Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[ChartViewer]

Lovely end of high res...serious eye candy....nice to see future runs...not backing ECM at 192 by long shot!!!

wow

Edited January 7, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Weathizard]

Vortex at 192- DEAD and buried. Its daughters still live on though!!

Edited January 7, 2013 by Weathizard

[ITSY]

And let it begin.

[nick sussex]

For once the shortwave actually helped us out, not often that happens.

Azores high can now start to re-establish a link with Greenland.

At this point you don't want that to happen, you want the ridging to extend south from the north and energy to cut east under that.

The Azores high at this point is nothing but a complete pain.

[Nick F]

Thankfully, up to t+180 anyway, the UK remains on the cold eastern side of the jet (just) - which drops SSE from Greenland down to Iberia.

In fact, not only do we see cold air advect from the east, we also see colder air advecting down from the NW!

[TEITS]

It's fine at T180 as the trough off the Seaboard has been held at bay, but if this where we are headed in the T96-156 range, then it's squeeky bum time because that low so could easily bust through whilst the core height anomaly is with the Azores High.

WOW!

Hope you're right Ian when you said the GFS is better at modelling over Greenland than the ECM.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010718/gfsnh-0-240.png?18

Another run, another GFS pidgeon step to a GH.....

Im sure everyone is hoping we get close to anything like this in the end...

A modicum of consistency from the GFS...

S

[bluearmy]

low res switch manages to nuke the iberian ridge and the greeny becomes properly cut off. could be some decent ens without all that shortwave complication in high res.

[Ian Brown]

WOW!

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-240.png?18

Hope you're right Ian when you said the GFS is better at modelling over Greenland than the ECM.

I hope so Dave, I've always believed the GFS to be better handling that area and where the Eastern Seaboard LPs go.

[Jason H]

I do like the GFS interpretation at 192, certainly better than ECM. A very circuitous route to get there though. As many have mentioned before me, all options still on the table.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thankfully, up to t+180 anyway, the UK remains on the cold eastern side of the jet (just) - which drops SSE from Greenland down to Iberia.

In fact, not only do we see cold air advect from the east, we also see colder air advecting down from the NW!

I've noticed that too on a few of the runs where the Icelandic troughing sticks around. Providing we don't get the Atlantic low phasing with the Icelandic low (based on the output today) then we always manage to get height rises to the north and either a Greenland or an Iceland-Scandi ridge.

[Ian Brown]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-240.png?18

Another run, another GFS pidgeon step to a GH.....

Im sure everyone is hoping we get close to anything like this in the end...

A modicum of consistency from the GFS...

S

It was watching thru the gaps between the fingers for many though mate at around T150 !

[weather_it_will]

Some has left the freezer door open....Cracking easterly flow in FI @ T240+

[Weathizard]

Bloody hell, rubbish I know but copius amounts of snow for the North at 288, more rain down here though I'd imagine! All in jest of course as it probably wont happen

[Ali1977]

Massive snowfall down south, shame it will change by then, and prob by next run

[Jason M]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010718/gfsnh-0-240.png?18

Another run, another GFS pidgeon step to a GH.....

Im sure everyone is hoping we get close to anything like this in the end...

A modicum of consistency from the GFS...

S

Support was present in the ensemble suite from the last run. It's been subtle but increasing numbers of ensembles have been popping up with this solution. I still think the scandi high this weekend is being a little underplayed at this stage. You and I will have to rely on wintry showers as I'd be surprised if come the weekend the fronts make it over to the east.

Jason

[Cloud 10]

Can we keep this run going beyond +384 please.

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=288&mode=0&carte=1

Anyone for blizzards all day long

[bluearmy]

if we can get a cut off greeny block then energy coming off the eastern seaboard becomes our friend by reinforcing the undercut. the -AO brings deep cold clockwise whilst the atlantic brings the moisture in from the west !

[tight isobar]

Not in the reliable i grant, but there you have it 18z, get us back on track hints, will im sure v, soon turn more in the way of firming, espec, regarding Greenland. See you tomorow, good evening.

[ITSY]

Not an implausible run but probably an extreme one in the ens.

48 hours of persistent heavy snow for EA, the Midlands, London etc...imagine the chaos.

Anyway, back to reality, one run and one possibility. Back in an hour for ens. Sooner or later consistency wouldn't go a miss.

[TEITS]

For any newcomers here or members who don't understand the models then what the 18Z is showing is really the holy grail of cold winter synoptics and to be honest it cannot get any better.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.png

[Bristawl Si]

17th onwards was the time period progged, a few days ago, to be the most interesting - so in that respect the models generally are showing some consistency.

[SMU]

I agree with Ian- the GFS always models a GH better than the ECM-

The initial cold looks still to be a bit mute, but possibly some snow-

round 2 looks to be developing nicely-

S

[chionomaniac]

One could look at this chart and comment +5ºC 850's over Cornwall.

But that doesn't tell the whole story does it?

Bring it on!