Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[Dexter29]

Thanks Ian. What I don't understand though is if there going with the ECM then why would there only be snow from birmingham northwards, i'm looking at the ECM 850s temp for saturday and the 850 temps further south are the same as birmingham?

Exactly my thoughts. Home Counties north of London would also have snow according to ECM.

[Bobby]

GFS keeps nudging Saturday's snow S, the ECM has it further S also. I think someone in the central/southern areas is going to get a big dumping of snow on Saturday, just where we'll soon see.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Bobby

[Southender]

Slightly better uppers further SW, which bring more Southern areas into play for some snow on Sat.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Shrimper

[Dexter29]

Snow from London north on 06z Saturday

Edited January 9, 2013 by Dexter29

[Shunter]

Exactly my thoughts. Home Counties north of London would also have snow according to ECM.

Yes and with an Easterly wind component and higher intensity I'm sure conditions could be more favourable further south than what Ian has stated.

[latitude]

This toppling faster than the 0z. A crapper run again? (im asking the question, not saying it is worse than the 0z)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still time for low to move further north hopefully, like 18th Dec 2010, moved further north than forecast, I joined in with the snow

[Southender]

More Shortwave drama around S.Greenland/Iceland again.

[Paul]

took me to the south east forum, where are the charts please?

You can view the snow risk charts here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

[Dexter29]

Shortwave drama YET AGAIN south Greenland, Iceland.

Edit... Shrimper beat me to it..

Edited January 9, 2013 by Dexter29

[latitude]

This toppling faster than the 0z. A crapper run again? (im asking the question, not saying it is worse than the 0z)

-5 850 struggling to reach Ireland on Sunday. Looks like a toppler?

[Bobby]

Looks like this is going to be another toppler, flatter than the 00z.

[Summer Sun]

took me to the south east forum, where are the charts please?

click this link http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess= then on the drop down bar next to select chart type click UK precipitation type then click Animate

Note 06z is running now so it will be best to run them through in around 45 minutes

Edited January 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[bradymk]

Time to go, but this looks like following the 00z GFS op. If your still around Ian, what is UKMO opinion on the GFS this morning? Have they considered it or are they just leaning towards ECM? Thanks.

[Dexter29]

This is going to be worse than the 00z

Very much déjà-vu of December 2012... ECM eventually followed GFS too.

[Southender]

Not a good run so far. Shortwave spoilers over Greenie/Iceland again scuppering WAA.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Shrimper

[Backtrack]

Ouch, poor 06Z GFS coming up.

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be a carbon copy of what happened last month?

In ECM we trust.

[beng]

Yes and with an Easterly wind component and higher intensity I'm sure conditions could be more favourable further south than what Ian has stated.

The easterly wind direction might be key for the SE actually as the GFS currently models the shortest possible sea track down there. Basically even though the uppers are a little higher there (than the Midlands) - it may still be enough with the cold surface undercut off the continent. I think it's knife edge for my back yard (based off latest GFS) - glad I don't have to try and forecast it!

[latitude]

Ouch, poor 06Z GFS coming up.

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be a carbon copy of what happened last month?

In ECM we trust.

Why trust the ECM? It did a massive backtrack last night.........wonder whats instore later? This still isnt sorted in the short range if you ask me.

[bradymk]

Doesn't look good on 06z, if you take a look at these two charts, one from the 6z today and one from the 18z last night, you can see the difference around Iceland as there is a shortwave here which stops height rises. Lets hope these shortwaves are just a GFS wobble, we hope. PS Looking from the models i have looked at so far this morning, NO other model supports this shortwave but caution required.

Edited January 9, 2013 by bradythemole

[Weathizard]

EDIT: Was looking at 00z, apologies guys!

Zonal inbound at 132....

Edited January 9, 2013 by Weathizard

[cold snap]

downward trend here i believe ecm will show this later.

Ecm been following gfs of late , i expect ecm to show this solution on 12z

if you dont get a greenblock the whole thing goes bang

[Snowly does it]

-5s have cleared out of England by Monday tea time, and there's no chance of GL height rises saving this run.

Make the ost of the weekends offerings and hope the GFS is over correcting with that shortwave business round Greenie

[Backtrack]

Why trust the ECM? It did a massive backtrack last night.........wonder whats instore later? This still isnt sorted in the short range if you ask me.

Because it's usually the more reliable model, I do have more faith in the ECM than I do the GFS, although who am I to judge; can't see this delivering either way to be fair.

Starting to come more in line with what the Met Office are suggesting; cold in the short term with a very temporary block, milder mid-term with the Atlantic breaking through with a colder long term with reloads perhaps from the north or north east.

[Southender]

Urrrggh.

Shortwaves all over the place. What a mess!

Funny how they always crop up at short notice to spoil the party isn't it.

Westerlies for all before the weekend is out, IF this is to be believed.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Shrimper