Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[Polar Bear]

Down to an AT of 2.7c now, the odd sleety flake blowing in the wind.

DP 1.9c and the wind has backed towards the ENE now.

NEWBURY, BERKSHIRE

Every now and then though GTLTW there is a short burst of large snow flakes. Most odd. If I look out of one window onto the street I can't see it but look out the back gardens and I can..

Good to know about the temps I did think it had dropped in the last hour or so.

[gottolovethisweather]

A look through the model output this morning and we have another, potentially more encouraging event, Monday night into Tuesday. After the rain/snow clears away Monday, we will have a dry period, then later on, as the FAX chart shows below;

There is a wrap around occlusion sat to the NW of Scotland, south of Iceland at this timeframe. As the main band of PPN clears to the SE, colder air starts to dig back west as shown by the models below;

This could provide a period of moderately heavy snowfall for us all. The UKMO would produce some significant snowfall, the GFS makes a little less of the feature but still would give this;

With this possible event, there is a much larger margin for error currently as the cold air is well embedded by then.

This could be our one to watch if Mondays event doesn't come up trumps. Plenty of good potential next week.

Nice one, event one on my ensembles analysis post, now looking as though it is being picked up by the MetO.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Dave Kightley]

A look through the model output this morning and we have another, potentially more encouraging event, Monday night into Tuesday. After the rain/snow clears away Monday, we will have a dry period, then later on, as the FAX chart shows below;

There is a wrap around occlusion sat to the NW of Scotland, south of Iceland at this timeframe. As the main band of PPN clears to the SE, colder air starts to dig back west as shown by the models below;

This could provide a period of moderately heavy snowfall for us all. The UKMO would produce some significant snowfall, the GFS makes a little less of the feature but still would give this;

With this possible event, there is a much larger margin for error currently as the cold air is well embedded by then.

This could be our one to watch if Mondays event doesn't come up trumps. Plenty of good potential next week.

Never noticed that mate lol Nice one

[gottolovethisweather]

The first signs of the colder air incoming big time now. I should have guessed as much about the likelihood of some snowflakes and colder air, when I was watching the birds in the back garden, about an hour and a half ago. Ten plus Goldfinches, two Greenfinches, two Starling, three Robins, six Blackbirds, Song Thrush and Nuthatch amongst the species going mental in a much increased feeding frenzy, was really all I needed to know.

[Wilxy]

Definatly a wintry mix out there.

[Mark Parsons]

Currently overcast here in Stroud, 5.2c humidity is down to 68 and falling DP -0.2c.

Would/could sleet/snow fall with a DP below 0 even though the temp is 5+? Sorry if this is a silly question I'm still learning

Thanks

Yes I beleive it can........

[gottolovethisweather]

Currently overcast here in Stroud, 5.2c humidity is down to 68 and falling DP -0.2c.

Would/could sleet/snow fall with a DP below 0 even though the temp is 5+? Sorry if this is a silly question I'm still learning

Thanks

Not sure actually, but something is wrong with those readings, here's why I think so.

http://answers.yahoo...07181714AAOMTgC

Don't worry about that for now but I suggest you should find a lamp-post by the time it gets dark.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Jason74]

Really wouldn't get too despondent. We really won't know for certain until tomorrow what is going to happen on Monday's/Tuesday's event.

Even if that doesn't produce the goods the odds are on for an even colder spell later in the month and going into February. Still plenty of time this winter for us all to get some snowfall. Patience (and a bit of faith) is the key

[dancing daisy]

The first signs of the colder air incoming big time now. I should have guessed as much about the likelihood of some snowflakes and colder air, when I was watching the birds in the back garden, about an hour and a half ago. Ten plus Goldfinches, two Greenfinches, two Starling, three Robins, six Blackbirds, Song Thrush and Nuthatch amongst the species going mental in a much increased feeding frenzy, was really all I needed to know.

and a partridge in a pear tree.

It's very cold outside here now, gusty wind and rain. Very unpleasant weather. Apparently 6c but it feels a lot colder.

[bellanite]

Thanks it was more curiosity than anything else.

Found this DP calculator which some people might find interesting.

http://www.dpcalc.org/

will have my eyes glued to the lamp-post outside my house most of next week by the looks of it.

[gottolovethisweather]

and a partridge in a pear tree.

It's very cold outside here now, gusty wind and rain. Very unpleasant weather. Apparently 6c but it feels a lot colder.

Watch it miss Daisy.

Seriously, when these events are imminent you can often watch nature react to it as they are the first to sense the changes in the atmosphere.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Gas Ed]

Starting to feel pretty raw out there now the sun's going down & the wind is picking up, although the temp is still a balmy 4.2! (down from todays max of 4.7)

My heart is still ruling my head a bit with the next few days prospects. Let's hope the heart prevails!!

I guess it's time to chill for a bit before the up's & down's of the 12z rollercoaster lol

[karlos1983]

6.1C occasional rain in West Parley, Dorset. Pretty dull, hope things get better, was expecting it to be cooler by now?

[Mapantz]

Having a proper couple of downpours here, that rain with hardly any space between drops? :lol:

It's bumping my total up fast now, 20mm so far.

I am slightly surprised there's no warning out for it, reports coming in of flooded roads all over the place.

[Polar Bear]

Watch it miss Daisy.

Seriously, when these events are imminent you can often watch nature react to it as they are the first to sense the changes in the atmosphere.

GTLTW I was going post the same sort of observations about birds. They have been chatting madly this avo by next doors feeders and a cheeky little I think pied wagtail came up to me. And I saw great tit I think as well as a few others. Probably seeking out morcels of food no doubt..

[dec10snow]

and a partridge in a pear tree.

It's very cold outside here now, gusty wind and rain. Very unpleasant weather. Apparently 6c but it feels a lot colder.

Yep, 6C here aswell apparently... That may have cleared up my thoughts about sleet, maybe just rain then at this higher temperature?

[windseeker]

I have a nasty feeling that this up and coming cold spell, has been over hyped once again, by many in the model forums and the press. Hopefully wrong but it seems to get pushed back and downgraded the closer we get. If the forums were to be believed last Thursday we were being told that today we would be snow bound. Had a bit of sleet at times today but not sure we will get much more than that.

[gottolovethisweather]

Attached is the latest radar imagery from the netweather v6 radar, overlaid with UPPER AIR profiles.

The area to note is where the darkest green colouration meets the blue colouration, this is where the SNOW is more or less guaranteed. It is currently sleet/wet snow in the darkest green 529DAM (?) region.

This whole area is slowly but surely shifting towards this region.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Gibby]

Just a few sleety bits hitting the window pane and melting instantly in a heavy outbreak of rain here currently. Temperature falling back steadily. Currently 3.4C with a dew point of 2.9C. 1 more degree to drop and things could begin to turn if the precipitation holds up.

[karlos1983]

I have a nasty feeling that this up and coming cold spell, has been over hyped once again, by many in the model forums and the press. Hopefully wrong but it seems to get pushed back and downgraded the closer we get. If the forums were to be believed last Thursday we were being told that today we would be snow bound. Had a bit of sleet at times today but not sure we will get much more than that.

I'm afraid I have to disagree

@fergieweather: "@metofficeSWEng: Yellow Alert of Snow for SW England : Gloucestershire valid from 1500 Sun 13 Jan to 2355 Sun 13 Jan http://t.co/2Xx2iwvl"

[iowpompeylee]

I have a nasty feeling that this up and coming cold spell, has been over hyped once again, by many in the model forums and the press. Hopefully wrong but it seems to get pushed back and downgraded the closer we get. If the forums were to be believed last Thursday we were being told that today we would be snow bound. Had a bit of sleet at times today but not sure we will get much more than that.

don't say that.i just got advised by John Holmes that I was wrong by suggesting in the mod output thread.that the ECM had swung around and the temps on the south coast are rising on my area to what they were a few days go.im still hopeful of some snow for us though. Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather
edited to save us from any backlash

[kev238]

Perhaps you should listen to what the met office is saying then, as at no point have they ever stated anyone would be snowbound by today.

Furthermore, this region has never appeared to be in the forefront of snow predictions by the professionals at the met office for Sunday night or Monday.

Yes there is a chance, but it is not a definite and even with that chance, amounts will be small for the south west.

Edited January 12, 2013 by kev238

[cerneman]

The first signs of the colder air incoming big time now. I should have guessed as much about the likelihood of some snowflakes and colder air, when I was watching the birds in the back garden, about an hour and a half ago. Ten plus Goldfinches, two Greenfinches, two Starling, three Robins, six Blackbirds, Song Thrush and Nuthatch amongst the species going mental in a much increased feeding frenzy, was really all I needed to know.

Nuthatch loves storing there food, Must be out replenishing his Larder, They like hiding there food behind tree bark, trouble is the woodpecker also knows this,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Back to Weather, still raining here, Temps dropped back little 5.1c but feels colder in wind, [ Hope my temp gauge now correct]

[Sainsbo]

No precip here of any kind. DP is very low (0.2C), and the temp is only 3.6C, so I'm anxious to see what falls.

[theprophecyman]

I'm afraid I have to disagree

@fergieweather: "@metofficeSWEng: Yellow Alert of Snow for SW England : Gloucestershire valid from 1500 Sun 13 Jan to 2355 Sun 13 Jan http://t.co/2Xx2iwvl"

Would be nice to see the Yellow Alert extended for further parts of the SW, rather than the further NE point for our region, still time I guess??