Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

[AWD]

UKMO also very cold ala GFS for whole of next week.

Downgrades in snow potential unfortunetly, but good upgrades so far on cold potential.

[Sainsbo]

At the moment the models are struggling to get events nailed sub 48hours, looking at the output for Thursday next week is setting yourself up for a fall...

I'm not looking for specific details more than 24 hours out, but the general trend currently is that it will get bitterly cold, and possibly stay that way for a while.

[gottolovethisweather]

early doors Tony, but in the reliable time frame, it's looking increasingly marginal even for us out to the east. Hopefully in the medium to longer term, the 12z outputs in all their guises give us the synoptics we crave!

Yes AJ, but some of the progged cold for example, admittedly only applicable IF you fall on the right side of the battleground zones, you will see the projected depth of cold suggested. The sooner there is snowcover the better and most elements of the forecasting suites will simply have to modify things in our favour. Undeniably I could be in a very good locality but that is neither here nor there due to the uncertainty of where the BATTLEGROUND zone falls.

Check this out for the depth of entrenched cold potential and I urge others to also check their own location.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

Below is the current view from the MetO.

Headline:

Cold and frosty overnight, rain and snow in the northwest.

This Evening and Tonight:

A cold and frosty night across many parts, as outbreaks of rain and snow gradually clears the south giving the risk of icy stretches. Further rain and snow will spread southeastwards across western Scotland later.

Sunday:

Rain, and increasingly snow away from western coasts will continue to spread southeastwards, reaching Wales and the Midlands during the evening. Otherwise, dry, bright but cold with spells of sunshine.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Cloudy with snow in many areas on Monday, but rain in southwest. On Tuesday and Wednesday, many areas dry and bright, but frosty. Occasional wintry showers in east.

Issued at: 1600 on Sat 12 Jan 2013

The specifics will change at short range but I don't think the trend will go away.

Thereafter the period up to January 26th is even more of interest as I have suggested before. By then, the cold air will be deeply entrenched over a large part of the UK too. Here are the current feelings from the MetO at that range.

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2013 to Saturday 26 Jan 2013:

There remains a lot of uncertainty in the details throughout this period, however on the whole it should remain on the cold side across many parts of the United Kingdom, with a good deal of dry and frosty weather, especially for central areas. There will also be some sleet and snow to watch out for on occasion, with perhaps eastern areas most likely at risk seeing any significant snowfall. Also there will be an ongoing risk of icy stretches overnight, and freezing fog may also be an issue during the cold and clearer nights. Some milder conditions and more persistent rain and hill snow though may fringe into western areas on occasions throughout the period.

THIS SIMPLY SPELLS BATTLEGROUND UK to me. It has been a long time since such an awesome situation has set up, yet alone taken place. Bring it on I say.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Chris K]

I would love to have some snow, but if we can't have snow, this would be the next best scenario IMO.

Very very cold GFS run, ice days galore next week with harsh frosts.

Yes i agree Winter is more than just snow. I'd love to have some settling snow but some nice cold, crisp days will feel just as wintry. Hopefully we will get some sunshine though its been pretty cloudy for a while now.

[AWD]

If it ain't going to Snow not much point it being cold. Quite happy to push 2inches of Snow off the car, scraping off frost is just depressing!!

We all have our own weather likes/dislikes to which we are all entitled too mate.

If it won't snow, then this is the next best thing for me. Still very Wintery weather.

I respect the fact its disappointing for snow though.

[offerman]

Nice one jethro.

Gt the odd flake here now to, more sleet than snow but the odd wet flake now showing. Maybe a little snow later who knows, we had fair bit of rain today.

[DanDorsetUK]

nice toasty 6oc here in bournemouth still

[A.J]

Yes AJ, but some of the progged cold for example, admittedly on the right side of the battleground zones, have some decent prolonged cold to look forward to. The sooner there is snowcover the better and most elements of the forecasting suites will have to modify things more favourably. Undeniably I could in a very good locality but that is neither here nor there due to the uncertainty of wher the BATTLEGROUND zone falls.

Check this out for the depth of entrenched cold potential, also chek your own loaction.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

Below is the current view from the MetO.

Headline:

Cold and frosty overnight, rain and snow in the northwest.

This Evening and Tonight:

A cold and frosty night across many parts, as outbreaks of rain and snow gradually clears the south giving the risk of icy stretches. Further rain and snow will spread southeastwards across western Scotland later.

Sunday:

Rain, and increasingly snow away from western coasts will continue to spread southeastwards, reaching Wales and the Midlands during the evening. Otherwise, dry, bright but cold with spells of sunshine.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Cloudy with snow in many areas on Monday, but rain in southwest. On Tuesday and Wednesday, many areas dry and bright, but frosty. Occasional wintry showers in east.

Issued at: 1600 on Sat 12 Jan 2013

The specifics will change at short range but I don't think the trend will go away.

Thereafter the period up to January 26th is even more of interest as I have suggested before. By then, the cold air will be deeply entrenched over a large part of the UK too. Here are the current feelings from the MetO at that range.

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2013 to Saturday 26 Jan 2013:

There remains a lot of uncertainty in the details throughout this period, however on the whole it should remain on the cold side across many parts of the United Kingdom, with a good deal of dry and frosty weather, especially for central areas. There will also be some sleet and snow to watch out for on occasion, with perhaps eastern areas most likely at risk seeing any significant snowfall. Also there will be an ongoing risk of icy stretches overnight, and freezing fog may also be an issue during the cold and clearer nights. Some milder conditions and more persistent rain and hill snow though may fringe into western areas on occasions throughout the period.

IT SIMPLY SPELLS BATTLEGROUND UK to me. It has been a long time since such an awesome development has taken place so bring it on I say.

solid post mate

[Nights King]

I've been out all day so haven't caught up with the thread or the latest advice as to what we can expect tonight, but I can report it's snowing here! It's very wet snow and everywhere's soggy from the rain today/overnight so it's going to have to get a lot heavier to stand any chance of settling, but it is snow, not sleet.

You should drive just up the road jeth....

settling on the grass and cars here although it will melt fast once it stops unless it continues for a while yet. 0.9c now

Not good news about monday though lets just hope for one last westward correction although I have my doubts as meto have been very good recently.

[offerman]

Ah we'll so no snow for the west on Monday, if its rain then attention should turn to flood hit areas as this isn't going to help them at all.

[AWD]

Remember, if we have mild air - no chance of snow

If we have cold air then there is always the risk of snow.

Disappointing regarding Monday, but take that out of the equation and we have a very cold week ahead off us taking both the GFS & UKMO at face value.

Lets hope for a continuation of this theme if we can't have snow. Better than the dross & flooding we have recently experienced.

[gottolovethisweather]

Pompey, when did I.F downgrade this, on a tv bulletin? Atlantic crashing in for when?

It was always attempting to come in and will continue to do so BUT where the battle lines end up being drwan, prepare for some snow.

[iowpompeylee]

he did not say anything of the sort...either post accurately, or don't post at all....the choice is yours

he said the Atlantic is more progressive.so snow turning to rain upto Swindon.so the more east you are the better it is.where I live that would mean exactly the post I put....

[jethro]

Having said it won't settle...... it is. Just had a really heavy spurt with flakes the size of 50p's

[gottolovethisweather]

If it ain't going to Snow not much point it being cold. Quite happy to push 2inches of Snow off the car, scraping off frost is just depressing!!

It never snows when its warm though.

First piece of the climate puzzle is to get the cold in, second part you need the precipitation to slowly turn to ICY wonderness.

Frost can be beautiful IMHO but each to their own and add to that, a chance of a full day of sun is a blinking rarity too.

The progged rainfall for the far Southwest is the biggest concern of mine.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Stoxs]

i can report some sleet at around 3pm here mid hampshire.

best we have had so far this winter.

quick look through the latest GFS run and it is trending to stay cold for most well into next week,

there will be times when south/ south west might turn milder for a while .

I think i have seen the first evidence of SSW on the GFS, polar vortex showing major stress with 2 large streaks of warm air heading right through the middle.

This can only bode well for the next few weeks if cold ya thing.

remeber many of our area have seen snow this winter this time it might be others who see it.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Stoxs

[Mapantz]

In these situations you've just gotta wait until the event starts happening, there's no point in getting worked up over it.

[gottolovethisweather]

UKMO also very cold ala GFS for whole of next week.

Downgrades in snow potential unfortunetly, but good upgrades so far on cold potential.

Yes, let's hope it doesn't become a 50:50 but then again, I imagine we need the entrenched cold to prolong and thereby delay the atlantic and produce the battleground snowfall.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Look at these temperatures next week;

Brrrrrrrrr!!!

I know its 4/5/6 days away etc, but it has good support from the UKMO too and it shows that just because the Atlantic manages to push east further on Monday, we don't go into zonal, its just a blip.

Anyway, I shall remind you all of tomorrow too;

Disappointed about Monday, but stepping back and looking at the wider picture, very happy so far tonight. Much more Wintery outlook, and snow could crop up at any time.

[Mapantz]

Anybody got access to the NMM model? If you have, do not have a look lol

[Mark Parsons]

Light sleety rain just started here. I'd be very surprised if it doesn't turn to light snow, despite the lack of forecast for it (Ex Northern girl, used to "feeling" it coming)

Really!!!

[AWD]

Anybody got access to the NMM model? If you have, do not have a look lol

To be expected after the NAE.

[gottolovethisweather]

he said the Atlantic is more progressive.so snow turning to rain upto Swindon.so the more east you are the better it is.where I live that would mean exactly the post I put....

Hi pompey, can you simply qualify it with IMBY next time, to save us and anybody else from any confusion.

Chin up, the models are only projections of what the future may hold. You may well get lucky (assuming you want snow) over time.

Edited January 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[kumquat]

Current temp (Filton Martyn Hicks' site http://www.martynhicks.co.uk/weather/data.php?page=live )

Temp 2.8C

DP 0.8

Both falling quite rapidly and looking sleety out there under heavy (ish) ppn. Could turn to snow over the evening if we get lucky.

68m ASL

[dec10snow]

Meteoric, weathered app is awesome, had rain on us they changed to sleet and now changing, radar precipitation type if so accurate, recommend getting it if you have iPhone iPad.

I couldn't find the said app?