London & South East Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>

[Downpour]

Again I should not be doing this as coast might tell me off..

But for £3.49 for one month you are getting this kind of radar..

7 DAY MONEY BACK PROMISE TOO!

Hi Surrey - can I buy this as an iPhone app? Cheers.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Again, way earlier than forecast. I really don't think BBC London News have got a handle on this at all. Their 2230 last night was a fail - the first snow forecast of the winter and they blew it. For those that didn't see it, they confidently pronounced that the front wouldn't even reach the SE...

Er????????? RG12 Big flakes of snow coming down??

[WillinGlossop]

Bbc south east.... 903am snow into kent this afternoon and heavy snow tonight for most of region.....

[SnowBungle]

Welcome to Netweather - what a time to choose to un-lurk!!!!

It got too exciting to watch from a distance!! I have WeatherPro premium on my iThings and I'm a glued to that and these boards- trying to keep a step ahead of things. My wife is getting a bit concerned for my sanity and well-being.

[SHM040519]

Will this rap around affect east Kent? Thanks!

Canterbury I am

Got a inch here nothing on road or pavements tho!

[Downpour]

Looks like a slight adjustment south of the snow line this morning by about 20 miles based on regional forecasts (and frankly they are now the best bet at this range). Basically its now the Thames!!!!

Crikey, its going to be close this afternoon. A little 20 mile tweak south and London grinds to a halt, a little adjustment north and everyone wonders what the fuss is about.

Jason

Yes - some of that stuff coming through the north Cotswolds now looks beefy and is headed straight for London. It's ~0c here in the NW suburbs with decent dew points. As you say, it could be quite naughty. Only saving grace is that it is due after rush hour (ETA London-Chilterns border 10am IMO)

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Here is my take going by the snow that is falling outside my office window not forcasted LOL

Snow-rain-snow I think lol

[london-snow]

Morning all i hope you all had a nice suprise.

Just got up after staying up until 3am with a few hardcore snow fans on here. Got a nice dusting here which i am happy with.

As i am away from my pc can anyone tell me if that little mild sector has been shunted or squeezed out in the overnight runs.

Cheers All.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It looks like the front is producing some showers ahead of it...I got on over me now coming down pretty fast here..

[Lampostwatcher]

It looks like the front is producing some showers ahead of it...I got on over me now coming down pretty fast here..

is it snow

[Downpour]

Er????????? RG12 Big flakes of snow coming down??

Looks like that is a cheeky shower system ahead of the main front - that all said the big boy is coming up fast behind it! Way earlier than forecast... Ha!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

is it snow

Yes nice fluffy flakes and I am quite west of our region at work working in Bracknell

Much heavier now... LOVE IT

Edited January 14, 2013 by Surrey

[WillinGlossop]

Yes as TEITS points out, the impact of the wrap around is very difficult indeed to model.

The biggest thing with this particular wrap around of the frontal system is that it starts out in the north sea before moving inland - and thats where it becomes unpredictable as to just how much more moisture it picks up (not to mention where it then tracks)

As last night showed (by the fact its still snowing lightly outside my window now) once systems reach a body of water, they become very unpredictable. For those of you that have the facility to, run the radar sequence from last night back. You will notice that as the front approached from the west, it encountered (and partially created) some extra energy out in the north sea. Eventually this precipitation (just to the north of the wash) merged with the front and sent a renewed pulse of energy through the system, and so despite all the claims that the first front would fizzle out before reaching this region (numerous tweets from the pro's last night suggesting that modelling showed no snow cover across east anglia through last night) it didn't.

This second situation becomes even more complex. The first frontal system has slowed and is on the verge of stalling through the next few hours (its likely to sit just off the coast) - before it fades entirely, the second front catches it up, and the two fronts become one, re-energising the whole system. So thats our first unpredictability, how heavy the precip will actually be once it reaches the east of the UK.

Then as mentioned above, with the wrap around of this front taking energy out from the north sea, becomes even more unpredictable, and could throw the Met Office a curveball as we move through the evening (just as the precip across the Thames Estuary did last night)

SK

[Downpour]

Here is my take going by the snow that is falling outside my office window not forcasted LOL

Snow-rain-snow I think lol

Surrey - what is your location? Can't see it on the iPhone!

[Eskimo]

No pre-frontal shower activity, just the fragmentation of the first band. Any showery activity associated with the first band looks like interacting with the second band causing it to pep out, obviously plenty of moisture hence the difficult forecasting.

[Lampostwatcher]

Yes nice fluffy flakes and I am quite west of our region at work working in Bracknell

Much heavier now... LOVE IT

and that's just south of the Thames lol

[Snowman31]

The forecaster on BBC news said that rush hour in london could be tricky, he said it depends where exactly the dividing line between rain and snow ends up..

[Downpour]

Great post - eventually the system backed northerly just north of the capital hence this morning's dusting. Nevertheless, despite the difficulties, it has to go down as a nil points for the London News forecasters.

[Coast]

The forecaster on BBC news said that rush hour in london could be tricky, he said it depends where exactly the dividing line between rain and snow ends up..

So they don't know either back to the radar!!

[Downpour]

The forecaster on BBC news said that rush hour in london could be tricky, he said it depends where exactly the dividing line between rain and snow ends up..

Lol - isn't it their job to forecast that?

[Snowman31]

Typical that the dividing line is around London :-)

[MKN]

The forecaster on BBC news said that rush hour in london could be tricky, he said it depends where exactly the dividing line between rain and snow ends up..

Don't think anyone could give U a definate answer on that one. The reports over next hour in the midlands thread from myself and others should give U more of an idea. So far Intensity of the precip is a big factor i think.

[nanu]

Do you know ive that gut feeling that we are all going to have a big shock today with this system.. ok last night i got a dusting, but none of it is melting so the temps are right, ok we got cloud cover and no slightly warm sunrays to thaw this slight covering of snow, but if this remained the case wouldnt this cover also act to like a fridge and keep the dewpoints down etc so when the next band hits it keeps it as snow all the way through??

[jayney69]

Newbie here . Started snowing very lightly here (on and off) around half 6 (just outside Sittingbourne). Stopped now, and the sun's come out (typical - first time in days!). Got a dusting on roofs, grass and some pavements, but not on the roads.

[anything-but]

On phone here in canary wharf, is that 2nd front pepping up then? How's London looking for the next few hrs?