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Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Spring Weather Discussion

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Messy over the UK, but snow not out of the question

Rtavn1502.png

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

It's a weakening feature though Dave and the colder air is hardly catching up with the PPN as it slips away, perhaps back edge stuff ?

Yes I know mate but im just highlighting that in this situation the potential is there for some snowfall. This would be especially true if we see colder uppers spreading W more than the current model output suggests.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

The closer we get to this coming weekend, the more the models are hinting that it's going to be a close run, IMO the 18z would give smaller window of opportunity and this is 2 runs in a row now where are seeing the colder air shunted further East...if this carry's on during the coming days we may well end up YET AGAIN having everything just out of reach to our East...some worrying trends starting to emerge IMO

This weekend I'm viewing as a bonus. It's after this I'm concerned with and at 144 it looks good to me with the foundations being laid for a pressure rise around the Greenland area.

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted (edited)

Yes this weekend does indeed look fairly 'ordinary' on recent runs, but this is what is more important, as has been emphasised by Ian

gfsnh-0-150.png?18

The far stronger ridging into greenland, far earlier.

This weekend (indeed anything before the 3rd week of Jan) was always a bonus

EDIT: In wetter

Rtavn1561.png

A potential block building, with 1050mb heights over the pole! anyone unhappy with that at +150 needs to re-evaluate IMO

Edited by ITSY
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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

Crunch time around T150, the core of the heights is now over the Azores, if the LP off the Seaboard moves East it's through the weak link of heights to the South of Greenland and this then follows the GFS 12Z Control and the ECM...

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Crunch time around T150, the core of the heights is now over the Azores, if the LP off the Seaboard moves East it's through the weak link of heights to the South of Greenland and this then follows the GFS 12Z Control and the ECM...

Maybe we'll get a shortwave forming and running se off the troughing to the west.

That could help.

Someone nuke that Azores high!

Edited by nick sussex
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Very messy and very different from the last gfs run, useless model watching at the moment, nothing any clearer really, we are all still none the wiser!

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Slow moving front edging into some fridgid surface air and cold 850s, snow for some. Although this is way to far out to be taken with any accuracy, I'm just highlighting the "risk" of some wintry ppn with the projected synoptic set up.

Rmgfs1563.gif

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

This is funny, the low is wedged between two high pressure systems (Scandi and Azores) which one is pushing the low south but at the same time pushing the other pushing it north, therefore it stalls giving us the northerly but more important it stops the ridge in the Atlantic from toppling!

post-17320-0-98008200-1357597620_thumb.p

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

South westerly not far away!! Lets hope we can get some heights building to the north to scupper it eh!.

Rtavn1681.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

as someone else posted - messy. can i add 'unconvincing'. seems to be raising height in general to our north but no idea what to do with the different features - azores ridge, west atlantic trough etc. another op run to forget ?

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Mark Parsons Aficionado

Mark Parsons

Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
Posted

This is funny, the low is wedged between two high pressure systems (Scandi and Azores) which one is pushing the low south but at the same time pushing the other pushing it north, therefore it stalls giving us the northerly but more important it stops the ridge in the Atlantic from toppling!

I believe that is known as a Col !
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Yes here comes the shortwave to cut the Azores high off . Bye bye!!!

Its all very complicated as ever but we're relieved that the GFS showed zero support for the ECM.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

South westerly not far away!! Lets hope we can get some heights building to the north to scupper it eh!.

Rtavn1681.png

There is heights building to the north. Heights ever increasing around Greenland.

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

Personally, I'd look at it in this way given where we have been:

On this run, anything that falls after +126 will be snow away from (south) west coasts. Then ridging builds into greenland from the S, SE and NE. with 1045 arctic high developing. Plenty to work with within high res, then.

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

It's fine at T180 as the trough off the Seaboard has been held at bay, but if this where we are headed in the T96-156 range, then it's squeeky bum time because that low so could easily bust through whilst the core height anomaly is with the Azores High.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Yes here comes the shortwave to cut the Azores high off . Bye bye!!!

Its all very complicated as ever but we're relieved that the GFS showed zero support for the ECM.

For once the shortwave actually helped us out, not often that happens.

Azores high can now start to re-establish a link with Greenland.

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

From experience I still think the strength of the scandi heights is being underplayed. Stronger tonight than last night but more to come I feel. I'll wager that the fronts actually end up stuck out further west.

Jason

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

There is heights building to the north. Heights ever increasing around Greenland.

Yep, no ECM solution here, heights to the north keep the pattern blocked .

Rtavn1801.png

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

South westerly not far away!! Lets hope we can get some heights building to the north to scupper it eh!.

Rtavn1681.png

In theory yes, but in practice it can't happen because the heights building towards Greenland have won this game on this run.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

It's nice to think that this could be the state of the pv before the effects of the SSW are even felt! Could be a very interesting end to the month! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=0&carte=1

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