Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[johnholmes]

Indeed John because following these operationals will drive you insane at the moment.

Having said this a chart like this below must take you back a few years mate.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3481.png

Classic winter charts from the famous winters in the past!

very true Dave I am off to search the archives to see 1947, 62-63, 79, 81 etc or even Dec 10 with 35cm in 16 hours here.

Edited January 7, 2013 by johnholmes

[bobbydog]

not the best run but we can expect to see upgrades soon.....

[TEITS]

If anything the recent runs we have seen highlight the need for patience. Its not this weekend we need to concentrate on, but the following one when the fun "could" really begin...

I don't know about that. How can we really concentrate on next week when the outlook is so uncertain. Considering I haven't seen a snowflake this winter (like many) then the first chance could be this weekend. This could come in the form of frontal snow as the LP clears SE or a few snow showers on Sunday.

Whether im getting old but I don't have the stamina to follow all these wild swings in the medium range.

not the best run but we can expect to see upgrades soon.....

Maybe its getting late but im assuming you are kidding right?

Edited January 7, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Ali1977]

Be as good as 47

[Tim Bland]

Wow, minus the mild sector in the south at the end you couldn't paint a better run! I see GP is online, what's your thoughts? Is this possible or is it too much too soon? Bad news is... I've just seen the front page of tomorrow's daily express and they have jinxed it!

[Dampdorset82]

And if the 18z does not include any SSW info just image what it could be like if it did. Now where is my snow shovel.....

Just remeber SSW will only allow heights to build and will not promise a feed of cold air. If we fall on the wrong side of a block then game over!

[Whereisthesnow?]

I think the Huffington Post already beat them to it!

[nick sussex]

I really don't know what to think of at the moment in relation to some of these outputs...I feel totally drained. As mentioned very tight margins whether we get a cold spell next week or a route to mild stuff.

Yes its exhausting!

It was knife edge stuff towards the end of the higher resolution output. Really its all to do with how the energy off the ne USA phases and a race then to get the ridge building over Greenland to exert some forcing on the pattern. Once you cut off the Azores high and get energy under the building ridge to the north good things can happen.

The GFS and UKMO do largely agree on the upstream pattern in terms of how the energy phases, its the ECM which is the real sticking point.

Lets hope it reads the script tomorrow and we see agreement on that more favourable upstream pattern.

[Mark Neal.]

At this point you don't want that to happen, you want the ridging to extend south from the north and energy to cut east under that.

The Azores high at this point is nothing but a complete pain.

Its about time we get a shortwave which is favourable for once! Anyway looking at the model data this evening, it does look like turning colder than of late as we head beyond next weekend, that's about the only thing I think that we can gather at minute, potential for some snow for some if the positioning is going to be favourable, at least we may be lining ourselves up for something more wintery than mild conditions which have took over in recent weeks.

[ChartViewer]

CMA 240...Heights building to greenland!!! ....took 5 hours

[bobbydog]

Maybe its getting late but im assuming you are kidding right?

i hope i'm only half kidding......

[Liam J]

WOW @ the 18z! Certainly doesn't get much better than that if it's exceptional cold & snow you desire, unbelievable run from that respect. Just one of many solutions so try to stay grounded and use caution until we have some sort of inter-model agreement (soon hopefully)

Might just say a prayer before bedtime that we all wake up to a full house with all models backing tonights 18z haha...... Dream on!

[TEITS]

Wow, minus the mild sector in the south at the end you couldn't paint a better run! I see GP is online, what's your thoughts? Is this possible or is it too much too soon? Bad news is... I've just seen the front page of tomorrow's daily express and they have jinxed it!

I see a few people on the S coast have moaned about this run.

Although futile talking about this but for those in the S it would only take a slight shift S and they would join in the fun and games. Besides this for the S coast and especially SW England it is only this kind of set up being shown that can bring widespread blizzards for them. When you look at some of the classic winters you would sometimes see milder temps reaching the far S/SW but thats to be expected when you live in this location.

Edited January 7, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[MR EXTREMES]

For any newcomers here or members who don't understand the models then what the 18Z is showing is really the holy grail of cold winter synoptics and to be honest it cannot get any better.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2881.png

and to any new comers please do not for one minute even think this will happen because its about a 5% chance maximum chance of this well well out in fi but looks pretty.

[Davey80]

Seems the whole of the northern hemisphere is going to be obliterated with severe cold from some of these charts!

[Nick F]

Height rises over Greenland and Iceland backed by the CPC prognostic outlook and also ECM ens H500 anomalies (which I've lost the link for) - so it could very well get even more interesting than the initial teaser this weekend.

Which leaves us with the 12z ECM operational - which by all accounts looks rather on the mild side for the 14th - 17th for London:

http://www.weatherca...e-forecast.html

Edited January 7, 2013 by Nick F

[AWD]

London ens;

As already known, the EC Op a milder outlier in FI.

Not as bad as what I was thinking actually. Not as good as previous ones, but still a decent spread of colder members evident.

[bobbydog]

and to any new comers please do not for one minute even think this will happen because its about a 5% chance maximum chance of this well well out in fi but looks pretty.

agreed. this run is a mild outlier........

[Dexter29]

Save those eye candy FI charts on this evening 18z

They will be gone tomorrow!

Beautiful to look at but it's 10+ days away, the models don't even know what to do this weekend yet.

Hilarious some are debating the mild uppers on the south coast for a chart that's 12 days away!

Edited January 7, 2013 by Dexter29

[TEITS]

and to any new comers please do not for one minute even think this will happen because its about a 5% chance maximum chance of this well well out in fi but looks pretty.

How do you come to the 5% conclusion?

The 18Z is extreme but im not ruling out mild W,lys or bitter E,lys in the medium range. The sensible approach to the model output is to be cautious of whatever its showing but at the moment cold or more likely than mild. Your comment of 5% makes no meteorological sense whatsoever.

[John Cox]

I can understand the euphoria tonight,...I can understand the caution.... especially from our more experienced members..... We have been badly bitten so often by these synoptics before and let down with a bang...... but

There is something different this time.... SSW??...... Will this be the key to a memorable winter.... I have a lot of patience and hopefully it will pay off.

If it goes the shape of the pear (which i think is unlikely), 60/40 is my guess of success, then i get a lot of pleasure from these sites:

http://www.webbkamer...nea_centrum.php

http://www.webbkamer...jala_2_live.php

http://www.webbkamer...olgsjovagen.php

[Dampdorset82]

I see a few people on the S coast have moaned about this run.

Although futile talking about this but for those in the S it would only take a slight shift S and they would join in the fun and games. Besides this for the S coast and especially SW England it is only this kind of set up being shown that can bring widespread blizzards for them. When you look at some of the classic winters you would sometimes see milder temps reaching the far S/SW but thats to be expected when you live in this location.

I understand your point......My comment was regarding the output being shown now and not what I want it to do (being push 90 miles south) of course we would expect milder conditions down south but with such small surface area in the UK and sea temps not to different from the North we miss out constantly....this isnt a moan its a fact

Im not fussed either way mild or cold just not freezing rain lol

[-uksnow-]

Nice to see the control backing the op @ 144

Less is made of the AH aswell, this is a good thing, i think?

[bryan629]

agreed. this run is a mild outlier........

oh!! darn it and i was soo wondering why i saw around 250 geese flying due west yesterdayand at high altitude , only knew they were there because of the racket they make....what could they have been migrating away from ?

[gaia rules]

for oxford north, selfishly I would just see sleety rain. So although im happy for the folks up north not to pleased for us down south.

I live just south of Oxford and on 19 20 21 Jan the netweather forecast is for a dewpoint of -1.4 winds of 53mph and 33cm snow.....all dreams of course...but nice ones!