Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[TAFKAP]

Lol at the GFS ops. After being faultless it suddenly throws out a stinker but it unlikely to be right now. ECM is stonking.

Stinker? I think you must have been looking at a different run.

[snow drift]

I think it is best not to look too far ahead - past this weekend - or at least be prepared to see a variety of options of what could be on offer and not be too concerned. Look at the GFS control for example- it goes mild very quick before producing a monster at the end.

Unfair question I guess but which option moving into next week would you see as most likely? Won't hold you to it clearly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Methuselah]

Morning all, what is the snow risk for Kent this weekend? Roughly? As getting a train Saturday evening from a football match and we all know how bad southeastern are when it snows!

Thanks!!

Here you go, Ben:

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

Stinker? I think you must have been looking at a different run.

I don't think GFS 00z Ops was particularly great looking at it, but the volatility between the Ops and GEFS ensembles (and flip-flopping between them) gives less credibilty to them overall. The ECM meanwhile appears to be firming up towards something very special...

[Paul Ashford]

Morning all, what is the snow risk for Kent this weekend? Roughly? As getting a train Saturday evening from a football match and we all know how bad southeastern are when it snows!

Thanks!!

Ben,

Ask this question in the SE regional thread, your more likely to get a reply and further updates.

[Weathizard]

I know GFS precip charts are not exactly reliable but from 72-96 snow is highly possible even in the far south. And if its heavy enough to lay, after the heavy rain, could cause cause with cold rain turning to ice! Same thing happened in DEC 2009 here. Ignoring 'FI' the models are looking good even within 5 days, some of us would do well to remember that. (And yes I am talking about myself here as well, get so obsessed with these stonking charts we forget we are 3 and a bit days from a possible countrywide snow event!

[IDO]

The main thing is that we have nailed the reliable time frame. Cold is coming and we will have 3/4 days of snow potential at least. The last few days for me has been to get the initial cold rather than it's delay again. The ECM as long as it halts it's shift east is showing the potential synoptics GFS has been showing in FI for a few runs. However we probably need another 36/48 hours before we are more confident of Tuesday onwards.

The Nuuk (Greenland) ensembles:

The colder op run compared to many milder runs hints that this run is an outlier from early next week; the warmer the 850s the more blocking. So I would not have too many hang ups on this one run, especially with the UK ensembles trending colder from yesterday:

0z: Yesterday's 18z:

If we keep that trend then FI will start to look very cold.

[SMU]

A couple of points to note this morning-

An exceptional ECM once again topped up by the GEM & similar from the UKMO- just a tad to far east perhaps-

Its just the GFS that thrown a wobbler.

The ECM is exceptional not for its outstanding cold- although its sufficient- but for its snow potential around the UK day on day on day- Obviously the E & SE do fair well, however the distribution of fronts attacking come from all angles so everyone should be happy with the run-

Also If he hasnt already posted there may well be a stronger signal from the MOGREPS ens this morning with respect to the t72-96 window for snow across the central southern belt-

The heights are lower on the 00z as well as the 850s creeping down to -6 which is a couple of degrees lower than progged yesterday-

so a wider swathe may see snow cover-

All in all with the exception of the GFS a great overnight suite & lots to be happy about...-

We just need another solid set @ 12z today with the continued ridging to GH-

*** remember a full blow GH is not needed just a bank of heigher pressre ( sausage high) whatever you want to call it- enough to skew the jet-

cheers

S

Edited January 9, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Paul]

Didn't expect it to be quite so busy at this time of the morning! I've got to quickly restart our database server in a second - it'll mean a downtime of no more than 1 minute. Apologies for this, but it's essential.

We'll also be adding a server or two to the forum setup during today, which should keep things stable during the busiest times.

[MR EXTREMES]

right morning everyone still uncertain in the model world but certain for cold and snow.

lets have a look at the 0z charts at on all main models.

by the way ukmo will certainly be using the s word for atleast shorter term

first ukmo at t144hrs

then the gfs at t144hrs

.

the the ecm at t144

then the gem at t144

there all looking good within t96 its looking cold snowy and exciting one thing is that none have been able to pin down beyond t144 or futher to be honest as mods have suggested forget beyond t96 because each has there own idear but the likely evolution is ridge between greenland and scandi.

and i must stress from seeing the models that the uk wont be blazing mild by no means and no real alantic onslaught which is a growing trend.

so enjoy the realiable and watch by friday were have a much better idear of the midterm outlook because the event will be happening.

excellent ecm all the way to the end and gfs towards then end does warm up a bit but u can see the reload of a north northeast blast already setting up.

i think its going to be a long road back to anything remotely above average in terms of temps.

and i really didnt think that the ecm could even get close to an unpgrade this morning i was blown away incredible.

[TEITS]

Another morning of some stunning output. Whatever happens beyond +144 there can be no doubts that this weekend has significantly upgraded if you compare to the output a few days ago. A risk of snow on Saturday followed by snow showers into the E on Sunday. What happens beyond is very tricky. If you look at the UKMO/ECM/GEM combined with what the GFS was showing yesterday then a LP will sink SE during Monday bringing another risk of snow. At this stage I feel W parts are probably most at risk but the track of the LP is undecided. If the models are correct as this LP sinks S we see strong E,lys develop bringing frequent snow showers.

Although its probably pointless going much into next week but again using all of the output over the past 24hrs a continuation of the cold E,lys looks likely with possible heavy snowfalls as LP tracks to the S of the UK during the latter part of next week. Into the following weekend and it looks as though it will remain cold but winds could veer more N/NE,ly as blocking migrates over to Greenland.

[Isolated Frost]

12zs will be interesting to gauge whether cross-model agreement can come back.

EC absolute monster again. Heavy snow shrs for much of the British Isles in an unstable E, then NW, then E, then NE flow. Yum.

GFS not as good, and UKMO the halfway house. Still superb synoptics in the RELIABLE on them all.

[Ian Brown]

Yes the GFS has thrown something a bit different in, and if we remember yesterday Ian F said that the METO view was that battleground scenarios between the Atlantic and the cold air were what they anticpated for next week. That assessment may have changed from the subsequent 12z and now 0z runs, but let's wait and see.

[Harsh Climate]

Looked at the gfs this morning and thought omg could this be one of the biggest down grades ever! Then looked at the esembles and ECM and breathed a huge sigh of relief

Edited January 9, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Snowday]

I've asked this question in the regional thread, but think its probably more linked with this one!

I have checked the netweather forecast for my area and it shows precipitation of some kind for all of Saturday, but the MetOffice has absolutely nothing shown - why the discrepency?

[Isolated Frost]

Looked at the gfs this morning and thought omg could this be one of the biggest down grades ever! Then looked at the esembles and ECM and breathed a huge sigh of relief

112 hours (66 to 178) of constant sub -5c uppers for the east of England and Scotland, -10c incursions common at d5, -5c covers the nation quite a bit. Not the biggest downgrade ever. A downgrade yes, but did you expect anything else after yesterdays output!!

[johnholmes]

I've asked this question in the regional thread, but think its probably more linked with this one!

I have checked the netweather forecast for my area and it shows precipitation of some kind for all of Saturday, but the MetOffice has absolutely nothing shown - why the discrepency?

two different models and too far ahead for correct prediction of precipitation

[Isolated Frost]

I've asked this question in the regional thread, but think its probably more linked with this one!

I have checked the netweather forecast for my area and it shows precipitation of some kind for all of Saturday, but the MetOffice has absolutely nothing shown - why the discrepency?

AFAIK, the netweather forecasts are based on the latest GFS run, whilst the MO, whilst computer generated, take in a gauge of all the NWP. I wouldn't worry about precip values yet, especially when Saturday is just the start.

edit: JH beat me to it

Edited January 9, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[Snowday]

Cheers both!

[Dexter29]

A little downhearted that the 00z hasn't followed on from yesterday's outstanding models.

The fact the ECM is one of the snowiest runs I have seen for the UK makes up for the poorer GFS this morning.

We need the 12z to follow ECM today.

Carol kirkwood on breakfast just mentioned this weekend. No mention of snow Saturday. She did say

" eastern coastal counties snow showers on Sunday, not amounting to much and not enough to build a snowman"

Rather reserved don't you think? Or a good call.

[Froze were the Days]

What are the GFS ensembles showing on that 0z run?

[Frosty.]

A mega stunning Ecm 00z for cold, from as early as saturday and then continuing to intensify throughout next week with snow and severe frosts for all parts of the uk, comparing the ecm 00z today with yesterday's 00z shows a massive upgrade for cold, some parts of the uk could be looking at large snowfalls next week and beyond..snowbound uk has a nice ring to it.

If ever there was an example of a perfect sustained Northerly, the Ecm 00z shows it, synoptically superb

[Spurry]

Looked at the gfs this morning and thought omg could this be one of the biggest down grades ever! Then looked at the esembles and ECM and breathed a huge sigh of relief

Only just saw the GFS 00z, i'm at work so can't really read all the posts about it , but is the general consesus that it was an 'outlier'/thrown a wobbler etc?..i sincerley hope so , as it was a shock to see the Atlantic in control next week after such good runs yesterday and this mornings ECM.

[Barry12]

A little downhearted that the 00z hasn't followed on from yesterday's outstanding models.

The fact the ECM is one of the snowiest runs I have seen for the UK makes up for the poorer GFS this morning.

We need the 12z to follow ECM today.

Carol kirkwood on breakfast just mentioned this weekend. No mention of snow Saturday. She did say

" eastern coastal counties snow showers on Sunday, not amounting to much and not enough to build a snowman"

Rather reserved don't you think? Or a good call.

I'm sure if the models carry on the cold snowy theme then tonight/tomorrow they will change there forecasts to reflect this.

[MR EXTREMES]

Yes the GFS has thrown something a bit different in, and if we remember yesterday Ian F said that the METO view was that battleground scenarios between the Atlantic and the cold air were what they anticpated for next week. That assessment may have changed from the subsequent 12z and now 0z runs, but let's wait and see.

as is see it battle ground no undercuts yes the se tracking low heights seems to be favoured by all models into the realiable timeframe theres also been a strong trend to get heights up and around greenland and iceland area which is also conductive of se tracking jet this was a key feature in 09/10 and i can see this possibly trending better than that winter due to the favoured teleconnections.

once cold has set in over the uk its a bugger to breakdown more so in the kind of setup we been seeing over the last few days.

incredible ecm gfs just a wobble but then returns back to bringing in another cold surge from the northeast but any kind of settled period will have cold surface temps and will be hard to shift.

i dont want to be over confident but the alantic is getting its ass kicked.