Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[dec10snow]

Yes it was drizzle one min then I looked out of the window and its snowing but very light and intermitent. Could do with that bright echo on radar to move north and west a little.

What's your temp?

[textmum]

It is Snowing

Delighted for you Mullender, now if you could send it Gloucester way I would be mega happy! Currently dry here with cloudy sky, bitterly cold outside.

[noggin]

Mullender lives on the mendips so yes i expect it certainly is weve got sleet here.

Where are you exactly, Tom? There's nowt here in Coalpit Heath.

Dare I hope that there is something on it's way here?

[Nights King]

What's your temp?

currently 2.4c which is a little high and surprised me abit to be honest.

Heavy ppn moving closer so with a gradual drop and then evaporative cooling it would be nice to get those values lower.

[gottolovethisweather]

I don't especially like or advise commenting on one run in isolation, but the very early stages of the GFS 12z run suggests a brief period of back-edge SNOW tonight for a fair few of us.

I don't think there will be any accumulation, aside from those at favourable altitude.

My interpretation of it also hints at a period of light snowfall through tomorrow.

I am looking no further than this for now.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

Where are you exactly, Tom? There's nowt here in Coalpit Heath.

Dare I hope that there is something on it's way here?

Near to mendip golf course

Back to drizzle and sleet... come on get me that heavy ppn!

Edited January 12, 2013 by mullender83

[AWD]

In terms of Monday, both the NAE and GFS show a snow - rain event for many of us now. GFS quite pronounced with its "mild sector" again.

NAE doesn't go out no further, so it will be interesting to see what the GFS does with the third front after the mild sector has passed.

GFS starts Monday as snow, changes to rain through the middle of the day, then back to snow again for eastern counties before it clears, as the cold air digs back in.

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD

[Beast of Plympton]

I don't especially like or advise commenting on one run, but the very early stages of the GFS 12z run suggests a brief period of back-edge SNOW tonight for a fair few of us.

I don't think there will be any accumulation, aside from those at favourable altitude.

My interpretation of it also hints at a period of light snowfall through tomorrow.

I am looking no further than this for now.

Sorry to ask gottolovethisweather, bit of an IMBY question!

Do you think my area may be included in the fun? Location below.

[J10]

NAE looks a bit colder generally (in terms of 850HPa temps, thicknesses and dew points) and that initially increase snowfall over the region, however for the main part of the areas into Monday and the precipitation amounts are less, possibly

reducing snow depth potential. The exception being the far west (west Cornwall), where very heavy precipitation is possible.

Going from this, the warm sector is likely to be further SE on updated Fax charts later.

[Beasterly]

Light snow in Bath, Somerset.

Obvious not settling due to wet surfaces.

[AWD]

GFS looks tasty tomorrow night though;

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD

[Iceberg]

drove upto shaftesbury just now and on top of the hills a few sleety bits here and their so def getting colder.

[latitude]

3.6 here and dropping pretty quick.

Sunday night into early monday looks interesting before the rain arrives with warm section and -5 850's moving out of our region.

Still hoping for a push West with the 850's but not looking like it.

[dec10snow]

Light snow in Bath, Somerset.

Obvious not settling due to wet surfaces.

What!!? Can you send it a bit further west to Taunton maybe?

[Nights King]

huge flakes coming down now as the heavy ppn is edging closer...

Don't think it is going to settle though we may have to wait for sunday evening

[dec10snow]

drove upto shaftesbury just now and on top of the hills a few sleety bits here and their so def getting colder.

I think the met may have underestimated the temperature, with sleet being reported by us in a number of different places, but the met only mentioned sleet for the hills!

[mrsmall]

From mod thread....

#275 fergieweather

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Posted A minute ago

Now serious doubts re scope & evolution of second main snow band later Monday based on NAE extrapolation. Story tomorrow eve into Mon am remains consistent. Atlantic push more pronounced later Monday with early lying snow across west melting; rain atop it, out as far east as around Swindon (at least) with WBFL rising above 400m readily. Watch for further developments later this eve.

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[dec10snow]

huge flakes coming down now as the heavy ppn is edging closer...

Don't think it is going to settle though we may have to wait for sunday evening

Don't make me jealous!

[gottolovethisweather]

Sorry to ask gottolovethisweather, bit of an IMBY question!

Do you think my area may be included in the fun? Location below.

Based on very strict interepretation of how I view it, I would say no for tonight, but that depends on whether the output (dewpoint & precipitation prediction)matches the reality.

Keep checking the Temps, Dewpoints, radars and available lamp-posts. Having elevation on your side helps though.

[Gas Ed]

First signs of the wintry mix appearing here in North Bristol. Temp just sneaked under 3 degrees and turning more to snow as I type, though extremely sporadic & light.

Must be pretty damp on the South Coast as Bournemouth's match this afternoon may be abandoned & Pompey already postponed.

[Bumpkin]

Yes it was drizzle one min then I looked out of the window and its snowing but very light and intermitent. Could do with that bright echo on radar to move north and west a little.

I think that bright echo is whats been over us, heavy rain going to have more flooding issues at this rate.

[Chris K]

From mod thread....

#275 fergieweather

Members

415 posts

Posted A minute ago

Now serious doubts re scope & evolution of second main snow band later Monday based on NAE extrapolation. Story tomorrow eve into Mon am remains consistent. Atlantic push more pronounced later Monday with early lying snow across west melting; rain atop it, out as far east as around Swindon (at least) with WBFL rising above 400m readily. Watch for further developments later this eve.

Now it really does remind me of Feb 2012 Except this time I may be lucky to see a dusting before it melts whereas last year it was just slush that lasted an hour. We will see as it really is going to be a now-cast thing...

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Wow, great to see some of you have got some snow. Here's hoping it improves as the week goes on. Chucking it down with cold rain here on South Dartmoor!!

[Beast of Plympton]

Based on very strict interepretation of how I view it, I would say no for tonight, but that depends on whether the output (dewpoint & precipitation prediction)matches the reality.

Keep checking the Temps, Dewpoints, radars and available lamp-posts. Having elevation on your side helps though.

Thanks very much!! Very Helpful

[lfcdude]

From mod thread....

#275 fergieweather

Members

415 posts

Posted A minute ago

Now serious doubts re scope & evolution of second main snow band later Monday based on NAE extrapolation. Story tomorrow eve into Mon am remains consistent. Atlantic push more pronounced later Monday with early lying snow across west melting; rain atop it, out as far east as around Swindon (at least) with WBFL rising above 400m readily. Watch for further developments later this eve.

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Ian K. Fergusson

Twitter: @fergieweather

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Damn Will all melt then... Damn..Hope for a 50 mile west change...

Edited January 12, 2013 by lfcdude