East Anglia & Three Counties Regional Discussion

[chilly milly]

Lovely to see John Pike and Coast still paying us a visit. Hi guys

Few flakes in the air here in Stevenage too.

[Floatylight]

I think that there might be something rather 'wrong' with that chart, Floaty: it shows snow for the areas likely to be under the 'warm sector', but rain elsewhere?

well yes,thats what i thought too,but dont want to be accused of calling a chart wrong just because it not snow over me lmao!

[starstream]

sorry matty j silly phone added quote before my reply

yes that was a fabulous surprise and the kids chuffed with the unexpected snow day!

light graupel falling now in east Danbury area

[Steve C]

I think that there might be something rather 'wrong' with that chart, Floaty: it shows snow for the areas likely to be under the 'warm sector', but rain elsewhere?

I interpreted it as a crude attempt to show snow over the North Downs / Chilterns.

[Heisenberg]

Hi guys...good to see the threads have been split. We seem to not be getting as much white as previous runs. Do we think this will upgrade somewhat before the event?

[ITSY]

Would be surprised if it didn't snow on Monday afternoon/evening - especially for us in central and northern parts of the region.

It could still be marginal, like the above chart showed, although even then it wouldn't surprise me to see a rural v urban setup.

Being honest, we won't know until we saw what falls. It will be cold either way and hopefully very snowy for some - or indeed ALL in this region.

[Essex Boy]

Little change from the NAE. Still suggests snowfall for the majority with the heaviest falls being predicted for the N of this region.

I expect alot of moaning from the London/SE thread though!

Yes, probably for the best that the threads got split. One thread will be on Prozac and the other high from all the copious amounts of snow!

[Iceni]

Mmmm no it doesnt

Not to say I necessarily believe that, but a bit misleading to say it shows an all snow event when the frame showing the heaviest precip shows only rain.

The one thing I would say - GFS doesn't really do evaporative cooling very well!

SK

I humbly apologise. Perhaps I was looking at a different set of charts GEFS 00Z (where it is all snow). Actually, it's snowing the odd flake or two right now as I've just been out with the dogs.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Iceni

[snowwonder]

Will elevation help with the snow tomorrow. For example near Luton airport is about 160m asl. Will that help re warm sector?

[Hammer]

I have checked my ipad apps as well as multiple sites to try and determine what will happen tomorrow and I have reached my conclusion, I have absolutely no idea what will happen from about midnight tonight onwards.

I hope this is of some use to everyone.

[Dan the Man]

Will elevation help with the snow tomorrow. For example near Luton airport is about 160m asl. Will that help re warm sector?

The airport itself has its own microclimate. It could be snowing on the airfield, but in the town centre it can fall as rain. There's about a 50m elevation difference between the two locations.

Also, a couple of work colleagues have said to me previously that there's a ridge around J12 of the M1 - when it snowed the other week, beyond that ridge it was snow rather than rain/snow mix.

[Stamford Bobby]

Nick F, on 13 January 2013 - 10:19 , said:

First band of ppn arriving in the wee hours should hopefully be snow, though probably light in nature - but enough for a dusting.

Very marginal for the second band of precipitation moving down tomorrow afternoon/evening - GFS suggests DPs wrong side of 0C for much of the SE, as we see the warm sector in close proximity sliding SE mixing in less cold air/higher DPs:

pdp_m15.png

pdp_m18z.png

... though 0C line following the ppn, so perhaps some back edge snow.

NAE at Monday 18z:

NAE_m18z.gif

Would say North Home Counties best chance for snow at lower levels, Chilterns and Downs likely to see snow too.

However, very marginal, so heavy ppn/evaporative cooling could tip the balance in favour of snow to lower levels ... usual case of nowcasting!

Good post Nick, shows that we shouldn't get too excited over 'upgrades' nor disheartened over 'downgrades'. Nowcasting word of the day today/tomorrow! Hoping my reasonable elevation (127m) and proximity to the Chilterns will help!

P.s. just bought NW Extra radar, well worth a few quid for the weather we have coming up over the next few weeks.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Bushey_Rob

[tinybill]

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=7&type=zoom&x=326&y=257

deff some growing off the Essex coast ,cant wait for country file to-night!!!

[snowking]

I humbly apologise. Perhaps I was looking at a different set of charts GEFS 00Z (where it is all snow). Actually, it's snowing the odd flake or two right now as I've just been out with the dogs.

No worries my friend

I'm still not convinced to be honest with how much the GFS makes of the dew points

Similar conditions here, with light snow flurries on and off.

Stansted TAF:

TAF EGSS 130502Z 1306/1412 07010KT 9999 SCT045

BECMG 1306/1309 01010KT PROB30

TEMPO 1309/1318 4000 -SHSN BKN014

BECMG 1321/1324 VRB04KT

BECMG 1401/1404 4000 -SN BKN009 PROB40

TEMPO 1402/1408 1400 SN BKN003

BECMG 1405/1408 18010KT

BECMG 1408/1410 5000 BR PROB40

TEMPO 1410/1412 2000 SN BKN004

So essentially light snow showers through today, then drier, then more light snow, becoming snow overnight into tomorrow morning.

Luton:

TAF EGGW 130502Z 1306/1406 01010KT 7000 SCT045

BECMG 1306/1309 9999

BECMG 1319/1322 VRB04KT

BECMG 1400/1403 3000 -SN BKN007 PROB40

TEMPO 1401/1406 0300 SN FZFG BKN001

BECMG 1404/1406 18010KT

The same without the light snow showers during the day today, and the risk of freezing fog with the snow

SK

Edited January 13, 2013 by snowking

[Hughsey]

Will elevation help with the snow tomorrow. For example near Luton airport is about 160m asl. Will that help re warm sector?

Should definitely help keep the precipitation as snow rather than sleet/rain to have elevation of 160m. I think Herts/Beds will do well out of tomorrow anyway.

[Paul Sherman]

Light snow grains blowing around here in Leigh On Sea ATM! It's a start!

[Dan the Man]

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action in one or more regions of England

Issued at: Sunday 13 January 2013 at 09:05

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions between 0900 on Sunday and 0900 on Friday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Staying cold with icy conditions across all but the far southwest of England throughout this week although temperatures recovering at times in some western regions. Snow expected to move southeastwards over all but far southwest of England from later Sunday, through Monday and, for the southeast, into Tuesday. Northern and eastern regions expected to have highest snow accumulations with little thaw of lying snow expected. Strengthening easterly winds will exacerbate the cold feel and bring further snow showers to eastern and some central areas.

[Floatylight]

where did that tiny bit of ppn that is giving these lttle showers pop up from lol?

Just goes to show really:)

[Dexter29]

Light snow in Epping

[Grinzzz]

Is the radar in the SE still on the blink? Showers over southend area keep appearing and disappearing

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

Had some light snow here already.... tiny grains, but a good start hopefully

[Grinzzz]

Morning all,

Had some light snow here already.... tiny grains, but a good start hopefully

You must have better eyesight than me!

[Team Jo]

Light snow grains blowing around here in Leigh On Sea ATM! It's a start!

Send them downriver please!!!

[Dexter29]

Running the radar loop from 6am until present.

The band of ppn pushing SE is weakening considerably already. I guess this is confirming that any snow overnight into early hours will be a dusting at best

[Paul Sherman]

Send them downriver please!!!

They are on their way, Benfleet reporting snow in t'other thread!