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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).


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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes (ish) 140m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes (ish) 140m ASL

I hope I'm reading the models right - looks like quite a few ice days on the cards next week, no matter what falls.

The server can't handle the stress you're all causing it :)

Edited by Grinzzz
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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

LOL!!!!

gfsnh-0-348.png?18

Just fainted....

That surely would never happen! Wow

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Posted
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3
  • Location: Savoy Circus W10 / W3

Im watching the ensemble mean from the GFS 18z - looking good so far and in line with prior - am hoping for more of a move to the GFS Op but not an absolute requirement at this time

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

when you see comments like:

"a long fetch Easterly for the American East coast" and

"best run ever *dies* "

"the earth must be spinning the wrong way round"

"jet stream has gone into reverse"

"helicopters will plummet"

"the day after tomorrow chart"

you know its been a good day.

WOW.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

144z area of the run looks pretty crucial if we are going to sustain deeper cold from mid-week on (16th) - looks susceptible to the Atlantic but other than that pretty good consistency!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well in December we had 'that ECM', now we have 'those GFS's'. It's been remarkably consistent since Sunday evening with the UKMO and ECM catching up. Just think, this is only 4 days away

gfs-0-96.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire

If Paul strips any thing else off we will be all blushing!!!!

Not seen charts like this since ummm ... december 2012.. darn it!!

No serious with all the back ground infomation that has been forcast this is the result, real cold conditions to discribe it as a few frosts is a bit tame.

Just becarefull what you all wish for as it could come true

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Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees

IAN F (PhoneCalls the Prime Minister) How you doing cam son we have a bit of a snow situation developing here ...

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

BANKED!

gfs-2-360.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

CMA240....3 Minues later than last night...hmmm

cmanh-0-240.png?12

Well at least it was worth waiting for!!! rofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Second warming?

gfsnh-10-384.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

London ens;

post-12721-0-51793600-1357686288_thumb.jpost-12721-0-67952400-1357686294_thumb.jpost-12721-0-31300200-1357686300_thumb.j

Much better than yesterday's!

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The first record to be smashed this upcoming cold spell is the users online record!

Yet again a shortwave stops the really cold air from reaching our shores!

h850t850eu.png

I think everything else has already been said.

Edit: The initial cold has nothing to do with the SSW as Ian Ferguson said?

Edited by RAIN RAIN RAIN
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Well what can you say!

Another tremendous run from the GFS with plenty of snow chances, harsh frosts. Synoptics that really you can only dream about in the UK.

It really doesn't get better than this. I expect they'll be a record turnout in the morning. I used to stay up sometimes in the UK to watch the 00hrs come out but with the hour time difference a bit too late even for me!

trouble is when u see them charts which are not likely to turn out like these charts seen tonight, then u expect the same and when its not omg.

but i will say if this fails then im not watching the models until feb.

lets face its not likely to panout the same as tonights models perhaps watered down version with snow but not as deep cold as being shown.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

CMA240....3 Minues later than last night...hmmm

cmanh-0-240.png?12

Your comments are fantastic, I have to say.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Looks like the pub stayed open all day!

When you are moaning in the middle of summer that it is too hot, just think back to these charts!

I see Teits has not posted yet. If these charts come off he will be seeing polar bears nevermind seagulls

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire

No ukmo120 fax or is the chief forecaster still rubbing his eyes.lol

The BBC Meto forecasters carefully avoided talking about this weekend, as I guess they don't want egg on their face, or to cause a panic!

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Apologies for the cut down forum at the moment, we'll be running like this until morning when we can properly dig into why it was crashing.

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