Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

[johnholmes]

Updated anomaly charts...look excellent

post 144 they really are the way to see how the upper air is going to develop not might develop but I waste my breath

the detail will come from the synoptic models that will follow the anomaly charts-from T+144 down and the models will eventually converge but don't hold your breath!

[karlos1983]

Massive snowfall down south, shame it will change by then, and prob by next run

I would quite happily accept no snow for a decade if that verified.... Sigh

[minus 9]

Reverse zonality at its best 240 gfs18z. if only it would come off. Any thing is possible.

[ITSY]

I would quite happily accept no snow for a decade if that verified.... Sigh

Be careful!

[cold snap]

If the 18z occurred you would have to call out the army why?

To get you out of your house , serious snowfall here I mean serious

18z may go down as all time classic run , bookmark it

More importantly not like the ECM at any stage

[Ice Day]

Lovely end of high res...serious eye candy....nice to see future runs...not backing ECM at 192 by long shot!!!

Shouldn't you be keeping an eye of the last few frames of the Chinese model????

Anyhoo, at 300hrs a countrywide snow event! The pub run's gone a bit mental tonight!

[john mac]

I would quite happily accept no snow for a decade if that verified.... Sigh

You'd want it even more after that lol

[chris55]

In all my 30 years on the earth I have never experienced a true Blizzard, If the 18z was to verify that would change!! Just once I would love to experience such conditions.

[ChartViewer]

post 144 they really are the way to see how the upper air is going to develop not might develop but I waste my breath

the detail will come from the synoptic models that will follow the anomaly charts-from T+144 down and the models will eventually converge but don't hold your breath!

You dont waste your breath John believe me...I pointed some towards your excellent post over in In depth re 10-15 day forecast...very informative and easy to follow pdf....thanks again.

[Weathizard]

Saved some of these charts as they are truly stunning! 228+ onwards is stunning for everywhere but the south coast but 100 miles either way would change it.

HOWEVER, its one run, lets not get too carried away here, incredible sypnotics but we probably won't see charts this good again all winter! Who knows though, anything could happen, will be interesting to be a weather fanatic for the next few weeks!

[on the coast]

One could look at this chart and comment +5ºC 850's over Cornwall.

But that doesn't tell the whole story does it?

Bring it on!

Certainly looking like a certain famous year. Mmnnn.......

[ChartViewer]

Shouldn't you be keeping an eye of the last few frames of the Chinese model????

Anyhoo, at 300hrs a countrywide snow event! The pub run's gone a bit mental tonight!

Of course i am ...out to T216 at moment.....4 hours 47 mnutes and counting

[TEITS]

post 144 they really are the way to see how the upper air is going to develop not might develop but I waste my breath

the detail will come from the synoptic models that will follow the anomaly charts-from T+144 down and the models will eventually converge but don't hold your breath!

Indeed John because following these operationals will drive you insane at the moment.

Having said this a chart like this below must take you back a few years mate.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.png

Classic winter charts from the famous winters in the past!

[Jayces]

One comment I have seen time and time again about the GFS in winter is how it defaults to mild zonal in low res but that doesn't seem to be happening these last few runs which can only be a good thing right?

[karlos1983]

Q the Daily Express no doubt,

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, looking at low res gfs 18z from a NH perspective, thats what one might expect to see once the effects of the SSW engages the trop.

[Dampdorset82]

For any newcomers here or members who don't understand the models then what the 18Z is showing is really the holy grail of cold winter synoptics and to be honest it cannot get any better.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2881.png

for oxford north, selfishly I would just see sleety rain. So although im happy for the folks up north not to pleased for us down south.

[Schmalex]

Important question, folks. Back in December, I had a £5 bet with my Rayburn service guy about when it'll first snow in North Hampshire. I reckon 18 Jan, he's gone for 5th Feb. There are some damned clever people in here, so looking at the models, am I about to fleece him or lose my shirt?!

[Southender]

If anything the recent runs we have seen highlight the need for patience. Its not this weekend we need to concentrate on, but the following one when the fun "could" really begin...

[Froze were the Days]

I really don't know what to think of at the moment in relation to some of these outputs...I feel totally drained. As mentioned very tight margins whether we get a cold spell next week or a route to mild stuff.

[mountain shadow]

Caution people, caution..

:-)

[ITSY]

Of course i am ...out to T216 at moment.....4 hours 47 mnutes and counting

haha, outrageously funny.

[johnholmes]

You dont waste your breath John believe me...I pointed some towards your excellent post over in In depth re 10-15 day forecast...very informative and easy to follow pdf....thanks again.

very welcome CV, I find this thread way beyond me-too old so I'll drop the odd comment in and a link when appropriate-enjoy the stampede!

I really don't know what to think of at the moment in relation to some of these outputs...I feel totally drained. As mentioned very tight margins whether we get a cold spell next week or a route to mild stuff.

there is less chance of mild stuff as we progress through the weekend and beyond than me winning the lottery and I don't do it!

[tvh3382]

Just wanted to stress an important (indeed critical, for this thread) bit of guidance from our medium range folk at Exeter: Do NOT confuse current outlook for a return to the cooler conditions next few days with SSW effect. The latter has NOT yet shown it's hand in any NWP output in any reliable sense. They continue to expect this next key phase - with hugely uncertain outcome - to become a feature appearing from around 10d onwards, and NOT in the more near-term medium range. Current set-up into weekend / early next week etc is not related to SSW in their estimation - just bob-standard winter fare.

And if the 18z does not include any SSW info just image what it could be like if it did. Now where is my snow shovel.....

[seabreeze86]

mmmmm that will do GFS it just doesent get any better that that.

I wonder if the next thread will be named (after that 18z gfs) or even (after that pub run).

Actually i hope not because we all no what transpired after the famous ECM run in December.

Edited January 7, 2013 by seabreeze86