East Anglia & Three Counties Regional Discussion

[If Wishes made Weather]

Just been looking at the modeling for tomorrow afternoon and its possible as SK notes that the Thames Valley could be the dividing line as SK notes, north of the M25 should be all snow. Its interesting how small geographical features (such as slight unevenesses classed as hills in southern England) make a difference to weather in such marginal situations.

[Heisenberg]

Could that streamer reach this far in to us?

[Essex Boy]

Anyone care to be bold and draw an updated map with the dividing line? I promise I won't hold you to it!

[saint]

North of the M25 eh? Gonna be a bit tight one for us then!

Edited January 13, 2013 by saint

[Hughsey]

Could that streamer reach this far in to us?

I'd say its unlikely, I think those showers will fail to move far inland, I could be wrong though. Edited January 13, 2013 by Hughsey

[Heisenberg]

North of the M25 eh? Gonna be a bit tight one for us then!

God i hope we get some...my kids will kill me if we dont lol

[tinybill]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1358034722&zoom=9&lon=0.60&lat=51.65

worth keeping a eye on it i think last year one grew very fast

[PurpleButterfly]

Got the odd flake falling from the sky here in luton (north)

I shall be watching my trusty lamp post tonight! 😊

[If Wishes made Weather]

Interesting this Thames streamer thing - is it caused by the slightly shallower water in the estuary, or because there is less salt concentration in the water there?

[Dan the Man]

Now I'm very confused - just watched the 11.57 BBC forecast; the first band of snow will almost be non existant for the south of the region and the snow line looks like its moving progressively north for the second band.

Downgrade on the MetO forecast for our area just to light snow apart from at midday tomorrow.

[Hammer]

No wonder confusion. For East of England no mention of rain when it seems there is a chance. I appreciate they can't drill down to every town but if the national weather site says snow, met office app says snow and then it rains you have to wonder if there is any point in having a generic forecast updated at 3 in morning but not since.

Today:

Some bright or sunny spells but staying cold after a widespread frost early on, and with some wintry showers likely, particularly across parts of Norfolk. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Tonight:

Staying very cold. Gradually clouding over with snow spreading from the northwest to all parts. This will lead to some accumulations, especially later, also some very icy conditions. Minimum temperature -3 °C.

Monday:

Cloudy and very cold, the early snow clearing for a time, but then further snow arriving during the afternoon. Some accumulations and remaining icy in places. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

Updated: 0319 on Sun 13 Jan 2013

[tinybill]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

that got it expanding now over Essex and Suffolk

[Jason T]

Now I'm very confused - just watched the 11.57 BBC forecast; the first band of snow will almost be non existant for the south of the region and the snow line looks like its moving progressively north for the second band.

Downgrade on the MetO forecast for our area just to light snow apart from at midday tomorrow.

I think it was always really,Tomorrow afternoon / eve. To produce the bulk of it. Anything from now till then bonus. Very interesting week coming up though.

[saint]

I think it was always really,Tomorrow afternoon / eve. To produce the bulk of it. Anything from now till then bonus. Very interesting week coming up though.

I'd agree with Jason here.

This is the gritting update from Herts CC: 'For Mon 14th Jan .Risk of patchy light snow overnight & heavier persistent sleet or snow tomorrow morning.'

[Dexter29]

I think it was always really,Tomorrow afternoon / eve. To produce the bulk of it. Anything from now till then bonus. Very interesting week coming up though.

There are always delays!

Yesterday morning it was showing snowfall for Monday morning rush hour. Then heavy snow again PM

Today: only a slight dusting tomorrow morning with a 50/50 chance of rain/snow tomorrow PM and talk of waiting until Wednesday for real snow now.

I'm all for just waiting to see what falls from the sky, but this charts are making me nervous i can't lie.

North of the region should have ALL snow which is good for them.

[Suburban Streamer]

Lets take a look at the evaporative cooling element from the GFS - the Wet Bulb Freezing Levels.

Generally for snow, you want these at or below 200m:

As you can see, its mid afternoon tomorrow that these raise to their highest, though most of the region should still be okay even taking this output at face values (300m would likely give wet snow, 400m would be sleet bordering rain)

When you take into account the GFS is the most aggressive with the warm sector, and it still tends to underplay evaporative cooling, the above suggested northern M25 borderline looks like a decent call at the present time.

This frame shows the issues with the low resolution of the GFS for nowcast situations:

There is no way that it will be all rain right up into Yorkshire without a monumental change in the air profiles, and the reason such a scenario is shown on the GFS is because each pixel takes up an entire region!

SK

Thanks sk, great post

[bluearmy]

as we get closer, the downgrades continue. maybe best not to expect too much from tomorrow and then wait for tues/wed when the air will be cold enough to support anything falling from the sky being white. the further north and east in the area the best chance to get a decent covering but then i wonder how much there will actually be on this second front and how quickly it will go through. (i'm ignoring the first one now - it seems to be nothing more than a flurry maker)

[TheBigFreeze]

as we get closer, the downgrades continue. maybe best not to expect too much from tomorrow and then wait for tues/wed when the air will be cold enough to support anything falling from the sky being white. the further north and east in the area the best chance to get a decent covering but then i wonder how much there will actually be on this second front and how quickly it will go through. (i'm ignoring the first one now - it seems to be nothing more than a flurry maker)

This is what I was thinking/saying earlier....that first front weakens so much but might still give a dusting for Norfolk/cambridgeshire, with the fun starting about 11a.m BUT that second front could move through in about 6 hours?? a few showers for Tuesday, but Wed/Thu we could see some heavy connective showers?? what do you think?

[One way or another]

as we get closer, the downgrades continue. maybe best not to expect too much from tomorrow and then wait for tues/wed when the air will be cold enough to support anything falling from the sky being white. the further north and east in the area the best chance to get a decent covering but then i wonder how much there will actually be on this second front and how quickly it will go through. (i'm ignoring the first one now - it seems to be nothing more than a flurry maker)

Unless I mis-heard I thought Darren Bett just said on news 24 that met office is going to upgrade warnings for EA to a miner for Monday night through Tuesday as the easterlies kick in

[Snowman.]

Damon low pressure is moving too far east we need that thing south and further west otherwise it just another Atlantic front any chance of that changing?

[One way or another]

Unless I mis-heard I thought Darren Bett just said on news 24 that met office is going to upgrade warnings for EA to a miner for Monday night through Tuesday as the easterlies kick in

Sorry meant amber, not miner - lack of cigarettes

[snowking]

Latest TAF's:

TAF EGSS 131102Z 1312/1418 02010KT 9999 SCT040 PROB30

TEMPO 1312/1318 6000 -SHRASN BKN014

BECMG 1318/1321 VRB04KT 6000

BECMG 1403/1406 -SN BKN012 PROB40

TEMPO 1405/1415 1000 SN BKN001

BECMG 1409/1412 18010KT PROB40

TEMPO 1415/1418 4000 RASN BKN004

Stansted - snow then rain/snow between 3-6pm tomorrow

TAF EGGW 131102Z 1312/1412 36010KT 8000 SCT040

BECMG 1312/1315 9999

BECMG 1318/1321 VRB04KT 5000 BR

BECMG 1402/1405 -SN BKN009 PROB40

TEMPO 1405/1412 0600 SN BKN001

BECMG 1409/1412 18010KT

Luton not going beyond 12pm tomorrow yet - snow up until then

SK

[MarcB]

At least the cold has arrived, we should not get to hung up on specifics even at this short range.

If we have learnt anything from the modern age of being able to watch the models, we know that precipitation can pop up at anytime from anywhere.

I guarantee that before the next 7 days is over, at some point at least some of us will see snow that was not forecasted.

Agree?

[snowking]

Sorry meant amber, not miner - lack of cigarettes

Yeah same was said on Countryfile for Tuesday - obviously Met Office are yet to get around to updating the website

SK

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Snow for East of England :

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 14 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Mon 14 Jan 2013

An area of sleet and snow will move eastwards across England during the early part of Monday, probably becoming light and patchy during the morning as it slows down over southeast England. However, another band of rain, sleet and snow is expected to be affecting northern England and southeast Scotland by daybreak, moving southeastwards through the day.

Accumulations of snow from the first band will be variable, but 2 cm is possible in many areas, with locally 5 cm from the Midlands northwards. The second band will be predominantly rain or sleet in the south Midlands and southern England, with snow more likely in northern and eastern England, where a further 2-5 cm of snow is possible in places.

Ice will be additional hazard at first on Monday morning.

With the potential for further snowfall across northeast and eastern England into Monday night, an Amber warning is likely to be issued for those areas.

The public are advised to monitor the forecast and to be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

Issued at: 1223 on Sun 13 Jan 2013