London & South East Regional Discussion

[Met4Cast]

2 different forecasts just on BBC....

Thats without bringing ITV forecasts into the mix!

[Icebox]

again a look at nae tonights update

i see that warm front way to our west

gfs 18z tonight well out of sync with the other models

do not rule some snow flurries for us tomorrow

From one John to another, What are your thoughts regarding the models handling of the current set-up? It seems to me they are all toying with differing evolutions, hence when we think we are going to have model agreement one of them jumps ship and runs with a scenario already run previously by another model

(primarily GFS & ECM ). I honestly believe FI starts around 36-48 hrs I took a step back from the models today just popped in the model discussion now and then, having looked at them tonight I'm really not to sure what to think. UKMO looks pretty tasty but I'm still going with the ECM, so I'm praying for an upgrade tomorrow!

With regard to the snow potential (which it still is imho ) early next week I think we need a small correction west so we have a bit more margin for error, But I feel Wednesday/Thursday is a better bet the fax looks good with unstable air and a nice E/NE--N/E we must be in with a chance of a streamer or two surely?

John.

[john pike]

From one John to another, What are your thoughts regarding the models handling of the current set-up? It seems to me they are all toying with differing evolutions, hence when we think we are going to have model agreement one of them jumps ship and runs with a scenario already run previously by another model

(primarily GFS & ECM ). I honestly believe FI starts around 36-48 hrs I took a step back from the models today just popped in the model discussion now and then, having looked at them tonight I'm really not to sure what to think. UKMO looks pretty tasty but I'm still going with the ECM, so I'm praying for an upgrade tomorrow!

With regard to the snow potential (which it still is imho ) early next week I think we need a small correction west so we have a bit more margin for error, But I feel Wednesday/Thursday is a better bet the fax looks good with unstable air and a nice E/NE--N/E we must be in with a chance of a streamer or two surely?

John.

hi ice

see ian fergusions post on sw thread

the chart for thursday 00

now remember the fax chart for wednesday

trying not to ramp but that is streamer territory

as for monday i do feel we will see a correction west tomorrow

i am glad i have not got to provide a forecast paid wise as you could get it

horribly wrong here

[john pike]

hi ice check this

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75521-southwest-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-12th-january-2013/page__st__560#entry2487189

[john pike]

sorry ice

i will always take the output of ukmo over gfs and ecm anytime

[Jezzer]

hi ice check this

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2487189

Interesting, thanks John

[Icebox]

hi ice

see ian fergusions post on sw thread

the chart for thursday 00

now remember the fax chart for wednesday

trying not to ramp but that is streamer territory

as for monday i do feel we will see a correction west tomorrow

i am glad i have not got to provide a forecast paid wise as you could get it

horribly wrong here

Agreed Meto have a thankless task at the moment, I'm liking those wet bulb charts Ian F posted very nice of Exeter to allow them out into the public domain....... I don't suppose there is any chance he could post a link to MOGREPS too!

I still cannot get excited about the Monday/Tuesday event though, mother nature seems determined to put every barrier possible in the way.

[Icebox]

sorry ice

i will always take the output of ukmo over gfs and ecm anytime

UKMO has been consistent of late JP but we have seen some dramatic climbdowns before..... mind you they all do that!

[london-snow]

Right Ladies & Gentleman a little shopping list for you over the next 48 hours my seven steps to snow -

1 ~ Red Bulls or coffee.

2 ~ cigarettes if you smoke.

3 ~ Snow boots.

4 ~ Camera to take photos.

5 ~ Ruler for measurement.

6 ~ Holy bible for the mild sector.

7 ~ Prozac if things go wrong.

[john pike]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Issued at - 12 Jan 2013, 11:46

Valid from - 14 Jan 2013, 00:05

Valid to - 14 Jan 2013, 23:59

An area of sleet and snow will come eastwards across England during the early morning, probably becoming light and patchy later in the morning as it slows down over eastern areas. However, later in the day it is expected to intensify again, at the same time turning back to rain in places. Through the day there is the risk of 5 cm accumulations in places, and more than that above 200 m. However, there is greater than average uncertainty at this range, especially in the extent to which snow affects southern counties, and it is quite possible that the Alert will be upgraded to an amber Warning if confidence increases.

The public are advised to monitor the forecast and to be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

Issued at - 12 Jan 2013, 12:28

Valid from - 15 Jan 2013, 00:05

Valid to - 15 Jan 2013, 23:55

Showery outbreaks of snow will affect parts of the east on Tuesday, in some places adding a few cm to existing accumulations. Over Scotland and northern England showers will often fall as rain near coasts. Over East Anglia and southeast England, conditions will improve markedly by afternoon. Ice will also be a hazard in these areas.

The public are advised to be aware of the risk of disruption to transport.

[Icebox]

Right Ladies & Gentleman a little shopping list for you over the next 48 hours my seven steps to snow -

1 ~ Red Bulls or coffee.

2 ~ cigarettes if you smoke.

3 ~ Snow boots.

4 ~ Camera to take photos.

5 ~ Ruler for measurement.

6 ~ Holy bible for the mild sector.

7 ~ Prozac if things go wrong.

Or a very laid back approach......

[john pike]

did anyone think the met office are warning of something

but do not want to commit until the last minute

[Icebox]

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=2

Issued at - 12 Jan 2013, 11:46

Valid from - 14 Jan 2013, 00:05

Valid to - 14 Jan 2013, 23:59

An area of sleet and snow will come eastwards across England during the early morning, probably becoming light and patchy later in the morning as it slows down over eastern areas. However, later in the day it is expected to intensify again, at the same time turning back to rain in places. Through the day there is the risk of 5 cm accumulations in places, and more than that above 200 m. However, there is greater than average uncertainty at this range, especially in the extent to which snow affects southern counties, and it is quite possible that the Alert will be upgraded to an amber Warning if confidence increases.

The public are advised to monitor the forecast and to be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

Issued at - 12 Jan 2013, 12:28

Valid from - 15 Jan 2013, 00:05

Valid to - 15 Jan 2013, 23:55

Showery outbreaks of snow will affect parts of the east on Tuesday, in some places adding a few cm to existing accumulations. Over Scotland and northern England showers will often fall as rain near coasts. Over East Anglia and southeast England, conditions will improve markedly by afternoon. Ice will also be a hazard in these areas.

The public are advised to be aware of the risk of disruption to transport.

There is no way this is a done deal yet JP I think we'll have a few more twists and turns yet...... hopefully positive ones!

[steveinsussex]

Those are old warnings??

[john pike]

hi ice

i do believe everyone in the south east will see snow

on monday onwards

the awkward bit is how much

maybe tomorrow night as well

[Icebox]

did anyone think the met office are warning of something

but do not want to commit until the last minute

Reading between the lines yes........ although some of the output tonight goes against that, mind you they havn't put out another update so they must be happy with what they have gone with.

[john pike]

Those are old warnings??

no new ones on their site at present

[london-snow]

hi ice

i do believe everyone in the south east will see snow

on monday onwards

the awkward bit is how much

maybe tomorrow night as well

Explanations for feeling so confident?

[john pike]

Explanations for feeling so confident?

london

have a read of my posts

i have posted enough of my thoughts tonight

i am tired and going to bed

goodnight all

[Icebox]

Explanations for feeling so confident?

Well I will sit on the fence at the moment I would like to see the 00zs before trying to judge which way it will go. With so much flux in the model output at the moment you cannot give a definative answer......

london

have a read of my posts

i have posted enough of my thoughts tonight

i am tired and going to bed

goodnight all

Goodnight JP

[london-snow]

Good night John & here are my current thoughts re Monday pm :

1. Westward correction as proven time after time in the past.

2. First batch of snowfall that hits and settles aids temperatures and decreases the margin for things to go wrong.

3. Possible slowing of second front timing is quite crucial i.e the more delayed the better into nightfall.

[Icebox]

Good night John & here are my current thoughts re Monday pm :

1. Westward correction as proven time after time in the past.

2. First batch of snowfall that hits and settles aids temperatures and decreases the margin for things to go wrong.

3. Possible slowing of second front timing is quite crucial i.e the more delayed the better into nightfall.

I think that could well be the MO take on things......... But it is the same problem we have had for a week now, more runs needed before we know which way it will go.

I think that could well be the MO take on things......... But it is the same problem we have had for a week now, more runs needed before we know which way it will go.

Two edits on that last post, must be getting tired. Goodnight all.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Icebox

[john pike]

Good night John & here are my current thoughts re Monday pm :

1. Westward correction as proven time after time in the past.

2. First batch of snowfall that hits and settles aids temperatures and decreases the margin for things to go wrong.

3. Possible slowing of second front timing is quite crucial i.e the more delayed the better into nightfall.

hi london

sorry if a bit short a moment ago

i have exactly the same thoughts

i am going to run solely on 12z runs

early morning fax charts may be interesting as well

goodnight all

[Mark Neal.]

Night John.

[london-snow]

At this point in time i am going to say that the following areas west of the following locations are more likely to see sleet/rain rather than snow.

A line from Oxford stretching south towards the Newbury area and further s-se towards Pourthmouth & Southsea.

The further east you are the increased risk of snow you get.

Jackpot Areas

A line from Milton Keys diving southeastwards through say east of woking ( W-SW London Areas ) to heathfield way.