the low pressure and the orientation. If the low slips just a bit further south then theres an opportunity but I dont hold much for snow in the south.....at this stage