South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[Karl83]

Excellent! Clearly visible chunks of snow mixed in with the rain. Nice!

EDIT: Gutted, its just rain now.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Karl83

[Nights King]

Very light wet snow just starting to fall outside as the ppn seems to be reaching out to me ahead of main band

[dec10snow]

Why do I not have lamppost outside my bedroom!?!?

[Sexki11en]

Big wet snow here!!! Started as rain then turned more sleety. It's very wet, but definitely snow. Heavier than last night *eeeek*!

[Bristawl Si]

Wind is getting up and it's more sleety now - getting heavier.

One suspects if it holds/increases intensity that the mendips will get a decent covering, as Ian said earlier.

Edit: Raining now!

Edited January 14, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Polar Bear]

Some top analysis tonight, so no point in me adding anything else other than what I gathered from my assessment of the GEFS 12z suite, when used in conjunction to previous output.

FI ranges from 17th January out West to the 18th January further East, so I suggest much uncertainty as to this weekend's surface feature.

Breaking down the details a little further.

Cornwall has the briefest chance of some SNOW on the Saturday 19th January after tonights possibilities. Thereafter it should eventually turn milder but never into the mild/very mild category. This to be taken with a pinch of salt too as FI is suggested as around the 17th.

Dorset ensembles show a good chance of SNOW from the Thursday 17th January right through to the Sunday 20th January, being the last date that the cold air would be holding on at this stage. Same caveats apply as above.

My patch, I would interpret Berkshire ensembles as showing the Friday 18th January right through to the Sunday 20th January as being the period to watch for SNOWFALL and again, the 20th being the last date for which the cold is likely to hold on. Smallest amounts of precipitation most likely within this region, when compared to the much more favourable areas out West, where there could be some substantial totals, more especially at elevation.

As an aside, should I look to London, the ensembles show FI being around the 18th January, again showing much uncertainity and the best chances of SNOW cover the period from Friday 18th January right through to the Sunday 20th January. Once again, the usual caveats apply and I would suggest some SNOW is possible but not looking like amounting to very much at this stage.

ALL IN ALL, NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT FANTASY ISLAND IS SEEMINGLY CLOSER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED. ADD TO THAT, THE ATLANTIC STILL HOPES TO PUSH ALL ITS WEATHER RIGHT ACROSS THE UK, BUT EVEN THEN, IT WON'T HAVE FULLY ACHIEVED THIS BY NO EARLIER THAN THE 20TH JANUARY AT THE EARLIEST.

ALL SYSTEMS GO AS WE'RE STILL VERY MUCH ON FOR BATTLEGROUND UK COME LATE ON THURSDAY 17TH JANUARY.

We will need to watch all subsequent runs because the above evolution may well be far removed from the reality.

thanks GTLTW .. Great summary there. On the Wales system at the mo.. Isn't that moving quite quickly in your opinion? It did to me from the radar animation.and which is showing as mainly sleet?

[khodds]

Its literally by passed Wells by about a half mile at the moment!

[gottolovethisweather]

Nice one.

Interesting how the GEFS 12z suite also picked up on this rather late development too.

Keep checking your Lamp-posts, Air Temps and Dewpoints in the region of the arrows.

[AWD]

YAY. Light snow here now!

[divadee]

[noggin]

Nothing in Coalpit Heath (yet) but it's got much colder and windier.

[gloucesterlad]

This is johns daughter in Clifton... Lots of rain with snow mixed into it! But mostly rain...

[dec10snow]

Not sure it Ian is still here, but latest from his twitter:

W COUNTRY New assessment: possible 2-6cm local snow tonight Mendips, Exmoor, Quantocks, Blackdowns. Poss slushy Bristol/Som at lower levels

Now something falling here, either rain or sleet, not snow though

Edited January 14, 2013 by dec10snow

[karlos1983]

any chance of a dew point check and Temp for Poole, I'm having technical difficulties

[AWD]

Moderately heavy-light snow now (if that makes sense).

Quite decent flakes too.

[divadee]

any chance of a dew point check and Temp for Poole, I'm having technical difficulties

Christchurch is temp 2c dp 0c

[karlos1983]

Christchurch is temp 2c dp 0c

ooooh, that's more like it!!

[gloucesterlad]

This is johns daughter in Clifton... Lots of rain with snow mixed into it! But mostly rain...

She's hijacked my login ! (get yer own daughter ! )

John in Gloucester (Quedgeley - low down)

[latitude]

heavy moderate rain in yatton north somerset

Edited January 14, 2013 by ajpoolshark
edited to lower case...no need to shout

[Frosty_wsm]

plain old rain here, not even sleety as far as I can tell!

[Karl83]

Current precip type chart. Will it wont it turn to pink!?!?

Whoops got 2nd display in there.

Edited January 14, 2013 by Karl83

[dec10snow]

After the good old, shove your hand out the window test, sleet is falling! And quite heavily now!

[AWD]

Moderately heavy-light snow now (if that makes sense).

Quite decent flakes too.

Turning more sleety now but some big wet flakes still mixed in there.

[TimMB]

Rain with a tiny bit of sleet, better than a poke in the eye. :-)

Not expecting much being next to the sea.

[Polar Bear]

I reckon if I stood on the nearest hill in Newbury and looked west I could probably wave to the system as it sails past our area.