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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

chionomaniac

By chionomaniac
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Controlo run, mildest in Hi Res, coldest in FI,tease.gifrofl.gif

gensnh-0-0-360.png?0

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The Beast From The East Community Regular

The Beast From The East

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
Posted

Well I'm still hoping things will turn out fine. Short term still looks good to me though not sure about next week as things stand at the moment though.

Why is it that we finally get all 3 models on board and they all agree with each other and then suddenly 1 of them decided to change lol..

Still a happy bunny though :)

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
MT8_London_ens.pngMT2_London_ens.png Edited by Mucka
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snow drift Newbie

snow drift

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

One thing to keep in our minds at the moment is what IF said about the lowest amount of confidence the Meto have in terms of the model output. Should the runs be good or poor. Latest GFS not as good longer term due to lack of heights building to NW. UKMO at T144 looks good. Which ever way the ECM goes will not be decisive as FI is about T72 for me and the GH being modeled to be there or not is out of this time scale.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Ironically the GFS short ensembles are going to look much better than the 18Z or 12Z ones!

The 00z ensemble mean looks not bad, fairly chilly right through. If I've read the chart right on Meteociel the spread of 850 temps isn't too wild either, will wait until the graphs are out to pass judgement though :lol:

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

The 00z ensemble mean looks not bad, fairly chilly right through. If I've read the chart right on Meteociel the spread of 850 temps isn't too wild either, will wait until the graphs are out to pass judgement though :lol:

I think one cluster has cold throughout pretty much, others a bit more up and down, fewer very mild runs. The op was bound to be above the mean one of these runs!

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

ECM has a sturdier height build at +72 than the GFS or UKMO

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Iceni Community Regular

Iceni

Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
Posted

One thing to keep in our minds at the moment is what IF said about the lowest amount of confidence the Meto have in terms of the model output. Should the runs be good or poor. Latest GFS not as good longer term due to lack of heights building to NW. UKMO at T144 looks good. Which ever way the ECM goes will not be decisive as FI is about T72 for me and the GH being modeled to be there or not is out of this time scale.

Indeed. His phrase was their 'Shannon Entropy' was off the scale. I guess that means too much volatility and scatter, maybe due to the Strat or maybe other factors. I'm just looking forward to the short term this w/e and live from day to day… what else can we do?

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Great Plum Rising Star

Great Plum

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
Posted

Before people start worrying about FI with the gfs too much, please remember it's FI and that conversely the ensembles are much better...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

Mean in London -5 or below with some seriously cold options...

Stays cold at the surface throughout... (I know these are night temps!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.png

ECM looks great so far...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Still all to play for!

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WhiteFox Community Regular

WhiteFox

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
Posted

The most confusing episode of winter continues so far, next few runs are absolutely crucial. Aften the ECM ens last night its difficult to see how it can back track but I'm prepared for it doing so, least we still got our giant straw clutch the GEM. Can't see the UKMO? What's it like?

To be honest given the way that the GFS ensembles have been trending the last few runs, this was bound to appear on the operational at some stage. The option for the jet to go over the top was ( and still is) a possibility and the GFS sees enough support to go with that option this time. It Is just one option and, given the model variability at the moment and the fact that the ensembles have trended back towards cold, it doesn't really clear up too much. It's a shame because if the op had stayed cold and the ensembles showed the same support then I would be much more confident of the outcome. As it is, until we see the ECM it doesn't mean an awful lot. On top of that, we won't really have much more confidence for post Monday until Friday' s runs IMHO as we get closer to D- day where the split takes place and the jet goes north or south. That jet split is the single most important part of the jigsaw right now and, given the clearly conflicting signals being picked up by the models we clearly need to have a good idea of the setup immediately prior before we can proclaim an ice age.

I think the GFS figured it would be too boring to have full and total agreement across the board!

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philglossop Community Regular

philglossop

Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
Posted

Could be very very interesting- I see Emily on BBC Spotlight in Plymouth has rain and 8c for Devon and Cornwall on Saturday- but only mentioned upto Friday.

Looks like Ian F was correct- that Low on Saturday could still go further north.- snow for south Midlands?

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Turnedoutniceagain Seasoned

Turnedoutniceagain

Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
Posted

Russia stole our Greenland HP...

npsh500.png

Poor set up compared to what was showing last run. Back to the SW'lys, jet pulled north, PV chunk around Greenland, de ja vu.

Was this winter doomed from the start? I wonder what charts we'll be looking at come evening time?!

it's for the 22nd of Jan - who cares??

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BorrisB77 Newbie

BorrisB77

Posted
  • Location: 1mile north of Worcester City Centre
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,storms and sunshine!!!
  • Location: 1mile north of Worcester City Centre
Posted

Looks like the ECM is sticking to its guns this morning!! Greenland high inbound from +144 onwards

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snow drift Newbie

snow drift

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Looks like the ECM is sticking to its guns this morning!! Greenland high inbound from +144 onwards

Or maybe not. T168 is very different to last run. So good short term, long term much to decided.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

In the words of Mr Murr......BOOM!

ECH1-144.GIF?09-12

Always going to happen. GFS wobbles, ECM firms up. Still looking good but would be better for everyone's stress levels if the GFS 6z backtracks away from the 0z!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Or maybe not. T168 is very different to last run. So good short term, long term much to decided.

Different but snow potential to 168 is through the roof. Western areas cop it between 120-144 then a little kink in the isobars right over Steve Murr's house at 168 with convective activity further north. Oh and chances of Atlantic incursion snow post 168. Most people would see snow on this run.

Edited by CreweCold
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Iceni Community Regular

Iceni

Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
Posted (edited)

Nothing too tragic about this one…

post-8078-0-02735800-1357714059_thumb.gi

Edited by Iceni
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snow drift Newbie

snow drift

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Winter. Dry cool Summers
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Different but snow potential to 168 is through the roof. Western areas cop it between 120-144 then a little kink in the isobars right over Steve Murr's house at 168 with convective activity further north. Oh and chances of Atlantic incursion snow post 192. Most people would see snow on this run.

Agreed. Main difference is that at T168 PV not split. Good run but I would like to see GH for the cold to keep coming.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Nothing too tragic about this one…

High pressure stretches from the Urals to central Greenland at 168.....nowt tragic at all. Bitterly cold to this point.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Ecm looks fantastic but starts to worry me re risk in the medium term. That undercut could end up too far north. Looks like a very compelling days watching again. If the undercut is right and the block stays strong enough, we could be looking at a sustained cold spell as we saw on the crazy gfs runs yesterday.

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TAFKAP Rookie

TAFKAP

Posted
  • Location: The Sexy South
  • Weather Preferences: Fresh n Funky
  • Location: The Sexy South
Posted

I see the moaning slowly creeping back in. Could I remind you all we don't live in Siberia and this isn't 1963. The RELIABLE timeframe looks fantastic.

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