Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[Paul T]

Interesting fact from the 18z?

The whole of England and Wales is under 528dam air (or lower) from 102hrs to 276hrs. That is Unreal.

To any newbies, that means that essentially any precipitation that falls from the sky will be snow.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Paul T

[5thchang]

[Buzz]

Wow amazing fax for T144.

Or even T120.

[TEITS]

So who's up for the 0z?

I never stay up to view model runs (only lamp post watching) but even im tempted. Unfortunately though I can't due to an early morning doctors appointment. If she asked why I look so tired I would probably be sectioned.

Extraordinary day on here and many including myself are lost for words. Still doesn't matter as we couldn't post them anyway.

[Chris D]

Or even T120.

Sorry meant T120 haha

Getting mixed up between UKMO and fax lol

Think I need to go to bed, mind's not working correctly after all this drama!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Chris D

[bryan629]

sounds fantastic paul, when do the 510`s arrive lol

[Tim Bland]

The BBC Meto forecasters carefully avoided talking about this weekend, as I guess they don't want egg on their face, or to cause a panic!

To be fair though they don't need to. It's not normal for a bbc forecast on a Tues to go into detail about the weekend. I would expect a few more hints tomorrow then Thurs we will see the weekend forecast. Before then they can see 3 more ECM runs and 6 GFS runs to be certain. Remember it's only 1 run from ECM that has backed the GFS, will be a relief to see the same from the ECM in the morning, until then I'm keeping the sledge in the shed lol

[Isolated Frost]

Interestingly, the hi-res (from 84 to 192) is very cold, at times extremely so, and is as close to perfection for much of the nation, under a east, then north, then north-east, then east flow.

If that is perfection, then what is this?

The GFS 18z challenges the ECM 12z, and the upper air flow is completely reversed. Absolutely staggering.

[nick sussex]

The first record to be smashed this upcoming cold spell is the users online record!

Yet again a shortwave stops the really cold air from reaching our shores!

I think everything else has already been said.

Edit: The initial cold has nothing to do with the SSW as Ian Ferguson said?

I doubt very much you'd be seeing these synoptics without an initial quick response to the SSW.

The full downwelling won't be seen just yet but the slowing of the zonal flow and then reversal at 60N is clearly impacting the troposphere.

[blackprince]

Apologies for the cut down forum at the moment, we'll be running like this until morning when we can properly dig into why it was crashing.

Must be the server getting over excited!!! hope she's calmer before the weekend or it will be just lamp post watching instead of NW forums and radar's

[The Eagle]

18z ensembles will be worse than the 12z remarkably enough.

[MR EXTREMES]

how about this then add another model into the realiable time frame lol

Model NCMRWF cards (India)

and heights building like the rest

[essexweather]

Very happy with the T+120 FAX chart from Exeter... 528 DAM is not that important in a Easterly flow, but for the whole of the UK to be inside that's a bonus.

Complete cross-model confidence tonight for the period 96-120 hours. Happy Days!

[MR EXTREMES]

I never stay up to view model runs (only lamp post watching) but even im tempted. Unfortunately though I can't due to an early morning doctors appointment. If she asked why I look so tired I would probably be sectioned.

Extraordinary day on here and many including myself are lost for words. Still doesn't matter as we couldn't post them anyway.

atleast you could give her a weather warning lol.

[SMU]

18z ensemble mean down to -9c at 120 odd now so its all going the right way- Although in the longer term the 18z ensembles struggling to pick up the retrograde to iceland....

A fantastic day- we are nearly home & dry for some snow in the UK friday night- however lets wait until tomorrow 18z where it will be on the NAE-

S

[Slowpoke]

Who is ready for lamp post watching?!

(I live on a private road now, no lamp posts Spare a thought for me guys </3)

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z ensembles will be worse than the 12z remarkably enough.

Certainly looks like it....was hoping for a good ensemble suite! Pfffft looks like I'm staying up for the 0z a 5th night in a row then!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

528 Dam air over East Anglia on the T96 FAX, over middle of Ireland from Cork to the North by the T120.

Also by T120, only Western Scotland not in sub 528 Dam air. Cold? You bet, better get some supplies in.....

Paul, you've taken away our counter of who's online. Will you tell us when we break the record?

Edited January 8, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[TEITS]

18z ensembles will be worse than the 12z remarkably enough.

Yes rather odd really that despite the ensembles we consistently see very cold operationals which is supported by the UKMO/ECM. So the only thing I can think of is the ensembles are missing something either due to the resolution or due to the starting point of each ensemble member being tweaked. For example we now have good ensemble support for the mean in my location to drop to around -8C and yet a few days ago this mean was at -3C. This dropped because simply more ensembles come on board. Hope this is the case for the medium range.

Edited January 8, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[joggs]

What a fantastic day model wise n my team Bradford city beating Villa in the cup,Ps just got back from game to catch up on the mods

[Met4Cast]

I think i'll wait and see the ensembles for myself. People were complaining about them on the 12z and they turned out to be absolutely fine

[Chris K]

I was going to wait until the 18z had fully finished but I had to try it about half way through due to imminent heart failure and anticipation.

Couldn't access the website due to the servers going down....

From that point, I smiled before even seeing the run haha. A proper corker afternoon & evening. Fingers crossed it continues tonight/tomorrow

[5thchang]

Who is ready for lamp post watching?!

(I live on a private road now, no lamp posts Spare a thought for me guys </3)

[snowblues]

Maybe some of these fantasy charts might come into the reliable, if ssw is not forecasted fully into this initial outbreak.OOOO BOY!

Edited January 8, 2013 by snowblues

[blackprince]

Who is ready for lamp post watching?!

(I live on a private road now, no lamp posts Spare a thought for me guys </3)

Hi have you got a floodlight? mine is on out the back during snow watch and I have a lamp post out the front,sod the expense