Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[Lampostwatcher]

Oh we'll it was fun while it lasted

Poor GFS no GH

[SMU]

Lousy 06z but then when was the 06z any good...

A long wait for the 12's tonight -

S

[Snowly does it]

South westerlies by Tuesday morning. Big backtrack but was always an option on the ensembles. Be worth looking at the ensembles again to see if the trend for many of them is away from what we want to see

[iowpompeylee]

Even with the introduction of the SSW.the same old outcome...just hoping the other models can raise our spirits south of london

[lord stratus]

Still time for low to move further north hopefully, like 18th Dec 2010, moved further north than forecast, I joined in with the snow

No, it'll be south correction.

[Dexter29]

Ouch, poor 06Z GFS coming up.

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be a carbon copy of what happened last month?

In ECM we trust.

I wouldn't, this is reminding me way to much of December 2012.

On this basis and the fact it just seems impossible to obtain decent cold in this country, ECM will start to backtrack towards the GFS.

Like I say no evidence just historical.

[Bobby]

Looks like the Atlantic freight-train is gearing up on this run, just like early December. However we have all time record uncertainty so any OP run should be taken with several pinches of salt, including the cold ones.

[tight isobar]

Yes not good in regards to shortwave scatter, but by no means a done deal....await 12z..

[bradymk]

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-138.png?6

Lousy 06z but then when was the 06z any good...

A long wait for the 12's tonight -

S

Yes the shortwave by Iceland i think is our problem here. However, no other model currenly supports this shortwave so until it shows on the other models, the GFS may be wrong atm. As you say Steve, long wait for 12z and hopefully the ECM and UKMO won't show this shortwave in their 12z outputs. If the GFS has this shortwave wrong, then the whole output will be wrong as it will affect the whole pattern

Edited January 9, 2013 by bradythemole

[Radiating Dendrite]

Shortwaves - should we be surprised?

[cold snap]

gfs now showing what ecm was showing the other day.

Shortwaves showing there hand now and stoping a block from forming.then it topples now we have a south westerly

[polarlow2]

I asked this yesterday but no-one answered: I thought the general idea was an initial cold spell, ie the weekend, followed by an Atlantic-driven spell, followed by a re-establishment of cold, is that not what Ian F suggested? So no real panic if a temporary milder spell surely?

Also the ridiculous over-reaction to every single run by some people really makes it hard for others to learn.

Edited January 9, 2013 by polarlow2

[Methuselah]

Can you lot go and moan in the moaning thread, please?

[Southender]

No point looking any further. Awful run unfortunately. PV powering up again and Shortwaves all over the place. Hopefully an outlier.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Shrimper

[nick sussex]

Good grief even I didn't expect something this dismal from the GFS 06hrs run.

The thing I don't like with all this constant chopping and changing is that as you get to within 144hrs theres less room for changes so when the final chop comes we'd better hope its for cold and snow and not the underwhelming picture painted by the GFS.

[cold snap]

gfs now showing what ecm was showing the other day.

Shortwaves showing there hand now and stoping a block from forming.then it topples now we have a south westerly

[ITSY]

now to see if the op is a mild outlier. SWlies galore by +150.

we've seen this before so don't be too disheartened if others follow suit. I'd give it another day before consistency will emerge, either way

[Frosty.]

Not sure why you are clapping and getting excited at such a long distance?

I'm clapping it because it looks like we are going to have our first prolonged very cold spell with snow

The Ecm 00z is stunning for a cold outlook from the weekend onwards

[pyrotech]

Thanks Ian. What I don't understand though is if there going with the ECM then why would there only be snow from birmingham northwards, i'm looking at the ECM 850s temp for saturday and the 850 temps further south are the same as birmingham?

Looking at the Meto surface pressure charts and ECM the difference is the thickness, 528 Dam runs Very top of NE Wales to Norfolk diagonally just about clipping Birmingham so if data is correct that must be the reason. Alot can change in 3 days thou.

Plus im guessing thats the difference they see, it seems the most obvious one to me.

[Rocheydub]

The GEFS control yesterday at 12z showed a similar outcome. This is what I feared and what I was ridiculed for.

My point then, and is still the same now, is this is far from sorted! It will more than likely go down to the wire (sorry for the parlance), but I would expect a firm outcome by the 12z ECM and GFS today. Who know, maybe this run will be an outlier in the GEFS now!

[Backtrack]

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-138.png?6

Lousy 06z but then when was the 06z any good...

A long wait for the 12's tonight -

S

I do have a lot of respect for your posts Steve, but honestly I really don't get this 6Z isn't as good as the 12Z thing, I know the 12Z gets slightly more data fed into it from weather balloons or something but if the 06Z was that useless, they wouldn't run it.

Starting to see consistency now for mild/average mid-term, can't see the 12Z doing much apart from giving false hope if a stella run is delivered.

[weather eater]

Not a great 06z but remember it was only two days ago that this weekend was being written off and we had no chance of snow, the 72hr to 120hr period is always tricky for us as small changes make a big difference, however this can change as we have seen over the last couple of days.

[UV-RAY]

Looking like a very short cold snap on the 06z, I sense we will see further downgrades in the short/medium term as the day goes on. Could the curse of December come back to haunt us in January.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[karlos1983]

Come on guys, we cant take one run and say it is going to happen, whether it shows raging Easterlies or South Westerlies, if it shows again on the 12z's then granted we need to worry, or worse cross model agreement, but it is just one run, we've seen ,more flips than the gymnastics at the Olympics this week, so lets just see would be my urge.

[Dampdorset82]

The 06z is zonal zonal zonal from Monday onwards!