Scotland Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[lorenzo]

Arrrgggh, the NAE12z essentially shows rain here throughout the entire forecast period! If it turns out to be accurate it will be great for most other areas and awful for Aberdeen.

Sorry Doc, feel I must apologise up in chilly Newmachar and have suitably jinxed things, although did catch some sleetier mix on the top of Anderson Drive, on the drive up the East Coast sleet also at elevation this afternoon, before dropping a couple of hundred metres and solid rain. Temp 2 degrees pressure approx 1009mb.

Looking at the Satellite, all that cold out East needed was an ignition switch..

Off to nosey through the 12zs

[Allyw12]

This is the undercut:

An even better one:

UKMO good also, would be quite a lot of snow for the east up to this point where it slackens:

The cold spell just keeps on getting longer...

Looks so pretty hope the ECM joins the other models again tonight

[A Winter's Tale]

The NAE is getting slated in the MT for not showing snow for the south of England

It's time to move London to the Cairngorm plateau then there'll be nae need for the NAE charts.

[Northernlights]

Fine frosty sunset again with a maximum temperature of 2c at 2.00pm with blue skies and sunshine then. Currently -2c and patchly cloud. Smashing day and frost lay all day in the shade

[snow1975]

No snow here today. I suppose the Met were correct to lift the yellow warning from the bulk of Fife yesterday. I think the Se wind has blown the showers up the coast. My wet-bulb temperature was hovering around 2C to 2.5c today. Looking ahead to the easterly flow this coming week, Ideally, we need uppers to be 2-3C colder than they are at present. I reckon uppers are -6C at present, so -9C or lower would be perfect for lying snow to low levels here in the east.

Edited January 12, 2013 by snow1975

[BurntFishTrousers]

Now, remember, the Met O paid millions of £ for a super-computer to get things wrong. Therefore, if they have downgraded it can mean only one thing - MAJOR snawbaw fights in the coming days.

(Do you like my reverse thinking?)

[Buriedundersnow]

there now saying only hill snow on the bbc

[Sraigcaife]

My plan is to avoid any weather reports and avoid looking at any weather forums over the next couple of days and judge the weather forecast by looking out the front window and opening the door to judge the temperature !!

[over_the_rainbow]

there now saying only hill snow on the bbc

yep just watched it too! Despite them showing most of Scotland white on their map he said its above 200m that would be getting the snow and lower levels sleet and cold rain.

[LomondSnowstorm]

there now saying only hill snow on the bbc

Confusing, MO forecasts look quite good, albeit supposedly rain for Edinburgh (of course being Edinburgh it'll go from rain at the very coast to snow for higher up parts, or somewhere along that spectrum).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/falkland-palace-and-garden#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358035200

Only one bit of sleet on that and the rest is solid snow, with snow popping up right through to Wednesday for Falkland.

yep just watched it too! Despite them showing most of Scotland white on their map he said its above 200m that would be getting the snow and lower levels sleet and cold rain.

Was this the regional or the UK forecast?

[EastLothianSnow]

By midnight, temperatures still between 0C and 2C everywhere.

This is exactly the upgrade we needed, it wasn't huge but it's just enough for what would be a big snowfall for the east coast.

Interestingly this is also an upgrade for everywhere else since the front is more active and would give significant snowfall to all of England and even into Wales too now. The warning is bound to be put back on for tomorrow's snow if this is still present in the 18Zs.

Don't post here too often but am a regular viewer of the forum, cracking place to be with so many laughs as well as expert opinions, a brilliant read, it never fails. Couldn't be a more interesting time to be on the forum either!!

LS - Love reading your view on matters, particularly like the sound of this upgrade for the next few days snow! I am in Prestonpans, East Lothian so pretty close to the forth. Do you reckon this upgrade is enough to get me some snowfall in the next few days? Must say I have been expecting rain/sleet but would love to see some snow!

Cheers

[over_the_rainbow]

It was the Scottish regional LS on BBC 1, just before the UK weather update on regular BBC.

[snow1975]

there now saying only hill snow on the bbc

Looking at the charts, a westerly flow develops and uppers rise to -4C (warm sector?) so I wouldn't be surprised to sleet rather than snow for the bulk of us.

[Allyw12]

Confusing, MO forecasts look quite good, albeit supposedly rain for Edinburgh (of course being Edinburgh it'll go from rain at the very coast to snow for higher up parts, or somewhere along that spectrum).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/falkland-palace-and-garden#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358035200

Only one bit of sleet on that and the rest is solid snow, with snow popping up right through to Wednesday for Falkland.

Was this the regional or the UK forecast?

I caught tail end of Scottish weather they had Snow for the 1st band but 2nd the showed coming in that was all and I think they said something along the lines of not 100% sure in regards to Snow, please correct me if I'm wrong

[skyeblue]

Simple ///////council dropping off salt in side streets here

Snaw incoming

[LomondSnowstorm]

It was the Scottish regional LS on BBC 1, just before the UK weather update on regular BBC.

Ahh, that makes sense, they're usually running on the older data and that's the language the earlier weather warning used. It might still be right mind you, just impossible to say at the moment. NMM looked suspect with a much larger warm sector situated further north than on other models but we're all really in the dark on this one. No paint until after the 18Zs I'm afraid and even then it'll be very much broad brush...

[asjmcguire]

BordersWeather reporting for duty!

T: -0.4'C

DP: -1.1

[Buriedundersnow]

Confusing, MO forecasts look quite good, albeit supposedly rain for Edinburgh (of course being Edinburgh it'll go from rain at the very coast to snow for higher up parts, or somewhere along that spectrum).

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358035200

Only one bit of sleet on that and the rest is solid snow, with snow popping up right through to Wednesday for Falkland.

Was this the regional or the UK forecast?

it was only the uk one i caught

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looking at the charts, a westerly flow develops and uppers rise to -4C (warm sector?) so I wouldn't be surprised to sleet rather than snow for the bulk of us.

Yes, the NAE has this too, it's just a case of whether the front occludes before reaching the east coast or not. If it does, then we should keep uppers around -5C for the entire time and keep the band just about as snow:

The lack of wind will probably help also as the milder air won't get mixed in so readily. Could easily go the other way though, or in fact if the front occludes faster then we could have an all snow event for central and inland western parts too.

[karimac]

Crikey! This is gonna give us all heart failure! Cant help but feel ive jinxed it guys sorry, cudnt find other shovel, so got one from work the day. I did it get it on sale or return tho lol! MIN can it no just flippn snaw! I think id be content with a tiny wee bit the nite, at least id be able to sleep after id seen it! Sum fab post LS, thanks for keepn us all informed n as sane as we can get lol

[asjmcguire]

Reporting Scotland forecast available online for anyone who hasn't seen it - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/td10 (updated 17:39)

[GraemeB]

Forget lamppost watching, I'm watching my gritters.

http://my.stirling.gov.uk/gritters/live

[asjmcguire]

and don't worry Scottish members, it wasn't any of us that jinxed it - it was Argos when they started sending emails telling people they should be buying sledges.....

Forget lamppost watching, I'm watching my gritters.

http://my.stirling.g...k/gritters/live

There's one here too - http://trafficscotland.org/wintertreatment/

[M1245]

Yes, the NAE has this too, it's just a case of whether the front occludes before reaching the east coast or not. If it does, then we should keep uppers around -5C for the entire time and keep the band just about as snow:

The lack of wind will probably help also as the milder air won't get mixed in so readily. Could easily go the other way though, or in fact if the front occludes faster then we could have an all snow event for central and inland western parts too.

Those charts clearly show snow over the fife area while BBC forecasts say sleet? Confused.

[skifreak]

There is a potential issue for low level snow if it persists in that there is a band of milder air sitting over at least parts of the Highlands. It's -2c at 2500ft on CairnGorm Mountain and -4c in Aviemore at present, but it is +2c at 1100ft at Glenmore (and there was no frost present in Glenmore this afternoon in stark contrast to Aviemore which was all white with the frost that persisted all day). Coming back to Inverness it was below zero most of the way North to the Slochd junction, then the temperature jumped from about -2 to +1c, from the otherside of the Slochd Summit intermittently yo-yo'd back and for around Daviot and the top of Drummosie Brae was >0 but it's freezing in Inverness.

At the moment some areas look primed for a freezing rain risk?