Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Like I said once we get that snow cover then the band on Monday could well tip the balance in their favour in the areas in question, ie Bristol area . The second band is likely to be heavier aswell

[124alex]

Rain here Temp: 6c Dewpoint: 4c

[Nights King]

The trend is my best mate currently.

My sanity hangs on by a thread...

I do hope we don't end up chasing a snawfall that is always one or two days away only to find each is downgraded like todays..

[TwisterGirl81]

Good morning! Well the charts are looking a little more favourable for the southwest (not so much for Cornwall and West Devon)....I hope this changes and it just goes slightly more west!

But I'm very please with the graphs this morning....

[karlos1983]

i love the weather the IOW gets apparently it can get quite nasty there sometimes but exciting.

Not arf!! I had the pleasure if being there for the iow festival last year, and oh my word! It wasn't your typical summer weekend!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Brilliant forecast on bbc 24 , showed snow tmoz eve , he said cause a few probs , then showed a big area of snow Monday pushing over the country , the only place that had rain was the far southwest.

[AWD]

Brilliant forecast on bbc 24 , showed snow tmoz eve , he said cause a few probs , then showed a big area of snow Monday pushing over the country , the only place that had rain was the far southwest.

I take it these BBC forecasts are based on the 0z model data?

I can never remember how long it takes for the BBC to update their TV forecasts after new model data.

[Beast of Plympton]

I seem to remember, think it was 2009 that a battleground situation over the A38 in Devon was forecast only hours before. Caused 8 hours of traffic on telegraph hill because nobody knew it was coming.

Just goes to show how unpredictable things can be sometimes. Fingers crossed for the same, minus the traffic!

Clouds looking a little snowy. BBC and Netweather have some snow forecast over higher ground in Dartmoor tomorrow into Monday morning.

[Beast of Plympton]

Brilliant forecast on bbc 24 , showed snow tmoz eve , he said cause a few probs , then showed a big area of snow Monday pushing over the country , the only place that had rain was the far southwest.

How far southwest are we talking SSIB??

[cerneman]

I take it these BBC forecasts are based on the 0z model data?

I can never remember how long it takes for the BBC to update their TV forecasts after new model data.

Seems to be rather better update, Think when forecasters change they update forecast after there pre shift briefing

[Dave Kightley]

Bbc forecasts are wrong then. look at Nae and fax chart?

[Karl83]

So looking ok then for us westies. I think a radar upgrade subscription is in order.

Gotta say, the wind is rather strong this morning.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Karl83

[Nights King]

Have some heavier ppn moving close to me now...

Will it turn sleety or is it just too early we shall see

[gottolovethisweather]

Seems to be rather better update,

Probably just following the general trend from the more reliable 12z output, across the board and tweaking things where needed. I suggest we all wait for the next upgrade come this late afternoons update.

I think there is too much overanalysis going on in here right now. Look at the trend, not at individual runs, compare like with like.

Here's my post from earlier once again, cerneman, if you missed it.

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2483069

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Bbc forecasts are wrong then. look at Nae and fax chart?

Rather bold statement to make although I think I see where you're coming from.

The NAE we see is the raw output, this gets modified by Exeter, so for all we know, it COULD of been modified west.

FAX chart is very marginal, admittedly. Awaiting Ian's thoughts on Monday.

[gottolovethisweather]

Have some heavier ppn moving close to me now...

Will it turn sleety or is it just too early we shall see

Not yet mull, I'm afraid.

[rowieboyz]

I seem to remember, think it was 2009 that a battleground situation over the A38 in Devon was forecast only hours before. Caused 8 hours of traffic on telegraph hill because nobody knew it was coming.

Just goes to show how unpredictable things can be sometimes. Fingers crossed for the same, minus the traffic!

Clouds looking a little snowy. BBC and Netweather have some snow forecast over higher ground in Dartmoor tomorrow into Monday morning.

Mate I think we reall y need the colder air to shift further west or it will be sleet/cold rain even at our altitude, I could be wrong but that's the way it looks to me. It might turn out like the 2009 event you speak of which gave us up here our biggest snowfall for years.

Jase

[chris55]

Like I said once we get that snow cover then the band on Monday could well tip the balance in their favour in the areas in question, ie Bristol area . The second band is likely to be heavier aswell

You in the Cotswolds SS? With the sigs gone I can't quite remember. If so whereabouts and how high up?

I'm in Stroud approx 80m up, but live hallway up a hill which goes to approx 190m. Although there is still much uncertainty and forecasting snow is always a nightmare we are not badly placed in our region..

[Nights King]

Not yet mull, I'm afraid.

Hey don't.... close to breaking point here

No I don't expect to see any changes if at all until 3pm ish although I am so tired the last few days have taken their toll.

[Dampdorset82]

Brilliant forecast on bbc 24 , showed snow tmoz eve , he said cause a few probs , then showed a big area of snow Monday pushing over the country , the only place that had rain was the far southwest.

it looks like hampshire east and a line north and east of that. I count Dorset as central southern england and we have rain also

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

You in the Cotswolds SS? With the sigs gone I can't quite remember. If so whereabouts and how high up?

I'm in Stroud approx 80m up, but live hallway up a hill which goes to approx 190m. Although there is still much uncertainty and forecasting snow is always a nightmare we are not badly placed in our region..

Yes I'm near northleach , do you know where that is? About 700ft Absl .

The bbc showed snow past Bristol if I remeber rightly , as in west of Bristol , we will wait till later .

[Dampdorset82]

^{Rain here in Poole temps 6.9c currently............lovely}

[chris55]

I seem to remember, think it was 2009 that a battleground situation over the A38 in Devon was forecast only hours before. Caused 8 hours of traffic on telegraph hill because nobody knew it was coming.

Just goes to show how unpredictable things can be sometimes. Fingers crossed for the same, minus the traffic!

Clouds looking a little snowy. BBC and Netweather have some snow forecast over higher ground in Dartmoor tomorrow into Monday morning.

This is so true, on many occasions once the cold air is in place, snow pops up at short notice. I remember a few occasions where this has happened. The good thing about next week is we have some very cold air in the mix, progressively getting colder as we head through the week, we do have milder segments but I'm sure many will see snow at some point.

[Beast of Plympton]

Mate I think we reall y need the colder air to shift further west or it will be sleet/cold rain even at our altitude, I could be wrong but that's the way it looks to me. It might turn out like the 2009 event you speak of which gave us up here our biggest snowfall for years.

Jase

I remember you metioned the 2009 event, wish I was here for that!! Guess we can just hope, wait, and see.

[Evening thunder]

Hi Snowmad, sounds good.... where can I find this radar?

Hi, the Netweather free radar should have it, if you click on the little link to the latest UK radar on the left of the homepage, then there's an option at the top to turn on the 'social radar' which is just reports from twitter overlain on the radar image

Re your mention of the river rising quickly (which river are you referring to, BTW, as I'm East Devon born and bred), some roads around me are starting to flood already, after just a few hours' light-ish rain. The ground is just so saturated. Some fields have been permanently flooded for over 4 months now.

The River Otter is the one I mean, our house is about 100m from it so can see it, well it's probably closer now as it's been eroding this way recently!

surprised how high it has risen with this rain really, there may have been a bit more rain up river though. Anyway nothing of too much concern Re flooding just high with a lot of very muddy water going down it, unless we get more frequent heavy showers all day. It shows how the ground still doesn't want any water and sends it straight to the rivers

Blimey that is a long time to be flooded! I travelled down on train on Thursday and some rivers were high and fields waterlogged/partly flooded still. Didn't see the Somerset Levels though as it was dark by then. That doesn't tend happen too much around here as the rivers here rise, flood and start falling notably within a day usually, remarkable how different geology/geography can effect things with some smallish rivers I saw from the train still very high weeks later.