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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

And now GFS does what it does best and revert to zonal when it doesn't know what's going on. I'm pretty sure that will be one of the milder ensembles at t144 onwards.

Not on surface temp charts it won't. It's very cold through to the end of hi res and a bit beyond though that's little comfort.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

GEM still looking very good:

gemnh-0-102.png?00

Tough call this one, 'more runs needed' I suppose, yet again!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

GEM still looking very good:

gemnh-0-102.png?00

Tough call this one, 'more runs needed' I suppose, yet again!

Still in with a shout if ECM follows its 12z run and the GFS ensembles look prettier.

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chiller Newbie

chiller

Posted
  • Location: North Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Decent cold spells and snow
  • Location: North Kent
Posted

Russia stole our Greenland HP...

npsh500.png

Poor set up compared to what was showing last run. Back to the SW'lys, jet pulled north, PV chunk around Greenland, de ja vu.

Was this winter doomed from the start? I wonder what charts we'll be looking at come evening time?!

But to be fair that's 13 days away and a lifetime in modelling...

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Still in with a shout if ECM follows its 12z run and the GFS ensembles look prettier.

Absolutely, far from over this, we're merely back to where we were 24-48 hours ago, with a range of different solutions on the table.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

But to be fair that's 13 days away and a lifetime in modelling...

The crunch time which decides our fate is a lot closer...maybe day 5. What happens at this point will dictate what we get 7-10 days down the line. If the Atlantic gets back in you can write at least a week off as the vortex is invited to pull back over Greenland and we run the possibility of being stuck in a rut again. It's THAT black and white with this scenario I'm afraid. Miss the boat and we're scuppered.

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essexweather Enthusiast

essexweather

Posted
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

To be fair there were 8 members (40%) that had this scenario on the 18Z (including the control) - It's no big surprise and no doubt the next run will show us a colder scenario.

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chiller Newbie

chiller

Posted
  • Location: North Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Decent cold spells and snow
  • Location: North Kent
Posted

Cold uppers never too far away throughout the run over our shores. Have to say though I've never been that convinced this cold spell is going to be anything other than a few days of cold before the inevitable Atlantic pushes through I say that not with any huge insight just a gut feeling. Hope i'm proved wrong...

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

BANZAI!

gemnh-0-180.png?00

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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted

h500slp.png

h500slp.png

within the reliable timeframe (96 hours) we have an upgrade to the easterly with colder uppers, and a more extensive cold spell with cold air reaching every corner of the British Isles.

A disappointing downgrade later in the run, one which does have has some support from the models. This is a potential cause for concern, however some very exciting weather to be had in the next week and this needs focusing on more IMO.

The GFS defaults in this run. The Atlantic breakdown while plausible is too progressive on this run IMO. The GFS is notorious for bringing in the Atlantic too quickly in these set-ups.Furthermore in FI it reforms the Polar Vortex in particular which really is quite farcilce given the current stratospheric prospects.

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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted

NOGAPS not ideal now either. GFS ensembles going the wrong way. I am tempted to say we have seen this before but I will give the ECM a chance. GEM/UKMO fairly good.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Big difference in the very early stages of the GFS is the cyclogenesis of the shortwave, which is deeper and further north than on all previous model runs (other than yesterday's ECM 0Z) at +48:

gfsnh-0-48.png?0

This hinders the WAA and therefore scuppers the proper split flow over Greenland.

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted

So many ideas flying around the models around the 120h-180h period. No idea what will happen.

The prospects for Wintry weather between Saturday and Tuesday look good esp. Come on bring me a dumping!

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

Woke up had a quick look, its what we feared yesterday! Ah well! Hope ECM doesn't follow or its game over after the Weekend and hope ENS improve because last nights pointed at something like this.

Big changes early on, this must change and soon.

Edited by Weathizard
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted

NOGAPS not ideal now either. GFS ensembles going the wrong way. I am tempted to say we have seen this before but I will give the ECM a chance. GEM/UKMO fairly good.

GFS 00z ens Come out around 6 right?
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

GFS 00z ens Come out around 6 right?

On their way out now mate. Slightly better ensemble mean at 120, though the control still fluffs its lines at the crucial moment.

Edited by CreweCold
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Iceni Community Regular

Iceni

Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
Posted

This is what Fergie must have been referring to earlier. But hey… after 3 consecutive epic runs and finally cross-model agreement achieved last night, how could it have got any better? We shall see. Fergie also stressed the strat wouldn't be affecting us yet anyway.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Ironically the GFS short ensembles are going to look much better than the 18Z or 12Z ones!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

GFS ensembles do turn out much colder then 18z ensembles funnily enough by a good 4 or 5c.

Yeah better and the control is one of the milder options as is the Op regarding 850's (or will be in low res)- strange times.

Edited by Mucka
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

There's a good 7 or 8 ensemble members that go along with some kind of heights around Greenland, compared to the 18z ensembles when there was 2 or 3.

Edited by CreweCold
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Control attempts to redeem itself in FI fool.gif

gensnh-0-1-288.png?0

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

The most confusing episode of winter continues so far, next few runs are absolutely crucial. Aften the ECM ens last night its difficult to see how it can back track but I'm prepared for it doing so, least we still got our giant straw clutch the GEM. Can't see the UKMO? What's it like?

Edited by Weathizard
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

The most confusing episode of winter continues so far, next few runs are absolutely crucial. Aften the ECM ens last night its difficult to see how it can back track but I'm prepared for it doing so, least we still got our giant straw clutch the GEM. Can't see the UKMO? What's it like?

Not the prettiest but it gets there in the end. Entirely possible that the GFS is just a wobble but also could start a trend away from prolonged cold.

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