South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 6th 2013>

[SHM040519]

Hi all! I'm wondering. What the snow risk is Saturday night as I'm coming home from a football match and we all know how Doh a dumb swear filter got the better of me southeastern are when it snows!

Thanks :)

[Steve C]

Morning all.

After later this weekend and early next week, the 00Z GFS main run looks decidedly uninspiring to me and a major downgrade on the last GFS run I looked at (12Z yesterday) ECM 00Z looks much better, to me, from a cold / snow point of view.

However, as JP indicated above, there doesn't seem to be any point in getting hung up on anything more than a few days away and I feel that there are interesting times around the corner. I didn't get too excited by the GFS run yesterday and I'm not stressed that it has downgraded.

[Amanzi]

Happy Birthday JP! Thanks so much for doing the fax charts and of course the nightly ramp. Much appreciated.

So sad... my blinking weather station just will not work. Wonder if I can ask hubby for an early birthday prezzie?

Have a great day fellow southerners.

[Steve C]

Oh yes, happy birthday JP and cheers for all your input.

[SMU]

Morning All

Expect the S word to start appearing in the forecasts today or friday night through sat onwards....

S

[Floatylight]

Happy birthday john.

Enjoy your day x

Well it feels a bit more chilly this morning and the temps are due to start falling today.

I have been told amanda houston said showers and sunshine over the weekend.

Another day of model watching then,fingers crossed.

Have a great day all x

wednesday 9th.

2002 vladivostok,russia,is buried under 20 ins(50cm) of the white stuff.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Floatylight

[TheBigFreeze]

Although a bit of a downgrade on the GFS 00z longer term it appears the ECM is still all out for a snowfest!! happy days

[Whereisthesnow?]

Hi Steve - how do you think us Bexley people will fair over the weekend and beyond?

[Steve C]

Hi all! I'm wondering. What the snow risk is Saturday night as I'm coming home from a football match and we all know how Doh a dumb swear filter got the better of me southeastern are when it snows!

Thanks

Here are the fax charts for Saturday and Sunday at midday.

To me it looks like the possibility of a transitional period on Saturday night - rain to snow.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Steve C

[abruzzi spur]

John P, Happy BIrthday and thanks for the forecasts! I have got you a book:

[Paul Ashford]

Hi all! I'm wondering. What the snow risk is Saturday night as I'm coming home from a football match and we all know how Doh a dumb swear filter got the better of me southeastern are when it snows!

Thanks

Ben, in all fairness to give you a definitive answer you will have to wait until Saturday morning and make a judgement call yourself, however the more knowledgeable people in this thread can give you a rough idea.

Where about are you travelling to and from?

[Steve C]

Happy birthday john.

Enjoy your day x

Well it feels a bit more chilly this morning and the temps are due to start falling today.

I have been told amanda houston said showers and sunshine over the weekend.

Another day of model watching then,fingers crossed.

Have a great day all x

wednesday 9th.

2002 vladivostok,russia,is buried under 20 ins(50cm) of the white stuff.

Spreadsheet model watching for me today, I'm afraid.

[SMU]

Hi Steve - how do you think us Bexley people will fair over the weekend and beyond?

Its a little early to tell-

If the ECm varfies then expect a covering to last all week with deep frosts-Really going to be the back end of tomorrow before we can start seriously looking at snow potential for 'local' detail-

I would say as a starter >50% chance of seeing snow falling sat

....S

PS the fax charts are now out of date above- expect to be more favourable on todays updates

S

Edited January 9, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Whereisthesnow?]

Cheers Steve.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

So the GFS throws a bit of a wobbler but that was expected..As for the ECM :0 We would be buried!

As for Saturday...We are getting closer but still to far away to tell...

Could be a serious snow feast IF we get all the right paramiters in...If the cold can get in quicker than foretasted it will be game on..

South coast...Don't worry.

.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Surrey

[afcone]

Do I dare jinx things by buying a snow shovel this evening?

[Coast]

Morning all and Happy Birthday to the Pikemeister!

So the possibility for snow this weekend still very much on and we can see how things firm up during the day and tomorrow. I'm sure somewhere in our patch will see more than just a dusting and hopefully for a couple of days. Now if the ground is going to be cold enough to let it lie for any time is another question, so lets get that cold in first then look to the sky!!!

I'll dig some charts out a bit later and see what the clever people say.

[yamkin]

Yamkin, welcome back, it feels like winter now! Is your signature:

It is wise to have survival supplies to hand where budget permits

part of the advice from Croydon Council or is it your personal view only?!

AS

My sig is my personal view. I have relatives in Devon and they were thankful as they followed my sig warning sometime ago and came in handy with the recent terrible flooding

[Steve C]

PS the fax charts are now out of date above- expect to be more favourable on todays updates

S

Maybe Netweather shouldn't use out of date charts then?

[yamkin]

Morning all.

After later this weekend and early next week, the 00Z GFS main run looks decidedly uninspiring to me and a major downgrade on the last GFS run I looked at (12Z yesterday) ECM 00Z looks much better, to me, from a cold / snow point of view.

However, as JP indicated above, there doesn't seem to be any point in getting hung up on anything more than a few days away and I feel that there are interesting times around the corner. I didn't get too excited by the GFS run yesterday and I'm not stressed that it has downgraded.

GFS does it again!! Don't worry as ECM is the front runner here and GFS will play catch up

[Wivenswold]

I always wait for the NAE model to come into the timeframe before I start looking at where snow might fall.

At present GFS is predicting sub zero dew points to spread SE from late Saturday night, so until that point anything falling will be rain. It looks as if it will be a wintry mix on the Northern edge of the rain band as it heads south, so I don't think anywhere in the SE will wake to a thick blanket of snow on Sunday morning.

Looking at the models and taking on board the Met Office caution I think the real snow action won't happen until Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Once the cold is entrenched.

[Weathizard]

Do I dare jinx things by buying a snow shovel this evening?

Now thats a bad idea!! Will be very disappointed if we get rain here, looking quite likely will just be sleet, need colder uppers to dig in faster. Failing that lots more chances next week of course,we hope.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thats got to be over cooking it surely? 6pm monday and -4?? Bet the energy companies are rubbing their hands together!

Serious risk to life if that was to come off

Would just like to add that "Winter" Starts tonight...First grass frosts may be tonight according to the GFS 2m temps and let the wintry spell continue Stay safe and enjoy the fun and games...This has not even started yet

Edited January 9, 2013 by Surrey

[Snow Obsession]

Happy birthday John and good to see you, Yamkin!

Kids back to school today and I'm back to work so will have to snatch moments to check on the action here. Looking hopeful but after so many let downs, I'll believe it when I see it by my own lamp post

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all:

Happy Birthday John and thanks for your input with the fax charts, good luck with your operation Victor, welcome back Yamkin, get well soon Coast.....(I hope I haven't missed anyone out !)

Seems to still be very much game on this morning from Saturday onwards then, I wasn't really expecting much other than lower temperatures until the middle of next week but there are some tasty charts around...Mmmmmm I did here the S word mentioned for Sunday on a forecast last night. I wonder when we will start and see some early warnings from the MetO, if that lot are still showing snow in another 24hrs or so surely they will have to get off the fence and tell people what might happen !