Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[The Eagle]

This is going to topple. I suppose a run like this was inevitable with the ensembles.

[Met4Cast]

Annndd here comes the toppler

Watch the ensembles suddenly trend cold now

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is going to topple. I suppose a run like this was inevitable with the ensembles.

It's certainly going to be touch and go. Even if it gets there eventually, we're living dangerously and I'd prefer a cleaner pattern around Greenland.

[BOMBHEADS]

i think we are going to see a battleground with cold winning out.

[Wilxy]

This is going to topple. I suppose a run like this was inevitable with the ensembles.

Yep, im afraid so at least short term still looks ok.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Annndd here comes the toppler

Watch the ensembles suddenly trend cold now

It's not going to topple this run....at 138 it looks like it'll just make it. Any more leans towards this trend though and in future outputs we'll be looking at a toppler for sure. It's a trend we need to pull away from today.

[SMU]

http://www.wetter3.de/animation.html

this is the one bottom box schneefallgrenze schneedecke is the one.

[essexweather]

UKMO T+108 and T+120 shows a strong North-Easterly flow (-9/10c 850s) with snow showers piling into EA and SE on Sunday (Can't post intranet link sorry)

For now, possibility of wet snow for places on Saturday, but snow showers seem very possible in favoured spots for Sunday and into Monday morning.

[Met4Cast]

It's not going to topple this run....at 138 it looks like it'll just make it. Any more leans towards this trend though and in future outputs we'll be looking at a toppler for sure. It's a trend we need to pull away from today.

There's no way its going to make it on this run

[Cheshire Freeze]

There's no way its going to make it on this run

At 150 that low south of Greenland is winding back in on itself and just heading NW and pumping up WAA ahead of it. Just wait and see.

Best guess is pressure rise just east of north with retrogression later on.

Edited January 9, 2013 by CreweCold

[Wilxy]

The SW winds will definatly just about make it on this run.

[LomondSnowstorm]

At 150 that low south of Greenland is winding back in on itself and just heading NW and pumping up WAA ahead of it. Just wait and see.

Best guess is pressure rise just east of north with retrogression later on.

I think if it can survive this run with what looks like the least favourable split flow then it can probably survive any split flow. Not the ideal evolution by any means even if it does make it.

[SNOWPLOUGH]

At 150 that low south of Greenland is winding back in on itself and just heading NW and pumping up WAA ahead of it. Just wait and see.

Best guess is pressure rise just east of north with retrogression later on.

I would agree with this- its all FI anyway and we go through a very dodgy patch to get there but I think pressure will rise just to the north/north east of scotland on this run.

Dan

[Mucka]

[Met4Cast]

UKMO.. toppler

Oh dear oh dear

EDIT: Just seen the NH view, not as bad as I first thought!

Edited January 9, 2013 by Daniel Smith

[The Eagle]

Let the downgrades begin. UKMO OK at 144 hrs but 120 is meh.

[Wilxy]

UKMO.. toppler

Oh dear oh dear

Yep seems more realistic to me still at least it still looking good at weekend.

[essexweather]

UKMO 00Z ends with low pressure in the North Sea with outbreaks of snow down the East coast at T+144 (Tuesday)

Uppers around -6c, and surface temps just above freezing.

[Mucka]

UKMO.. toppler

Oh dear oh dear

EDIT: Just seen the NH view, not as bad as I first thought!

That doesn't look like a toppler to me but I find it harder to read the UKMO 24h increments. The shape of the WAA looks good but the position of the low aint great.

[The Eagle]

UKMO about holds on to future prospects post 144 hrs. But we are in downgrade territory. GFS op is disappointing though good for the weekend.

[SMU]

UKMO 00Z ends with low pressure in the North Sea with outbreaks of snow down the East coast at T+144 (Tuesday)

Uppers around -6c, and surface temps just above freezing.

yep just needs a slight tweak west to be a uk snowfest....

S

[Snowy Liverpool]

And now GFS does what it does best and revert to zonal when it doesn't know what's going on. I'm pretty sure that will be one of the milder ensembles at t144 onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

OK GFS is poor given what preceded it.....we just about didn't get away with the height rises this run but it was a close run thing. UKMO not too bad at 144 but not as clean as earlier. There may be some disgruntled people in the morning.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Slight difference in the vortex modelling in FI between the 18Z and 00Z:

[Cheshire Freeze]

Russia stole our Greenland HP...

Poor set up compared to what was showing last run. Back to the SW'lys, jet pulled north, PV chunk around Greenland, de ja vu.

Was this winter doomed from the start? I wonder what charts we'll be looking at come evening time?!

Edited January 9, 2013 by CreweCold