Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

I wouldnt worry Jayne, plenty of opportunities this week. Tonight for some showers, wednesday morning and if the ECM and UKMO are right then Friday could be even better! So dont lose hope yet, even though i know we dont get snow in pembs Temp 4.9c max last night. Now 2.8 and falling

Doesn't snow here often at all Bradythemole, but I'm originally from Milford haven and its even less likely there! We have seen it in kilgetty in the past and not a flake in MH

BBC weather map looks like its missing us altogether so I shall live in hope x

same here jayne not a flake between 12pm sunday and present! off topic I know but my two best friends live in Kilgetty, they run the RAOB.

Don't go to the RAOB here but I'm just up the road from it

Edited January 14, 2013 by Jayne aka Pembsgal

[Bafan]

Really hate waking up and most of the snow washed away. Grrrr :-(

[bradymk]

Doesn't snow here often at all Bradythemole, but I'm originally from Milford haven and its even less likely there! We have seen it in kilgetty in the past and not a flake in MH

BBC weather map looks like its missing us altogether so I shall live in hope x

Don't go to the RAOB here but I'm just up the road from it

Both ECM and UKMO suggesting the risk of a big snowfall event for friday, even for pembrokeshire but obviously confidence low. Yes im from hwest and even though we probably get more than you down there, its a rare sight for sure. Preseli's are white this morning however

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

Might have to take a trip up the mountains then teehee

[worldairgroup]

Doesn't snow here often at all Bradythemole, but I'm originally from Milford haven and its even less likely there! We have seen it in kilgetty in the past and not a flake in MH

BBC weather map looks like its missing us altogether so I shall live in hope x

Don't go to the RAOB here but I'm just up the road from it

Aggh my mates and I go to Kilgetty once a week from Pontypridd, for a few pints, food and get together with them, different surroundings for a change! In the summer lods of us go camping down there. Love the place, your lucky to live there (apart from the lack of snow!!)

[Coast]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #072

ISSUED: 1645UTC SUNDAY 13th JANUARY 2013 (SG/GJ/GS/SM)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

ALL OF ENGLAND WALES CENTRAL AND EASTERN SCOTLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 0600UTC TUESDAY 15TH JANUARY 2013

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: HEAVY SNOW...ICE

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND INTER-AGENCY AWARENESS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING S/SE OVER THE UNITED KINGDOM WITHIN THE TIMESCALE SPECIFIED. AS THE LOW TRANSITS THROUGH THE COUNTRY AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSH SE MEETING THE COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE, SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR PROVIDING SOME HEAVY FALLS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 2-5CM AT LOWER LEVELS ALTHOUGH 5-10CM IS LIKELY ABOVE 200-300 METERS.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

[Carl46Wrexham]

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

Two key words are missing from that warning : - HEAVY RAIN.

It is bucketing down here.Temperature is still rising, up to 4.1c now.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Carl46Wrexham

[TonyH]

Heavy snow now parts of the Midlands. Does nt help us but worth a mention.

[marclt]

Both ECM and UKMO suggesting the risk of a big snowfall event for friday, even for pembrokeshire but obviously confidence low. Yes im from hwest and even though we probably get more than you down there, its a rare sight for sure. Preseli's are white this morning however

I can report that up on the Pembs / Carms border last night there were at least some snowflakes before the main band of rain. It helps being 700ft up above the sea and inland I guess!

[DeepSnow]

Had some heavy rain here today and the wind has picked up, I hope for snow showers tonight!! Typical that back home got snow just after I moved back to uni haha oh well.

[soupsurfer7]

If this comes off I'll eat my hat!

[marclt]

Looks good, doesn't it? But my concern is how quickly it will pass over and what follows behind it? More rain?! Would be better if it slid south eastwards. Not allowing any milder air to come in behind it.

[Stevetynant]

One of the latest posts on the model threads - its pretty much what I'm building myself up for - just gotta hold the nerve before publishing to the rest of work and then becoming the local pariah as we sit in drizzle next Monday

" I think the SE is going to do best out of this cold snap/spell with the north and west becoming dry and sunny for a while but with severe frosts and widespread ice days, snow showers look isolated apart from down the eastern side of the uk and mainly for east anglia and the southeast BUT by friday the west could be in the battlezone with heavy rain from the atlantic hitting the cold air and turning readily to snow, the angle of the attack will be crucial as to whether it's a swift snow to rain event or if the jet can be more southerly tracking, a slider low/undercut would then bring white out conditions to much of the uk, the like of which we haven't seen for years, potentially it's very exciting by fri/sat, relatively quiet but very cold until then after todays/tonights snow in the south and east apart from east coastal snow showers.

Edited by Frosty039, "

[dyl232]

Which day is this? Cant open it on mob..

If this comes off I'll eat my hat!

[124alex]

If this comes off I'll eat my hat!

Look at the stuff in the east :o

[soupsurfer7]

Which day is this? Cant open it on mob..

Friday.

[gareth moo]

Snow on the French Atlantic Coast way south for Wed. That's got to be pretty unusual.

With a weaker block, would we be getting some of this?

[marclt]

If this comes off I'll eat my hat!

I'm always a little confused with these charts. Do the coloured areas just simply suggest where it could rain/snow rather than a firm indication of actual precipitation..

[keithlucky]

If this comes off I'll eat my hat!

You may have to old Derek on BBC Wales said snow Friday. Edited January 14, 2013 by keithlucky

[welshwizard]

I'm always a little confused with these charts. Do the coloured areas just simply suggest where it could rain/snow rather than a firm indication of actual precipitation..

I remember these charts from last year, i don't think what it showed every happened. it feels mild out today and if the temps don't drop by a lot there is no way will any battle be over wales. I got a gut feeling this will pass through wales as rain and then turn to snow the further east it gets just as has happened today and many times in the past. fingers crossed I am wrong and we hammered by the biggest blizzard ever ha ha but I got a feeling we going to have a pretty s..t.y winter in Wales. just like our summer was very very wet.

[marclt]

he did also mention the word rain. We're so far out in this scenario anything could happen.

[Bonjangle]

So when is this Severe snap of winter coming? as its dam mild outside and even the SNOW from last nights dismal array has melted on Twmbarlwm mountain .

Edited January 14, 2013 by Aquastarmist

[welshwizard]

is it me or is this cold spell not cold? my son just come in and said its nice out dad, I asked him if he found it cold and he said no its nice out. I also feel that its quite warm for winter. even last night when snow was falling it didn't feel that cold, so is this cold spell just colder than the very mild we been having or is it going to get much colder?

[keithlucky]

he did also mention the word rain. We're so far out in this scenario anything could happen.

Could see a covering of snow tonight especially North and east Wales ,showers could N Wales a few cms,Concerning Friday possible snow we would better chance of snow then because some extreme hard frosts by then with some rural spots reaching -10 Wednesday Thursday the front will struggle to get eastwards across Wales and it could well give us what we have wanted all winter a good covering of the white stuff.

[marclt]

The cold rampers have had us up the garden path. The milder weather isn't that far away to our west, hence the conditions here don't seem to be that cold. The -3 predicted last night, turned out to be +3 here.

Although it was cold during the day, the easterly flow doesn't seen to be entrenched enough. A north/nw'ly delivers better for Wales, with showers off the Irish sea penetrating inland. Friday will be interesting - make or break for a snowy spell in Wales.