London & South East Regional Discussion

[chionomaniac]

I suppose it depends on what there model ukv4 says aswell, do you really think the nae has this correct ed? Tomorrow looks a wash out for central England west if it is, it moves east every frame , have you any thoughts mate?

Yes, predicting snow is bloomin' difficult and unless you get -10ºC 850's there will always be borderline scenarios that are difficult to predict one way or the other.

[Methuselah]

Cloudy, 2.5C, a few very light snow flurries...

[Laurence Hill]

its funny when the presenters always have a worried look on their face when they mention snow, and when they mention mild their faces light up and they grin like a cheshire cat

sadly most of joe public don;t like snow, too much of an inconvenience to them even though it only happens once in a blue moon, but they still moan about it

You are right, I suppose when you think about it, the majority of weather presenters are "luvvies" really, more qualified in acting and putting on the "right" expression that they consider is right for most of their audience. It is annoying, why don't they just say it like it is.

Can also class it as a bit irresponsible if they attempt to gloss over dodgy weather that can affect people.

[The Beast From The East]

Looking very good on the models this morning to me. Was a bit worried about Mondays snow/rain event down here but I feel there will be more potential for snow between Monday night and Wednesday coming in off the North Sea

Good week a head I feel.

[tonbridgemole]

NE winds for wednesday bound to bring some snow showers

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Yes, predicting snow is bloomin' difficult and unless you get -10ºC 850's there will always be borderline scenarios that are difficult to predict one way or the other.

Well Iv just watched the breakfast weather and IMO it looked a very good forecast, 5cm tonight with more over high ground and then more snow tomorrow, he stressed his uncertainties , and said the southernmost counties and western parts may have more rain with snow mixed in , especially over high ground, to me that he still looked uncertain , and the computer model sort of jumped over the midlands as if they didn't know what to show , but then showed the snow from say Oxford , maybe Swindon , east. This isn't a done deal yet folks.

[Jayces]

Morning folks.

Heading the wrong way this morning for Monday on the models :-(

As it stands it's going to to be snow AM, sleet / rain afternoon evening and then snow during the night for us. Unfortunately the heaviest precipitation would be sleet / rain.

That is what the 0z are showing and the Meto update done this morning at 6am.

Of course going by my own advice we won't know until Monday afternoon what will happen.

After that though it looks cold for a week :-)

[Jo S]

Morning all ,couldnt sleep much last night,thinking about whats going to happen,still very exciting and looking good

[Snowman31]

good morning all. So where is the snowline for monday currently?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interesting...Front moving through a lot quicker... I think we will see some upgrades today

Edited January 13, 2013 by Surrey

[snowrye]

No change on the BBC as yet,still showing rain for us tomoz,without being a doom merchant I think I won't be sledging just yet.

[snowbob]

Latest bbc forecast saying second band all rain south of London

This will change anyway

But hopefully for the better for us

[loafer]

Good morning.

The simple answer is it keeps moving about!

The problem is a warm sector moving in which is best illustrated by the Wet Bulb chart here:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=thfr&HH=36&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

at lunchtime on Monday.

People with far more knowledge than me have pointed out that by then we will have had snow in the SE, so the freeze level may well come down - the marginality is no more than a degree or two and that the GFS is often too pushy in bringing in fronts from the West.

As such, there is very much everything to play for...the models could easily change by 50 miles through virtually a statistical rounding error, and change the mood amongst us model watchers!

The other interesting area is the convective snow coming off the North Sea on Wednesday, best shown by the thin lines on the fax chart here:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=fronts&MODELLTYP=3&BASE=-&VAR=ukmoan&HH=84&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

which brought large amounts of snow to Kent and Sussex in 2010.

[Brocken Spectre]

Just watched Matt on BBC News and he seemed to suggest that the snow line would be the Thames.

North will be snow overnight and in morning, South rain with snow at elevations.

The line will so fine and fluid expect the unexpected and for some prepare for disappointment.

The good news, cold rest of week with snow showers for the East.

[snowbob]

Even if it is rain tomorrow

Come Monday night the mild margin buggers off and we are in with more chances tue wed in my opinion

Bring it on

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Hang on...If my knowledge is correct..Those 2 troughs on the East coast would be pouring showers in!!!!!!!!!!1111

# snowy!

I bloody hope these don't change..I know they will but... Wednesday

Edited January 13, 2013 by Surrey

[snowbob]

That's looking very nice surrey

I always find predicted snowfalls are always a let down

I much prefer situations where the forecasters have got it wrong.

Element of surprise seems to create better snowfalls just my opinion of course

Looking forward to this week

Edited January 13, 2013 by snowbob

[bobbydog]

morning! for those worrying about tomorrows snow, here's how it looks at the moment-

tonight the first front moves in, getting weaker as it moves across our region but possibly giving a decent covering to many areas with a few cm possible.

late morning, the second front moves into our region falling as snow everywhere initially, but possibly turning to sleet or rain for a time in areas to the south west of london, mainly hampshire and west sussex, before turning back to snow late afternoon/evening. this could give a few cm everywhere.

there is still an element of uncertainty here, because if the 'warm sector' is further south and west it may well fall as snow all the way through.

that is looking fairly likely, as the Met office charts indicate-

for the rest of the week, well the Met office update sums it up nicely-

"

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Tuesday, very cold, bright or sunny intervals and snow showers, some possibly heavy near coasts. Wednesday and Thursday, very cold with a biting northeasterly wind and heavy snow showers."

the models are showing very cold and varying amounts of snow for at least a week but beyond that, there is too much uncertainty to say how it will turn out. the likelihood is more of the same though.

for anyone wondering about the SSW affects the weather, here's an excellent, easy to understand explanation from peter gibbs. it also explains why we might as well ignore any forecast beyond a week during this SSW event -

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/20998895

[Great Plum]

This could become one of these situations where Reigate Hill gets plastered and the town doesn't... (Not good news for the m25!)

[Jayces]

Maybe the rain will settle ;-)

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Seee yu later warm front on those faxs...Tonight will tell...But I think my snow line will need up dating and will be doing later...

Looks a lot better though

[snowbob]

Seee yu later warm front on those faxs...Tonight will tell...But I think my snow line will need up dating and will be doing later...

Looks a lot better though

a perfect time for sneaky little upgrades

Throughout the day

[NO LONGER POSTING]

a perfect time for sneaky little upgrades

Throughout the day

Very much so I am feeling the upgrades today....

[Col Berkshire]

I may be wrong, but haven't the fax charts over the last day or so always shown the warm sector to the west? Maybe other factors are leading to a 'possible' rain event in our region?

[IDO]

Current NAE forecast for Monday:

Midnight Mon/Tue:

All very borderline Monday, could go better or worse for snow. Especially as none of the hi-res models agree on the position of the critical low (for late Monday, critical esp. SE). Probably wont be sure till the fronts hit the SE.