Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[Alex]

Onto the models and as we move closer we seem to still be unsure on any detail but cold lovers should be pleased especially with the ECM this morning! The ensembles look alot better too on the GFS 00z. I assume by Friday we will have a better grasp on snow prospects

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

[Vince Coombes]

Great charts but you can bet had it been a mild outcome the shannon whatever wouldnt be mentioned. Whenever cold and snow is in the mix in the UK bottoms start quivering .im hoping it is a very severe spell of weather just to test the airheads who think 7 degrees is bitterly cold. Big respect to Fergie for the snippets of info. But given the seriousness of what could happen i bet his bosses have told him to give very minimal info.

[nick sussex]

Just when you think you can settle down and watch the models with less stress up pops the GFS and to a smaller degree the UKMO.

The ECM is largely similar in trend to yesterday although more snowier but not as locked in in terms of robust cold deflector to any ideas the Atlantic may have.

My star billing would go to the BOM this morning, low stress although less snowier but more locked in, in terms of cold

So the drama goes on and I certainly wouldn't be celebrating until the models can agree on the cold/snowier medium term.

[weather eater]

My word that was a painful read, for a start off, did anyone truly believe the GFS was going to just keep throwing out monster GHs every run, it would have been extremely surprising if it had, and I’m pretty surprised the ECM has. Then there’s the ensembles, yesterdays GFS 12z OP fantastic, but poor ensembles, this morning GFS 00z good ensembles and poor OP in FI and that’s why I don’t bother with them, they end up a talking point, but as often as not fail to help in seeing the way ahead. Its today’s ECM and GFS OPs that interest me and the point at which their projections diverge, the 00z's good until 120hrs just, after that stark differences. In terms of a GH to follow the initial cold spell, drawing 1 – 1 after the first 20 mins. Overall I’m pretty happy this morning, the ECMs GH projection a bonus for me.

[UV-RAY]

After yesterdays poor ensembles I expected a poor GFS and having looked at the ensembles this morning I expect the GFS to be back on track on the 06z for cold. The ECM is simply stunning as you cannot get better synoptics for the UK, it this verifies then every corner of the UK will see snow falling and lying by the end of next week, superb.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Once again if the 00z GFS op is as bad as it gets for coldies this morning, then we are in a SUPERB position.

Setting aside the fact that the GEFS have moved quite markedly to a colder solution this morning, the GFS op shows conditions that are conducive to snowfall until at least the middle of next week IMBY.

Bring it on I say!

[weather eater]

So the drama goes on and I certainly wouldn't be celebrating until the models can agree on the cold/snowier medium term.

That won’t happen until they become short term, mid range models agreeing with one another is the exception rather than the norm at any time of year, the trick is to learn not to care if they don’t agree as most of the time it’s not relevant.

[Matty M]

looked at gfs and thought game over but ukm and ecm are good

ecm very snowy charts

[nick sussex]

The good news from the ECM postage stamps the operational and control run agree at 168hrs, the not so good news the ensembles are a complete mess with a mix of great, good and hideous looking members.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[Timmytour]

Uh-oh....

Is the GFS throwing a wobbler or leading the way away from an epic spell again, like I believe it did in December.

Is it following its ensembles or leading them (so that the ensembles might seem better, but just because they are playing catch up)

Has it picked up the impact of the Daily Express headline!! Or, more seriously, is one effect of the SSW that "sudden" changes in our prospects can happen like this.

I know theres a lot to be positive about still, but I ran that 0z run with a heavy heart... it doesn't give us "epic" it give us a taste. I wish I could easily dismiss it but as a indicator of things to come, rather than in its detail, I have too much respect for it.

The "let-down" experience is one we are all too familar with. I'm not going to leave my relationship with the promise of an epic spell of winter, but I've seen enough to persuade me that I would be foolish at this stage to get down on one knee with a ring in my hand before it.

[lord stratus]

A mega stunning Ecm 00z for cold, from as early as saturday and then continuing to intensify throughout next week with snow and severe frosts for all parts of the uk, comparing the ecm 00z today with yesterday's 00z shows a massive upgrade for cold, some parts of the uk could be looking at large snowfalls next week and beyond..snowbound uk has a nice ring to it.

If ever there was an example of a perfect sustained Northerly, the Ecm 00z shows it, synoptically superb

ECM is fine though there must be a firming up by the big 3 in the next 24 hours to start thinking that a good/great cold spell is on.

I wouldn't get too excited by that northerly showing on the ECM, they never deliver!

My view hasn't changed, as per my previous posts, 15th to 18th jan could be special

[nick sussex]

That won’t happen until they become short term, mid range models agreeing with one another is the exception rather than the norm at any time of year, the trick is to learn not to care if they don’t agree as most of the time it’s not relevant.

Thats what I meant, the medium term picture which brings the real cold and snow needs to be agreed on at some point even if thats at T72hrs!

[Matty M]

the comtrol and high res ecm are almost identical

The good news from the ECM postage stamps the operational and control run agree at 168hrs, the not so good news the ensembles are a complete mess with a mix of great, good and hideous looking members.

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

i think the ecm eps is good, large majority going for cold at 168

gfs op very worrying though as it is the trend setter.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not sure if right place to post a little way out but 0.0 Surely that has to be over cooking it??

[bradymk]

the comtrol and high res ecm are almost identical

i think the ecm eps is good, large majority going for cold at 168

gfs op very worrying though as it is the trend setter.

Yes almost identical, very good agreement there. A good number going for cold again this morning however there are still a few poor members so caution required. GFS op I wouldn't say is very worrying yet, I wouldn't be surprised to see it change once again come the 6z but we will see. Waiting for Matt to tweet about full EPS suite.

Edited January 9, 2013 by bradythemole

[tonbridgemole]

Gefs Esemble 2 metre temps the 19 to 24 jan look very good to me

Edited January 9, 2013 by tonbridgemole

[bradymk]

Gefs Esemble 2 metre temps the 19 to 24 jan look very good to me

Remember they are temperature anomalies not the actual temperatures but still pretty good.

[cold snap]

Shame regarding gfs.

What we went through yesterday we will have to go through it all again today.

Back for another ride on the rollecoaster anyone.

[nick sussex]

the comtrol and high res ecm are almost identical

i think the ecm eps is good, large majority going for cold at 168

gfs op very worrying though as it is the trend setter.

They might be but you have to see whats likely to happen afterwards, how many can move onto the next stage.

I am relieved though the control run hasn't jumped ship. Overall this morning out of the big 3 only the ECM has a clearish route to more snow and cold.

And given its dismal performance recently I certainly wouldn't be viewing it with much confidence. This can be said with all the output.

We might want clear answers but the models are determined not to give them.

[Great Plum]

What I would remind everyone is the words of Ian F sometime ago where he reminded us that the MET rarely look at the gfs especially after day 8, preferring instead the UKMO, ECM, MOGREPS and jma...

I assume we all hang off every nuance of the gfs runs as they come out 4 times a day and it is all freely available...

[Cloud 10]

Not sure if right place to post a little way out but 0.0 Surely that has to be over cooking it??

Entirely possible given some snow cover,light winds and cold uppers etc.

[mcweather]

JFF

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119780218.gif

Well well I wonder.............................................

[Tim Bland]

Lets face it, when do we ever have complete cross model agreement after 120 hrs? The GFS churned out 4 amazing runs in a row whilst the ensembles told us it wasn't going to be that extreme... Expect something between the 18z and 00z IMO which is still great for cold and snow. ECM is amazing for snow potential into FI and ukmo isn't too shabby either. People should be getting excited about what is going to happen 72 hrs away with widespread snow possible sat into sat night. Met-office still talking about rain on sat but I expect this to change soon and we should start getting hints from tv forecasts. I would expect meto warnings for the weekend to be up tonight after the ECM / ukmo 12z.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Tim Bland

[chris55]

Great runs again this morning, nothing nailed on, as ever, and changes could happen but as things stand excellent charts!

The weekend looks potentially snowier than the BBC breakfast forecast is suggesting, but not to concerned about that at predicting snowfall at that range is very difficult.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Entirely possible given some snow cover,light winds and cold uppers etc.

-14!!! That would be insane...You would literally have to cover outside pipes ups ETC they would burst 0.0