Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[coffee lover]

Convection building out to the east.....

[SunnySouthCoast]

4.8C here a minimum overnight of 3.1C

[SupaSnowy]

4.8C here a minimum overnight of 3.1C

Lovely warm southsea haha, wonder if you will get a night time dusting.

[divadee]

3.4 here and dew point of -2.

[gottolovethisweather]

This scenario has really been on the cards for the last 24 hours to be fair - no surprise.

I would also add, no surprise either, to see things trend the other way too.

[AWD]

If we work to the basic layman's formula that 1mm of rainfall equates to 1cm of snowfall, we can see from the NMM accumulated PPN totals below;

that by 3am Monday morning (up until this point all PPN should be snow away from coastal areas) that 3mm of PPN as fallen across the spine of the West Country. Taking into effect local nuances, urban affects, upland slopes etc then I would plump for the following by the early hours of Monday;

Bristol/Bath/Gloucester/Wells/Shepton Mallet: 1cm - 3cm of snowfall

Swindon/Chippenham/Cirencester/Salisbury: 1cm - 2cm of snowfall

Mendips/Cotswolds/Forest of Dean/Exmoor/Dartmoor/Wiltshire uplands; 3cm - 5cm of snowfall

That would be my basic, educated guess based solely on the high res NMM model.

[iowpompeylee]

Convection building out to the east.....

very cold on the iow too...maybe a isolated snow shower ? Is it showing up on radar?

[Mark Parsons]

Anyone in North Dorset experiencing a snow shower ? Netweather radar is showing some echos!!

[island lad]

very cold on the iow too...maybe a isolated snow shower ? Is it showing up on radar?

I'm in Arreton mate, really not holding out any hope for snow on the iow . maybe wrong though.

[Mapantz]

Anyone in North Dorset experiencing a snow shower ? Netweather radar is showing some echos!!

They're probably ano-props.

[iowpompeylee]

I'm in Arreton mate, really not holding out any hope for snow on the iow . maybe wrong though.

it's usually the times they don't give it.then it happens....fingers crossed.with the temps as cold as they are this week.there could always be the odd spell. Edited January 13, 2013 by iowpompeylee

[SunnySouthCoast]

Lovely warm southsea haha, wonder if you will get a night time dusting.

I wont be holding my breath lol

It's 5.0C now with a dp of 0.9C so at least the dp's are heading down

[ShastonMC]

Anyone in North Dorset experiencing a snow shower ? Netweather radar is showing some echos!!

Not a drop in Shaftesbury!!!!!!!!!!! Sunny and cold.

[Bristawl Si]

I would also add, no surprise either, to see things trend the other way too.

No chance.

A few hours of light snow later tonight and that'll be it before it turns to rain, until end of week....possibly.

Maybe, just maybe, a few flurries midweek if an easterly sets in.

Edit: love to be proved wrong though.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Bristle boy

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm in Arreton mate, really not holding out any hope for snow on the iow . maybe wrong though.

Welcome aboard island lad, can please update your profile to show your location as you state.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

No chance.

A few hours of light snow later tonight and that'll be it before it turns to rain, until end of week....possibly.

Maybe, just maybe, a few flurries midweek if an easterly sets in.

Thanks again bristle boy for your info. Much appreciated and good luck with your own location.

[Sungirl]

Temp dropping pretty quick here. Down to 2.6c now with a DP of -0.2c.

please can someone remind me the relevence of the DP? (i learned all this last winter but forgot )

TY

[Bristawl Si]

Thanks again bristle boy for your info. Much appreciated and good luck with your own location.

Dont think there's much chance of any of our extended region getting anyhing more than a few hours of light snow this evening/tom morning.

And my original post was NOT only referring to my locality either.

[MP-R]

Latest countyfile weekly forecast, hope for us in the SW later on in the week, chance of a front moving in against the cold on friday.

I wish the BBC wouldn't show snow graphics at the same time as temperatures which are too high for frontal snow.

[gottolovethisweather]

Dont think there's much chance of any of our extended region getting anyhing more than a few hours of light snow this evening/tom morning.

And my original post was NOT only referring to my locality either.

Fair enough but I take the above as something very positive, albeit it may turn to rain for a brief period too.

I'll bite your hand off and so will many for what you have stated above.

Moving on through the week, I expect things to get progressively colder or at least stay as they are, which is largely snow producing synoptics.

[iowpompeylee]

I'd happily take a snow flurry any day.

[SupaSnowy]

I'd happily take a snow flurry any day.

I think we are almost certain for a little bit tonight, I think we would be really unlucky if we didn't.

[Bristawl Si]

Might be worth reading this from one of Ian's tweets this morning:

"West Country: Small accumulations (1-2cm) likely and more especially anywhere 150m plus. Melting readily Mon AM as wet weather arrives".

Ties in with Matt Taylor forecast this lunchtime on BBC.

A wintry mix this week for all of our region, better chance of snow showers further East you are, esp Newbury, Reading area. Prob drier in West, until Friday when 'West meets East' again......maybe.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Bristle boy

[wightwootton]

I'm in Arreton mate, really not holding out any hope for snow on the iow . maybe wrong though.

Being on the North side of Arreton downs , we always seem to have a better chance of snow here at Wootton. I think this happened 2/2.5 years ago!

Showing 4c here at the moment.

[cerneman]

Temp dropping back to 3,4 If after our little mild blip passes through, and cold can deepen over next few days, would think Friday be better prospects for some in our region,