Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[Cheshire Freeze]

I see the moaning slowly creeping back in. Could I remind you all we don't live in Siberia and this isn't 1963. The RELIABLE timeframe looks fantastic.

TBH you'd be hard pressed to actively create a snowier run than this ECM.

Edited January 9, 2013 by CreweCold

[Snowmad79]

The downward trend on the GFS ENS continues with the mean dipping to -10 850's Manchester southwards and thereafter, pretty much straddles the -5 line all the way out to the end. Some members are also breaching -15. Operational and Control sit in the milder half with the control pretty much an outlier.

Great to See.

ECM ops attempt at the Greenland High is still half decent and the setup is enough to drive the jet way south across the Atlanitc with us keeping an Easterly flow well into FI. I can only see Short Wave energy going South and East post 168hr so not a bad run.

Wonder if this cold blast could really be a classic, bitterly cold days with briefest of respites as Shortwaves slide NW-SE before quickly reintroducing the bitterly cold air, Rinsing and Repeating.

Bring on the Snow Fest!

Edited January 9, 2013 by Snowmad79

[Cheshire Freeze]

Snow shovel time if 216 comes close to reality

[Great Plum]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Erm, if this came off I'd need a jcb to clear the path!

[WhiteFox]

TBH you'd be hard pressed to actively create a snowier run than this ECM.

This is true but, of course, with the snowier run you have more marginality. Last night's ECM had the freezer door shut and padlocked. The overnight ECM doesn't have the heights to the north and leaves us very susceptible to small shifts; the freezer door is left ajar. The most noticeable thing is once again just how different it is compared to the GFS. This run has no more credibility post 96 hours than the GFS or any other run we've seen this week.

[isleofwightsnowgal]

Sorry but I'm confused! Has the chance of cold/snow this weekend diminished? Or are u all looking at charts further ahead now? I will take time to learn to read the charts etc at some point I promise lol ps I'm from the iow where our chances of cold n snow are normally 0! And last nihht things looked promising for us- Thanks n sorry if in wrong thread but ill only post once and you're all so knowledgable!

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

Erm, if this came off I'd need a jcb to clear the path!

Indeed, best guess you'd be looking at close to a foot of snow in some areas given previous accumulation.

[Snowmad79]

Snow shovel time if 216 comes close to reality

Yeah and just think, you could actually get pasted more than I usually do with what we are seeing in the models as of late. The stuff white dreams are made of

[WhiteFox]

Sorry but I'm confused! Has the chance of cold/snow this weekend diminished? Or are u all looking at charts further ahead now? I will take time to learn to read the charts etc at some point I promise lol ps I'm from the iow where our chances of cold n snow are normally 0! And last nihht things looked promising for us- Thanks n sorry if in wrong thread but ill only post once and you're all so knowledgable!

GFS upgrades Saturday for the midlands. However, we'll See the high res models for Saturday coming out from tomorrow so we'll have a better idea. I think Saturday's picture may well come down to on the ground reports at the time!

Edited January 9, 2013 by WhiteFox

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is true but, of course, with the snowier run you have more marginality. Last night's ECM had the freezer door shut and padlocked. The overnight ECM doesn't have the heights to the north and leaves us very susceptible to small shifts; the freezer door is left ajar. The most noticeable thing is once again just how different it is compared to the GFS. This run has no more credibility post 96 hours than the GFS or any other run we've seen this week.

You don't need 1055mb heights over Greenland.....look at 78/79. Just enough heights to deflect the jet southwards and you get scenarios such as the ECM 0z or Dec 1978.

This good enough?

Edited January 9, 2013 by CreweCold

[mountain shadow]

Lol at the GFS ops. After being faultless it suddenly throws out a stinker but it unlikely to be right now. ECM is stonking.

[Dave Kightley]

Higher height's over Greenland on the ECM and we have a deal. I guess this is what the GFS ens picked up on by bring Atlantic back in.

Conflicting signals with milder runs it must be what the ECM is showing? Undercut?

Edited January 9, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[tonbridgemole]

ECM is a snow stonker....

[Jason H]

Holy cow. Another snow fest from the ECM.

[Snowmad79]

Some slight northward adjustment of this band of PPN before it starts its eastward journey will do me very nicely thanks Mr GFS A lot more of us will a good hiding then!

[snow drift]

Well ECM gives a different view to last night and if it were to happen in that way most would be very happy as I am sure most like to see snow rather than just cold. Whats more from T240 there is much potential. Lets hope it still followings this trend come 6.00 this evening.

[Zakos]

Thie ECM is truly amazing this morning, rivalling December 2010

Epic Hemispheric chart, the best I have ever seen.

An absolute snowfest this morning from the ECM. It would be extremely hard to beat that that run, and so we should (hopefully not ) expect downgrades in future. However even significant downgrades will still produce a very wintry spell of weather. I would struggle to draw better chart at 240

In my view the GFS is defaulting, as it so commonly does. Very little support for its rapid atantic breakdown, and ridiculous regeneration of the Polar vortex

[snowstorm445]

Am I right in thinking that the GFS Ops goes pear shaped in the less reliable timeframe, and that it's still good short term? That's what really matters at the moment I think.

Great ECM btw!

[Weathizard]

Bingo. Was depressed when I woke up to see GFS op but ECM firms up on the outcome. Hopefully its gets locked in now. ECM rivals the GFS charts of recent days for 'narnia' scenarios.

Oh and another positive, another wild swing from the GFS ens to cold, very strange!

Edited January 9, 2013 by Weathizard

[SHM040519]

Morning all, what is the snow risk for Kent this weekend? Roughly? As getting a train Saturday evening from a football match and we all know how bad southeastern are when it snows!

Thanks!!

[Mucka]

You don't need 1055mb heights over Greenland.....look at 78/79. Just enough heights to deflect the jet southwards and you get scenarios such as the ECM 0z or Dec 1978.

This good enough?

You're right but it was a perfectly raesonable comment he made, This is an absolutely stunning run but last nights was more secure and we would have to rely on deep FI providing the reload of WAA just when required as well as the Atantic being deflected far enough South. Not that it matters because it won't verify as is. It is just another + in hte search for a cold spell. Looking very positive this morning other than GFS Op which I don't think will be repeated again - fingers crossed.

[Craigers]

I was a tad concerned looking at the GFS 00z chart but the ensembles seem to be better than the 18z.

Then i came across the ECM and this is JUST what we all want to see.

Heights rushing to greenland!

Now the atlantic has gone in reverse!

Heights getting pumped upto greenland again!

Can't get any better than this! looking good people!!!!!

[chionomaniac]

I think it is best not to look too far ahead - past this weekend - or at least be prepared to see a variety of options of what could be on offer and not be too concerned. Look at the GFS control for example- it goes mild very quick before producing a monster at the end.

[Kiwi]

Not good for my old ticker this model watching! The GFS 0z gives me near heart failure with its downgrades as I woke at 4.30am for a peek.

Now palpitations over my toast and tea as I gaze lovingly at the ECM 0z. Something for everyone I think ...easterlies, a couple of channel lows and then to cap it all a decent northerly!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

It's still a rollercoaster, we looked down from the very top last night, saw a view that almost everyone liked.

This morning we're on one of the lesser bumps, with the GFS showing us that things aren't perfect, while the ECM tries to pull us to greater heights.

Still not much word from the BBC (Breakfast) re snow "A touch of snow on Sunday for Eastern Coastal areas" sums it up -- not enough to build a snowman