South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

[Mini tiger]

Ian F can only present on what information the models give/show him, and he also mentioned a degree of uncertainty. Also as many people on the NW forums, snow is difficult to predict, no one can be 100% correct all of the time..... I'm looking forward to see how the models develop over the next few days... Should be interesting to say the least

I understand, it must be a very tough job. Would love to see snow here, its so rare. When someone forecasts i get very excited . Do you think

i am in with a realistic chance of a good snowfall ?

[quantock girl]

as my missus will attest

Damn, first Daniel Craig gets married now Mr F!

[Karl83]

1.2c IMBY - Come on snow suprise us!

[cerneman]

Ask Fred? I wouldn't want to offer any more hype or drama.

Personnality and the love of meteorology, Enjoy your forecasts,

[divadee]

Not that I pay too much attention to this ap as it changes it mind as much as Katie Price changes her husbands but this is a new update tonight.

[karlos1983]

Temperature dropping fast here now, was 4.5C 1 hour ago, down to 2.3C now!!! IMBY

[BARRY]

Ask Fred? I wouldn't want to offer any more hype or drama.

You tell them Ian, us long standing members appreciate all your imput.

Edited January 14, 2013 by BARRY

[Nights King]

Sorry Mullender.

Anyway NAE shows fairly consistent signal for progressive transition to snow showers parts of Mendips (if trajectory works out!) So anywhere over 200m is possible....

Thanks very much.

As for friday I think we should all remain calm and just wait for thursday before we start to worry about whether dew points or 2m temperatures are conducive for it to settle or indeed fall.

temperature 1.2c dew point -1c so looking alright just need some luck with ppn

Edited January 14, 2013 by mullender83

[theprophecyman]

I understand, it must be a very tough job. Would love to see snow here, its so rare. When someone forecasts i get very excited . Do you think

i am in with a realistic chance of a good snowfall ?

I'm no pro, but if the 12Z verifies, then the entire SW would see snow this coming Friday I would guess,

Maybe with someone more exp may give a more accurate answer :-)

[wallopweather]

there was lying snow out this way wallop, Weyhill .

Was you snow less at wallop?

as others have said it was 90% rain by 10am.

Must admit I wasn't up until 8am but no signs of any snow at that time and no one around here mentioned any. Watched the radar on 'will it rain' last night and most of the wet stuff passed by on either side. Was dry here when I left for Amesbury at 9am. Came home around 10pm and the only winteriness I experienced was some splats of slush against the screen on the top of Beacon Hill. Sounds like we missed out by just a few miles.

[SupaSnowy]

I'm not sure Hampshire will get anything tonight, but it looks interesting further west. If it holds its strength. Could be a few surprises.

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting to note David Braine even meantioned the chance of some sleet for the SCILLY ISLES tomorrow. However this risk is probably quite low. Looks like the uppers wont be quite cold enough and the angle of attack not really becoming favourable until Friday.

Id say the angle of attack for Friday is probably one of the most favourable it can get for here.

[TheHumph]

I'm not sure Hampshire will get anything tonight, but it looks interesting further west. If it holds its strength. Could be a few surprises.

Difficult to see it getting to our neck of the woods SS but some may well see some wet snow from this band and some proper snow on higher ground or where localised temps are much lower. I'm still keeping an eye on the track of it though!!

[karlos1983]

Anyone know when the FAX rolls out?

[wallopweather]

You can quite clearly see it's heading for the hants/wilts/dorset border.

John

(on the hants/wilts/dorset border)

Fingers crossed for a little unexpected snow action. Who's running the sweep?

[Nights King]

My guess would be through banes, bristol somerset and dorset area curently.

Oh how I hope it hits us. Ive seen these situations before when you watch main ppn band missing you by 5 miles for several hours its so frustrating!

[Stoxs]

Must admit I wasn't up until 8am but no signs of any snow at that time and no one around here mentioned any. Watched the radar on 'will it rain' last night and most of the wet stuff passed by on either side. Was dry here when I left for Amesbury at 9am. Came home around 10pm and the only winteriness I experienced was some splats of slush against the screen on the top of Beacon Hill. Sounds like we missed out by just a few miles.

might have just scraped 1cm!! kids did make a few snow balls!!

was still lying around on roofs at 9am.

[karlos1983]

My guess would be through banes, bristol somerset and dorset area curently.

Oh how I hope it hits us. Ive seen these situations before when you watch main ppn band missing you by 5 miles for several hours its so frustrating!

I'm so used to seeing that exact thing happening, that I'm not getting my hopes up!

[Stoxs]

Fingers crossed for a little unexpected snow action. Who's running the sweep?

giving a bit of rotation form the northerly wind it will run dorset/ wiltshire at a guess, when i first saw it i thought Sailsbury.

think i will be in bed before that gets here!! if it got here!

[Iceberg]

This is the latest nae precip map for 9pm if you have radar you can see that even though nae picked up on the signal for the showers, it has massively underplayed them.

Current stream is over 100 miles long and over 30-40 miles wide in places so is more akind to a trough tbh.

Net weather radar shows it as a mix of sleet and snow, travelling due se, might be a more southern component but not until midnight IMHO.

[cornish snow]

Interesting to note David Braine even meantioned the chance of some sleet for the SCILLY ISLES tomorrow. However this risk is probably quite low. Looks like the uppers wont be quite cold enough and the angle of attack not really becoming favourable until Friday.

Id say the angle of attack for Friday is probably one of the most favourable it can get for here.

I would prefer a east or north east to be honest,with the low slipping underneath.

Looks like quite a bit of south wind mixed in which is always going to lift the temps.

[Iceberg]

Think we are looking at Bristol to north Devon Somerset border. So then whole of Somerset into Dorset and parts of west wilts.

Wells or so might be centre of it.

[Costa Del Fal]

I would prefer a east or north east to be honest,with the low slipping underneath.

Looks like quite a bit of south wind mixed in which is always going to lift the temps.

Yeah, not perfect but better than a long fetch of a south westerly. Who knows, will always be very marginal for us but im helped if the MO can predict snow for lands end. :lol:

[Gibby]

Not of specific interest to our patch but I have noticed how the front to the East has now formed its own Low centre which has turned winds NE around the Humber area pulling the remains of the snowfall back SW over Eastern England. There are already some potent snow showers further out in the North Sea moving SW towards the NE coast later tonight.

[wallopweather]

giving a bit of rotation form the northerly wind it will run dorset/ wiltshire at a guess, when i first saw it i thought Sailsbury.

think i will be in bed before that gets here!! if it got here!

Warminster to Salisbury was my thought to, Salisbury Plain will probably help steering it back West a bit. Won't bee stopping up to watch and to top it all the wife wants the PC so I'll have to sign out and stop watching the radar too. (Now where's the ipad?)