Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[Matty M]

GFS looking quite bullish. im sure it would turn colder again down the line, but the trend to water down initial cold push and re-introduce some milder atlantic weather for a period is looking very likely,

[Weathizard]

I do have a lot of respect for your posts Steve, but honestly I really don't get this 6Z isn't as good as the 12Z thing, I know the 12Z gets slightly more data fed into it from weather balloons or something but if the 06Z was that useless, they wouldn't run it.

Starting to see consistency now for mild/average mid-term, can't see the 12Z doing much apart from giving false hope if a stella run is delivered.

Consistency? TWO GFS RUNS? Not being rude but thats hardly consistency, yesterday we had FOUR gfs runs in a row with a different outcome! (cold) Who knows, I personally am not sure what to back, normally I'd back the ECM over any other model by a long, long distance but I'm not so sure here. Especially as this run has 6hrs more data. Still very much 50-50 I'd say either way. If it goes wrong this time it has to go down as one of the greatest (worst) ever model let downs though. And if it does happen as the 6z suggests, the atlantic will be in charge for a while yet.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Paul

[Dampdorset82]

Come on guys, we cant take one run and say it is going to happen, whether it shows raging Easterlies or South Westerlies, if it shows again on the 12z's then granted we need to worry, or worse cross model agreement, but it is just one run, we've seen ,more flips than the gymnastics at the Olympics this week, so lets just see would be my urge.

progressively the colder is becoming short lived and I think alot of folks have been caught up in FI thinking a cold run was in the bag. The truth of it was the Met never had confidence this weekend for anything severe and FI is FI and like it does its changing!

[Paul]

As usual from certain posters, it's over-reaction central in here. If you want to whine and moan and write off any hope of cold between now and 2020, please don't do it in this thread since the majority of people are actually looking to read about the model output rather than the overly dramatic woe is me type stuff. If you feel the need to have a moan, there's a thread setup for it:

http://forum.netweat...n-ramp-go-nuts/

[cold snap]

the models picking up issues as we get nearer the timeframe.

Remember once we get the greenland high in place theres only one winner ,bitterly cold winds.thats the bread and butter of it all really.

[Weathizard]

GFS

(WARNING FOR UGLINESS)

ECM 168

Edited January 9, 2013 by Weathizard

[EML Network]

Well we were bound to get an Op run that followed the mild solution, let's see where it sits among the ensembles before getting too carried away, form experience though...when the ensembles pick up a trend as they did last night..and the op follows it a few runs later..it's never a good sign, and the ECM ensembles are showing a similar possibility.

But there is always the chance this run could follow the overnight control run, and I for one wouldn't mind that at all...and don't forget folks...were not even half way through Winter yet !!

[mountain shadow]

Surely the vortex modelled in the 6z is completely at odds with what we should expect given the ongoing SSW?

[Shunter]

The thing I don't like with all this constant chopping and changing is that as you get to within 144hrs theres less room for changes so when the final chop comes we'd better hope its for cold and snow and not the underwhelming picture painted by the GFS.

Yes I agree, its almost like they "tinker" with the starting ingredients for OP & CTL runs to see if they display seperate outcomes....maybe they should leave initialisation data as raw only for Operational runs. Maybe then we would see greater stability in the 72-96 hr window.

The 06z GFS Op brings the back the PV which goes against its own hemispherical pattern and any SSW propogation for this timescale. Questionable logic in the input data or just pure chaos theory thats the question???

[bradymk]

Over next few runs, it may be worth keeping an eye on higher res models such as the GME as these are higher resolution than GFS and the development of the shortwave will come into this time period soon. Some of the posts in here are pretty stupid btw, please use Paul's advice and use the moaning thread!!! The ensembles are not out yet and if it has this shortwave wrong by Iceland early on then the output would be completely different.

Edited January 9, 2013 by bradythemole

[fergieweather]

Looking at the Meto surface pressure charts and ECM the difference is the thickness, 528 Dam runs Very top of NE Wales to Norfolk diagonally just about clipping Birmingham so if data is correct that must be the reason. Alot can change in 3 days thou.

Plus im guessing thats the difference they see, it seems the most obvious one to me.

I merely quoted brum as one example based on tephi. UKMO modified fields don't just restrict potential to there.

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs6z is horrible terrible grim grrr and gfs aswell which makes it rather more of a worry.

cold snap still though so aslong as we get atleast one snowfall i be happy.

[garbagebags]

but if the 06Z was that useless, they wouldn't run it.

They run FI every run and lets be honest, thats as good as useless. And look at the CFS for goodness sake.

[UV-RAY]

We shouldn't be to surprised at the 06z, the ensembles have been hinting at a short cold snap for the last couple of days, also the MetO said much the same. The real cold should arrive in the next 10 days or so.

[pyrotech]

Not quite sure why GFS is so keen to bring in shortwaves, i am certainly not saying its wrong as it may yet be right, however as a SSW get underway and influences the troposphere, blocking is more evident and shortwaves will have more dificulty in forming and certainly less deep. So its with reason that i say this is a less likely outcome.

I would suggest that as the effects propogate down through the atmosphere, anomalies like this will become evident, for now i will stick with the ECM, as GFS goes against the known effects of a SSW event.

?But we shall see

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Hiya

I have very limited knowledge of models and their likely outcomes, so could someone please give me a biginners description of an outlier, a short wave and a toppler please?

I know there's a learners area but a bit short of time at the moment and I'm sure you guys will be able to give a perfect explination!!

Thanks Guys

[joggs]

The 06z doesnt tie in with the 500mb charts?

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Even if things got a bit milder next week I don't think we are looking at the empty bucket scenario of December as the strat warming has had a massive effect or soon will and that isn't just going to disappear overnight. I don't think the GFS 06 is right but if it is in as far as the first bite is only brief, I honestly don't see us waiting around again for weeks for further cold outbreaks to show up.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Cumulonimbus Tower

[seabreeze86]

All still to play for in my opinion. I knew something like this would happen its impossible for the GFS to be this consistent. Looking at the other outputs this morning the ECM and GEM and stonkers and the UKMO although not as good is not the horror show of the 6z.

Dont overreact to two GFS runs, infact the 0z GEFS is slightly better in my opinion.

Lets see what the afternoon runs bring before statements like (zonal from tuesday) as only one model is currently showing this or course it could be onto a new trend but we dont no as yet.

[Icequeen]

Alert! Lurker stepping out of shadows......please! speculating and analysing the model outputs looking for trends etc is appropriate but stating after one alternative run that the outcome is certain at this point is ......well ridiculous. I'm only learning but know enough not to read each model separately but use them collectively as a tool. That is all.

[Timmytour]

I've been impressed by the lack of mood swing in here this morning, as Ian f said the uncertainty is at record high levels with the models throwing out many different outcomes. Still more to come I think.

Stand by.....

[Paul]

Getting a bit stupid in here at the moment, every second post is being deleted for being overly emotional, a dig at another member, bickering or totally off topic. The team are here to help, we're not here to be people's brains for them - if you aren't interested in trying to contribute to the discussion positively with on topic posts then don't post. Alternatively those who continue to ruin it for others will be blocked from posting in here.

[A.J]

A few members seriously need to chill out and relax!......Smoke a Jamaican woodbine, or pop a strong pill or two...lol...so, where are we at the moment?...well to my rather untrained eye, ...06z GFS throws a bit of a curveball our way fit and puts us in rPM flow from T132-T174 (the latest frame)...an interesting development, would lead to interesting weather at that time frame if verified (heavy thundery showers for a start).....but as with all output post T96, worth taking with a large pinch of salt currently, models are flip-flopping and falling over currently, so yes, worth noting, but not worth braking out the prozac at this juncture.....especially not worth working up a sweat on until the ens come out (and worth noting the 06z run doesn't have balloon data)

[Hammer]

06z to T96 looks fine to me. That's as far as I want to look. Given the vast amount of solutions from GFS ens and ECM ens in past few days and indeed other models, for anyone expecting that we wouldn't see a mild solution come through operational needs a reality check.

[Timmytour]

T180.... difference of over 40mb for London from previous GFS run