Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[EML Network]

As has already been said the Ensembles are not looking too great at all for Next week, the majority of the runs want to follow the control run...and dare I say this...put us back to square one again :-(

Which does seem very confusing, given the ECM Ensembles, no wonder confusion reigns in Exeter...still best not worry ourselves about next week just yet eh ?

[Bobby]

The 18z ensembles are quite a downgrade on the 12z ones going forward, the ECM ensemble mean is -6c to -7c over most of the UK by +168, the GFS barely above 0c and rising!

Mean by +192 above freezing for most with mild SWlies....

Control run is bad. Very confusing.

[Weathizard]

I know I shouldn't but the GEFS look quite poor to me? Most bring the Atlantic back in by 192ish, if my eyes aren't deceiving me just scanning quickly. Low near Iceland is absolutely CRUCIAL.

[-uksnow-]

Regarding the ensembles, i am by no means straw clutching, im extremely happy with todays runs but i do find it strange that the op runs keep finding these corkers without much long term support from the ens GFSwise, as we know the ECM ens were very good with it sitting fairly middle pack - but - im sure i've read somewhere that not 'often' but the ens can sometimes be the last thing to come on board with cold spells, i unfortunately cant provide a link for this and im fully prepared for a backtrack or non event but what are you guys opinions on the idea of the ens coming onboard later?

-eded-

[Isolated Frost]

+120, ops and ens. That's all there is to look at. There are a lot of signals and many solutions to come forward, so don't worry about the fluctuations. The fact the ops support it more is definitely encouraging. We are approaching a rapid cool down and there is plenty more to be signed and sealed off.

Calm and patience, cold is now within +96 for many.

[picog]

Eek, this looks a bit serious

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

[Cheshire Freeze]

The 18z ensembles are quite a downgrade on the 12z ones going forward, the ECM ensemble mean is -6c to -7c over most of the UK by +168, the GFS barely above 0c and rising!

Mean by +192 above freezing for most with mild SWlies....

Control run is bad. Very confusing.

I'm going to hold off on the excitement for the time being and go along with the mindset that this isn't going to come off. Sounds strange but It'll take the edge off the disappointment should these operational charts not come to fruition.

Had the GEFS been in agreement I probably would have tentatively gone along with the GH scenario.

[Froze were the Days]

Ensembles perhaps reacting to a failed link up to GH (144z) period which does looks a bit 'dodgy' on this run.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Froze were the Days

[ITSY]

yup. Mean GFS southwesterlies come the end of high res. (180). the Op is massively on the cold side/an outlier. (funny since ECMop is bang in the middle of its pack).

the consistent inconsistency is so tedious.

[Neilsouth]

Other forecasters really need to start taking note. Ians forecasts are easily some of the best I've seen!

Agreed!

Why do we get such short, brief pre-school forecasts!

[TEITS]

Regarding the ensembles, i am by no means straw clutching, im extremely happy with todays runs but i do find it strange that the op runs keep finding these corkers without much long term support from the ens GFSwise, as we know the ECM ens were very good with it sitting fairly middle pack - but - im sure i've read somewhere that not 'often' but the ens can sometimes be the last thing to come on board with cold spells, i unfortunately cant provide a link for this and im fully prepared for a backtrack or non event but what are you guys opinions on the idea of the ens coming onboard later?

-eded-

You are right in what you say.

Based on my years on here if the operational continues to be an outlier within the higher resolution period i.e +0 to +180 then generally aslong as this continues then the ensembles eventually fall back into line. Having said this ideally tomorrow not only do the models i.e ECM/GFS etc need to continue with the same trend but I would like to see some more ensemble support from the GEFS.

[Met4Cast]

Re: Ensembles

The Jet split is a crucial development and if that doesn't happen then the block can't develop and things flatten out, the ensembles are run at a lower resolution so they're probably not able to plot exactly how thats going to take place, hence we're seeing milder runs.

The Operational has had the split perfect for us in the last 4 runs and has consistently brought about very cold synoptics. The ECM ensembles are great for us with few milder runs along with the UKMO model, for the moment, I'd be inclined to side with the GFS op, ECM + Ensembles and the UKMO.

We'll see what happens tomorrow, but tonight, I wouldn't worry TOO much about the GFS ensembles.

[Ali1977]

If the ens are bad, does that mean Ukmo and ECM are also wrong? As well as the other models supporting the cold?

[bluearmy]

In respect of the gefs, there is clearly something happening quote early in the op run that the gefs resolution, in general, is not picking up. The ecm ens are at a higher resolution and they are on message.

i wouldnt be too concerned if the 00z ops are all on the same pattern, even if the ens miss it again. By tomorrows 12z, the gefs should have sorted out the problem. If there is op variation in the morning then it may be time for some alarm bells unless the gefs are on board.

It shows you that nothing is certain yet.

[Paul]

Just for anyone who wants to try and troll this thread with inane comments designed to get a reaction, no messing about you're going to be banned for at least the remainder of the winter, so think about it before hitting submit on your post...

[UV-RAY]

Well after viewing the ensembles I think we should be very cautious before we start popping open the champagne corks, don't be surprised to see a much more watered down version tomorrow.

[Weathizard]

yup. Mean GFS southwesterlies come the end of high res. (180). the Op is massively on the cold side/an outlier. (funny since ECMop is bang in the middle of its pack).

the consistent inconsistency is so tedious.

Indeed, as soon as we get what looks like agreement we get the ENS folding, very strange considering the ECM ensembles are absolutely fantastic, don't understand what is going on? Up until last night we had solid ENS LOTS of members sub -5 ect now we have the OP onside and the ENS have moved massively away from it? Very bizzare, anyone got a theory based on past?

+ I understand they are lower resolution, but it is very odd how not many PTB back it, even at 144, if the ECM are at higher resolution as said above, perhaps this does explain it to a point, just hope the op sticks to its guns!

Edited January 8, 2013 by Weathizard

[gaia rules]

Just looked at the T144, T120 and T96 from the GFS all for Sat 12:00 pm. Each run shows the progressive drop in pressure over the whole of Northern Europe and rise in pressure over Iceland. The scandi high stays pretty much the same. The low to our SW in particular deepens and carrys more energy with each run so could become more nasty.

Edited January 8, 2013 by gaia rules

[Yarmy]

I have to say in my short time here that Chart Viewer's dispatches from the Chinese NWP are a constant source of amusement. It's the only model where the actual weather arrives before the chart.

[Dexter29]

Beautiful charts today.

But the ensembles prove not to polish of the sledge just yet.

I want to see more ensemble support from the GEFS tomorrow as well.

[pyrotech]

Why are some people so worried about Ensembles in FI, huge agreement to 15th on them of COLD.

Percipitation also with -5 to -8 uppers

Then a total mess afterwards but thats Fi , and alot to play for, nothing to say the op after that is somewhat correct or not, but even then and throughout the mean stays below zero, a huge positive but yes uncertainty.

But for the reliable frame it looks very good even though we need things on track by thursday to get there.

[blackprince]

Re: Ensembles

The Jet split is a crucial development and if that doesn't happen then the block can't develop and things flatten out, the ensembles are run at a lower resolution so they're probably not able to plot exactly how thats going to take place, hence we're seeing milder runs.

The Operational has had the split perfect for us in the last 4 runs and has consistently brought about very cold synoptics. The ECM ensembles are great for us with few milder runs along with the UKMO model, for the moment, I'd be inclined to side with the GFS op, ECM + Ensembles and the UKMO.

We'll see what happens tomorrow, but tonight, I wouldn't worry TOO much about the GFS ensembles.

Hi when is the next operational you would use to add the the 4 with the cold synoptics?

[Buzzit]

Hi all - If it makes anyone feel better - ptb 20 is very similar to the op on the 18z

Edited January 8, 2013 by Buzzit

[Southern Storm]

I'm going to hold off on the excitement for the time being and go along with the mindset that this isn't going to come off. Sounds strange but It'll take the edge off the disappointment should these operational charts not come to fruition.

Had the GEFS been in agreement I probably would have tentatively gone along with the GH scenario.

Yes I'm starting to think along the same lines, it very bizarre that we have cross model agreement

Going forward but the gfs ensembles don't want to know, which I can only put down to the lower resolution.

Having said that, we have had every model under the sun rolled out this evening bringing in the cold long term and I assume the they are run a higher resolution than gfs ens, so if we stack them all together

We have ourselves a nice set of high resolution ensembles if you catch my drift.

But as always more runs needed!

Edited January 8, 2013 by thunderman24

[tonbridgemole]

GFS 102hrs...makes me happy! not worried about anything else at the moment