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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

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Schmalex Newbie

Schmalex

Posted
  • Location: Kingsclere, Hampshire
  • Location: Kingsclere, Hampshire
Posted

too early to tell....if (and it's a big if) 12z suite verify, then it will reach Newbury friday night into saturday giving substantial snowfall

Here's hoping.....

It'd be nice for us Central / Western Southerners to cop a big dump instead of watching our compatriots in Surrey / West Sussex get a pasting, leaving us to pick up the crumbs!!!!

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TheHumph Apprentice

TheHumph

Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
Posted

Looking at the Raintoday radar, is it my imagination or is that area of precipitation intensifying as it moves towards Bristol? Could produce something as it gets colder during the evenin/night.

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Again, thats Thursday at 7.00, no PPN forecast then, not until Friday at 3.00am (GFS). Nearly 24 hrs later.

prectypeuktopo.png

GFS Temps for above pic.....not exactly cold is it? Thats showing the MINIMUM temp.

ukmintemp.png

This could be why Ian F wasnt sure about settling snow.

Looks similar to feb 2009 temperature wise so may be a case of snow widely but slushy below 100m?

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

I'm sorry but i've heard it all before from Ian F. He enjoys the hype and the drama, then when the time comes it all goes TEITS up

By all means show me a single forecast I've ever given that wanders off-message from Chief Forecaster's briefings? Plus: as I am not a snow fan, I'm not prone to enjoy "hype and drama" as you rather insultingly suggest. I suspect few of my regional colleagues are even so obsessive about getting our message correct as to spend days abroad on holiday still getting UKMO briefings while away in Tunisia... as my missus will attest.

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Again, thats Thursday at 7.00, no PPN forecast then, not until Friday at 3.00am (GFS). Nearly 24 hrs later.

prectypeuktopo.png

GFS Temps for above pic.....not exactly cold is it? Thats showing the MINIMUM temp.

ukmintemp.png

This could be why Ian F wasnt sure about settling snow.

Still plenty cold enough for snow, not to mention the gfs take on things for this Friday isn't as good as either the ukmo or ecm.

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Corralejo, Fuerteventura.
  • Location: Corralejo, Fuerteventura.
Posted (edited)

Looking at the Raintoday radar, is it my imagination or is that area of precipitation intensifying as it moves towards Bristol? Could produce something as it gets colder during the evenin/night.

Yes, but one suspects it'll fall on the welsh mountains and then fizzle out- but you never know.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Stoxs Apprentice

Stoxs

Posted
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
  • Location: Salisbury , Wiltshire
Posted

Thought you had snow today? was gutted to see snow at the M4 / A34 interchange knowing that was only 20 mins drive away but I had to go West

there was lying snow out this way wallop, Weyhill .

Was you snow less at wallop?

as others have said it was 90% rain by 10am.

nice while it lasted, blimey the ground is wet now though!

There has been a real trend for the last 3 or 4 days for an atlantic attack around friday/ saturday, where and if this will produce minimal snow moderate snow or bucket loads is still undecided.

How far the snow band gets east and for the return to rain gets east is well Up in the air!!

Also there has been a distinct slow minor shift south which is great for us down here as long as it dose not end up through france!!

A shift south would help all alot as it would more likely stay as snow for longer!

All to play for, very interesting Models and weather

Better than RAIn .....

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Bonjangle Apprentice

Bonjangle

Posted
  • Location: S East Wales
  • Location: S East Wales
Posted

Looking at the Raintoday radar, is it my imagination or is that area of precipitation intensifying as it moves towards Bristol? Could produce something as it gets colder during the evenin/night.

Could do , fingers crossed

post-13443-0-59012900-1358194998_thumb.p

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Any thoughts on here on Friday in West Cornwall. Met Office have snow even for Lands End as low pressure looks like it will undercut the block forcing cold south easterly winds. Gusty winds forecast too. Blizzard conditions possible? Really hope this doesnt change!!!

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

Hi ian what is your take on the developing ppn over wales heading towards us?

I would have reported it myself if i had seen oops.gif

Edited by mullender83
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

By all means show me a single forecast I've ever given that wanders off-message from Chief Forecaster's briefings? Plus: as I am not a snow fan, I'm not prone to enjoy "hype and drama" as you rather insultingly suggest. I suspect few of my regional colleagues are even so obsessive about getting our message correct as to spend days abroad on holiday still getting UKMO briefings while away in Tunisia... as my missus will attest.

Damn!..Apologies.....I didn't spot Fred Sykes original post. It was against forum guidleines and shouldn't have slipped through....Deleted now! good.gif

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

By all means show me a single forecast I've ever given that wanders off-message from Chief Forecaster's briefings? Plus: as I am not a snow fan, I'm not prone to enjoy "hype and drama" as you rather insultingly suggest. I suspect few of my regional colleagues are even so obsessive about getting our message correct as to spend days abroad on holiday still getting UKMO briefings while away in Tunisia... as my missus will attest.

I just hope comments like that don't deter you from future invaluable comments we all enjoy in the thread Ian.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Ask Fred? I wouldn't want to offer any more hype or drama.

See the above post Ian....good.gif

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TheHumph Apprentice

TheHumph

Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
Posted

I just hope comments like that don't deter you from future invaluable comments we all enjoy in the thread Ian.

Hi Ian, please don't let the negativity of one person get to you. The vast majority on this forum welcome and really appreciate your expert knowledge and comments.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Any thoughts on here on Friday in West Cornwall. Met Office have snow even for Lands End as low pressure looks like it will undercut the block forcing cold south easterly winds. Gusty winds forecast too. Blizzard conditions possible? Really hope this doesnt change!!!

Would be brilliant timeing for you as you only moved down there, from the midlands :) hope you see some snow and good luck to all.

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

Hi ian what is your take on the developing ppn over wales heading towards us?

I would have reported it myself if i had seen oops.gif

Sorry Mullender.

Anyway NAE shows fairly consistent signal for progressive transition to snow showers parts of Mendips (if trajectory works out!) So anywhere over 200m is possible....

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latitude Newbie

latitude

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset
Posted

Ask Fred? I wouldn't want to offer any more hype or drama.

Very much appreciate your posts here Ian. But due to this being a public forum posts like that will happen.

Please stick around Ian!

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Icequeen Rookie

Icequeen

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Location: Swansea
Posted

I just hope comments like that don't deter you from future invaluable comments we all enjoy in the thread Ian.

ditto, I wander over from Swansea to have a gander :) I love our Derek but Mr Ferguson you come a close second in my book. Enjoy your insight :)

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Gibby Accomplished

Gibby

Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
Posted

The showers over Wales are spreading in area and look like extending into our patch West of Bristol, over the Mendips and down into Dorset. With air temperatures continuing to fall if these showers make it to us there is every chance of snow being seen over the coming hours. As they pass upper winds are turning more to the North directing any further showers directly South from Pembrokeshire to Cornwall later in the night leaving us clear, cold and potentially icy.

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jtay Veteran

jtay

Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
Posted

Hi ian what is your take on the developing ppn over wales heading towards us?

You can quite clearly see it's heading for the hants/wilts/dorset border.

John

(on the hants/wilts/dorset border)

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Thats right, its all about the undercut!

Could be slushy initially though. (Cornwall, Devon)

Makes for brilliant model watching, the Christmas drab is now a distant memory.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I'm sure Ian will appreciate the supportive comments made by members....The offending post has been removed, so with that in mind, probably best if we move the discussion forwards....Thanks everyone smile.png

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latitude Newbie

latitude

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset
Posted

That stuff coming SW out of Wales is interesting.

Ian said above 200m (Mendips)

Again, im harping on now, its just not cold enough at lower levels. Just my opinion, its 2.8 IMBY.

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