Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[divadee]

Must be pretty damp on the South Coast as Bournemouth's match this afternoon may be abandoned & Pompey already postponed.

Yep it is. Pouring it down here now. Black outside and has been for nearly 2 hours.

Not cold enough for the white stuff to hit us. Pinning everything on Monday.

[gottolovethisweather]

NAE looks a bit colder generally (in terms of 850HPa temps, thicknesses and dew points) and that initially increase snowfall over the region, however for the main part of the areas into Monday and the precipitation amounts are less, possibly

reducing snow depth potential. The exception being the far west (west Cornwall), where very heavy precipitation is possible.

Going from this, the warm sector is likely to be further SE on updated Fax charts later.

The highlighted part of your statement is now becoming a real serious issue, if these developments do indeed come to fruition.

We should all be careful with this particular aspect as and when we are celebrating our snowflakes, others will indeed be much less fortunate and there is highly likely to be further flooding misery.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Beast of Plympton]

Wow, great to see some of you have got some snow. Here's hoping it improves as the week goes on. Chucking it down with cold rain here on South Dartmoor!!

In the same boat, or will be if it carries on raining lke this!

[A.J]

at face value hi-res output is not too clever for our neck of the woods on monday, even out here to the far east of the region) but, and it's a big but, local variances will play a huge role IMO (local elevation wet bulb/dewpoint temps etc etc)

Edited January 12, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[J10]

The highlighted part of your statement is now becoming a real serious issue, if these developments do indeed come to fruition.

We should all be careful with this particular aspect as and when we are celebrating our snowflakes, others will indeed be much less fortunate and there will be some potentail for further flooding misery.

Indeed and that far west likely to be all of rain as well.

[gottolovethisweather]

From mod thread....

#275 fergieweather

Members

415 posts

Posted A minute ago

Now serious doubts re scope & evolution of second main snow band later Monday based on NAE extrapolation. Story tomorrow eve into Mon am remains consistent. Atlantic push more pronounced later Monday with early lying snow across west melting; rain atop it, out as far east as around Swindon (at least) with WBFL rising above 400m readily. Watch for further developments later this eve.

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Ian K. Fergusson

Twitter: @fergieweather

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BATTLEGROUND EVENT NUMBER ONE, if not possibly number two or three and you know what, there will be more over the coming days and weeks.

This cold spell has some serious potential, you mark my words.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[A.J]

BATTLEGROUND EVENT NUMBER ONE, if possibly number two or three and you know what, there will be more over the coming days and weeks.

This cold spell has some serious potential, you mark my words.

early doors Tony, but in the reliable time frame, it's looking increasingly marginal even for us out to the east. Hopefully in the medium to longer term, the 12z outputs in all their guises give us the synoptics we crave!

Edited January 12, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[AWD]

Snow aside, at least the GFS 12z keeps us very cold for the next 144 hours with harsh frosts and ice/fog possible.

Still a lot more Wintery than the last few weeks.

Edited January 12, 2013 by AWD

[divadee]

I'm beginning to not worry about snow and just want this rain to stop.

It's horrible. Local areas are still very prone to flooding.

[AWD]

MAX temps midday at the end of next week still;

Very very cold!

[windseeker]

The GFS 12z, yet another downgrade, milder sector turning best of the precipitation Monday to rain. Only SE parts of England looking good now for a full snow event.... Disappointing.

[Sainsbo]

MAX temps midday at the end of next week still;

Very very cold!

That's a lot more exiting to see. Even if nothing comes of Mondays front, we could have many more chances to get something, and I think if a "battleground" scenario sets up again, the colder air may be more firmly in place and play to our advantage.

[offerman]

Heavy rain now changing to sleet here in frome.

[AWD]

The GFS 12z, yet another downgrade, milder sector turning best of the precipitation Monday to rain. Only SE parts of England looking good now for a full snow event.... Disappointing.

Downgrade for snow, upgrade for cold.

[iowpompeylee]

So ian fergusson is saying the Atlantic comes crashing through the door again....suprise suprise....

[Dean E]

GFS 12z is quite an upgrade for you guys in the far SW for Thursday onwards, could do pretty well with a SE'ly developing and a Low sitting across Northern France. Has snow showers written all over it.

Slight downgrade for snow chances on Monday as front 1 has a warm sector behind, with front 2 disappearing over to France. This evenings model runs will need watching carefully for the next 48 hours.

SM

[offerman]

Meteoric, weathered app is awesome, had rain on us they changed to sleet and now changing, radar precipitation type if so accurate, recommend getting it if you have iPhone iPad.

[AWD]

That's a lot more exiting to see. Even if nothing comes of Mondays front, we could have many more chances to get something, and I think if a "battleground" scenario sets up again, the colder air may be more firmly in place and play to our advantage.

I would love to have some snow, but if we can't have snow, this would be the next best scenario IMO.

Very very cold GFS run, ice days galore next week with harsh frosts.

[offerman]

Pompey, when did I.F downgrade this, on a tv bulletin? Atlantic crashing in for when?

[windseeker]

That's a lot more exiting to see. Even if nothing comes of Mondays front, we could have many more chances to get something, and I think if a "battleground" scenario sets up again, the colder air may be more firmly in place and play to our advantage.

At the moment the models are struggling to get events nailed sub 48hours, looking at the output for Thursday next week is setting yourself up for a fall...

[Sexki11en]

Light sleety rain just started here. I'd be very surprised if it doesn't turn to light snow, despite the lack of forecast for it (Ex Northern girl, used to "feeling" it coming)

[A.J]

So ian fergusson is saying the Atlantic comes crashing through the door again....suprise suprise....

he did not say anything of the sort...either post accurately, or don't post at all....the choice is yours

[J10]

GFS is a very good run for those wanting cold and snow to continue, admittedly the milder sector is more pronounced on GFS for Monday.

I have seen NAE (Weather online) and cannot see expanded warm sector on there, precipitation is less admittedly.

UKMO also looks very good for holding onto cold until at least T+144., end of run.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Jackone

[jethro]

I've been out all day so haven't caught up with the thread or the latest advice as to what we can expect tonight, but I can report it's snowing here! It's very wet snow and everywhere's soggy from the rain today/overnight so it's going to have to get a lot heavier to stand any chance of settling, but it is snow, not sleet.

[windseeker]

Downgrade for snow, upgrade for cold.

If it ain't going to Snow not much point it being cold. Quite happy to push 2inches of Snow off the car, scraping off frost is just depressing!!